Education, opportunity and the future of work in the fourth industrial revolution

Abstract

It is widely believed digital technologies are transforming all aspects of economy and society, driven by scientific advances across interdisciplinary fields and innovations relating to artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, robotics, etc. But what, if anything, is revolutionary about these developments and what are the implications for the neo-liberal opportunity bargain based on a market competition where ‘learning equals earning’. This article outlines different interpretations of the ‘fourth industrial revolution’ presenting contrasting theories of labour scarcity and job scarcity, to highlight why we need to rethink education, opportunity and the future of work in a context of increasing job scarcity. This is urgent not because we are approaching the end of work, but the end of ‘knowledge’ work as understood in public policy, with no viable solution to how to create in a new opportunity bargain for a fair and efficient future of work.

Keywords:

• Labour scarcity
• job scarcity
• opportunity bargain
• generative AI
• digital Taylorism
• zero-sum productivity

Acknowledgements

This article builds on ideas developed over my academic career in collaboration with a number of colleagues but especially Hugh Lauder. I’d also like to thank Sahara Sadik, Ewart Keep, David James, Manuel Souto-Otero, Hanne Shapiro, Daniel James, Richard Watermeyer and other members of the Digital Futures of Work Research Programme (www.digitalfuturesofwork.com). The support received from the Institute of Adult Learning, Singapore University of Social Sciences, SkillsFuture Singapore, and School of Social Sciences, Cardiff University, are also greatly appreciated.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 The distinction between ‘labour scarcity’ and ‘job scarcity’ theories of education and work draws on Phillip Brown, Hugh Lauder and Sin Yi Cheung (2020) The Death of Human Capital? Its Failed Promise And How To Renew It In An Age Of Disruption, New York: Oxford University Press. This book outlines a new human capital and offers a detailed account of the historical foundations, features, and failings, of orthodox human capital theory.

2 The ideas presented in this article also draw on hundreds of interviews with corporate senior managers and executives, along with policy-makers in countries including China, Germany, Finland, India, Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, United Kingdom and United States, over a twenty-five year period of almost continuous funded research. The most recent is the Digital Futures of Work International Research Programme. https://digitalfuturesofwork.com/.

3 https://aws.amazon.com/devops/what-is-devops/.

4 Robin Wigglesworth and Eric Platt (2020) ‘S&P Global’s $44bn deal shows data is the oil of the 21st century’, Financial Times, 1^st December. https://www.ft.com/content/cd99579c-e01f-a71-a124-e9c03598e5b9 [Accessed: 6 January 2021]. Emphasis added.

5 Sam Altman, Tweet Post, 10.10pm 15^th February 2023.

6 This interview was conducted in London in 2011 as part of ongoing research following the publication of Brown, Lauder and Ashton 2011.

7 https://www.uflexreward.com/ [accessed 6 June, 2020].

8 This is a major theme of the Digital Futures of Work International Research Programme. See https://digitalfuturesofwork.com/.