To do or not to do: Pyongyang’s seventh nuclear test calculations

ABSTRACT

A nuclear test often is as political as it is technical. The intricacies of domestic and external politics play into Pyongyang’s decisions on nuclear testing, going far beyond the technical aspects of such tests. This article explores the repercussions of the second North Korea-US summit in Hanoi in 2019 across all policy realms in North Korea and how domestic and external factors could inform and shape Kim Jong-un’s decision on a seventh nuclear test. In order to delve into what to look out for in 2024 and beyond, this article focuses on Pyongyang’s approach to the civilian economy as opposed to national defense and the reorientation of its foreign and South Korea policies as potential key indicators of Kim’s thinking on nuclear testing.

KEYWORDS:

• North Korea
• seventh nuclear test
• Kim Jong-un
• Hanoi Summit
• foreign policy
• economy

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Additional information

Funding

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Notes on contributors

Rachel Minyoung Lee

Rachel Minyoung Lee is a senior fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center. From 2000 to 2019, Lee was a North Korea collection expert and analyst with the US Government, where she covered North Korean domestic and foreign policy and a broad range of Korean Peninsula issues with implications for Pyongyang’s regime stability and regional security.