The Russia-Ukraine frozen conflict: Evidence from an expert survey

Abstract

Many ask whether the war between Ukraine and Russia will turn into a frozen conflict, but the frozen conflict has existed since 2014. To improve the understanding of this conflict, we combined existing frozen conflict research with an original expert survey. Our main findings are that the conflict is driven by both the political issue of Ukraine’s alignment with the West and the territorial status of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk; that achieving stable peace hinges on an improbable scale of Ukrainian military victory; and that the alternative Western policies were unlikely to deter the invasion, raising concerns for the future resolution of conflict.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank all our respondents for their help with the survey, Eliska Pohnerova and Barbora Novotna for their assistance with the survey administration, and the participants of the PRCP research seminar for their valuable comments on our early draft.

Disclosure statement

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Notes

1 Adam Garfinkle, “Foreign Policy Immaculately Conceived.” Policy Review, no. 120 (2003): 61.

2 Magdalena Dembinska and Aurélie Campana, “Frozen Conflicts and Internal Dynamics of De Facto States: Perspectives and Directions for Research.” International Studies Review, 2017, 1–25; Kamil Christoph Klosek, Vojtěch Bahenský, Michal Smetana, and Jan Ludvík, “Frozen Conflicts in World Politics: A New Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 58, no. 4 (July 29, 2021): 849–58. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343320929726; Michal Smetana and Jan Ludvík, “Between War and Peace: A Dynamic Reconceptualization of ‘Frozen Conflicts.’” Asia Europe Journal 17, no. 1 (March 1, 2019): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-018-0521-x.

3 Michal Onderco and Madeline Zutt. “Emerging Technology and Nuclear Security: What Does the Wisdom of the Crowd Tell Us?” Contemporary Security Policy 42, no. 3 (2021): 286–311. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1928963, 8.

4 Irene Entringer García Blanes, Ryan Powers, Susan Peterson, and Michael J. Tierney, “Poll: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?” Foreign Policy, January 31, 2022.

5 Volodymyr Zelensky, “Speech by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Opening of the Second Crimea Platform Summit.” Official website of the President of Ukraine, August 23, 2022.

6 James J. Coyle, Russia’s Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts. Springer, 2017. Anna Fournier, “From Frozen Conflict to Mobile Boundary: Youth Perceptions of Territoriality in War-Time Ukraine.” East European Politics and Societies 32, no. 01 (2018): 23–55. Erik J. Grossman “Russia’s Frozen Conflicts and the Donbas.” The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters 48, no. 2 (2018): 7; Klosek, Bahenský, Smetana, and Ludvík. “Frozen Conflicts in World Politics”.

7 Dov Lynch, “New Thinking about ‘Frozen’ Conflicts.” Helsinki Monitor 16, no. 3 (2005): 192–95; Filon Morar, “The Myth of ‘Frozen Conflict’: Transcending Illusive Dilemmas.” Concordiam: Journal of European Security and Defence Issues 1, no. 2 (2010): 10–17.

8 Smetana and Ludvík. “Between War and Peace” .

9 Virginie Grzelczyk, “Threading on Thin Ice? Conflict Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula.” Asia Europe Journal 17, no. 1 (March 8, 2019): 31–45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-018-0523-8, 33.

10 Smetana and Ludvík. “Between War and Peace”.

11 Timothy W. Crawford Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2003.

12 Pavlína Bláhová, “Nagorno-Karabakh: Obstacles to the Resolution of the Frozen Conflict.” Asia Europe Journal 17, no. 1 (2019): 69–85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-018-0527-4.

Magdalena Dembińska and Frédéric Mérand. “The Role of International Brokers in Frozen Conflicts: The Case of Transnistria.” Asia Europe Journal 17, no. 1 (2019): 15–30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-018-0522-9.

13 Klosek, Bahenský, Smetana, and Ludvík. “Frozen Conflicts in World Politics”.

14 Paul C. Bauer, Alejandro Ecker, Michael Imre, Camille Landesvatter, and Sonja Malich, “Who Tweets, and How Freely? Evidence from an Elite Survey among German Politicians.” Research & Politics 10, no. 1 (January 1, 2023): 20531680221144236. https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221144237; Onderco and Zutt, “Emerging Technology and Nuclear Security”.

15 Eoin O’Malley, “The Power of Prime Ministers: Results of an Expert Survey.” International Political Science Review 28, no. 1 (January 29, 2007): 7–27. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512107070398; Ray, Leonard. “Measuring Party Orientations towards European Integration: Results from an Expert Survey.” European Journal of Political Research 36, no. 2 (1999): 283–306. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007009106184.

16 More detailed information about our sample, including more descriptive statistics, is available in the supplementary materials.

17 While we examined Russia’s intent behind altering the status quo, we didn’t probe all factors influencing their pre-invasion cost-benefit analysis. Importantly, though we touch on Russia’s cost perceptions, especially regarding Western deterrence failures, Ukraine’s deterrence, and Russia’s possible misjudgments remain unexplored. It’s doubtful Russia would’ve invaded, had Moscow truly understood the situation on the ground. We would like to thank the reviewer for pointing this out.

18 Hylke Dijkstra, Myriam Dunn Cavelty, Nicole Jenne, and Yf Reykers, “War in Ukraine.” Contemporary Security Policy 43, no. 3 (July 3, 2022): 464–65. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2022.2099085. Ivan Gomza, “Putin’s Inevitable Invasion.” Journal of Democracy 33, no. 3 (July 2022): 22–30. Götz, Elias, and Jørgen Staun. “Why Russia Attacked Ukraine: Strategic Culture and Radicalized Narratives.” Contemporary Security Policy 43, no. 3 (July 3, 2022): 482–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2022.2082633.

19 John Mearsheimer, “The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis.” The National Interest 23 (2022).

20 Kenneth E. Boulding, “Stable Peace among Nations: A Learning Process.” In Peace Culture And Society: Transnational Research And Dialogue, edited by Elise Boulding, Clovis Brigagao, and Kevin Clements, 108–14. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991.

21 Samuel Charap, “An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine.” Foreign Affairs, June 5, 2023. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/unwinnable-war-washington-endgame; Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, “Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive The West Needs to Prepare the Country’s Military for a Long War.” Foreign Affairs, May 10, 2023. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-beyond-ukraines-offensive.

22 Heidi Maurer, Richard G Whitman, and Nicholas Wright “The EU and the Invasion of Ukraine: A Collective Responsibility to Act?” International Affairs 99, no. 1 (January 9, 2023): 219–38. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac262.

23 Tinatin Khidasheli, “Western weakness has emboldened Putin and invited Russian aggression.” Atlantic Council, January 14, 2022. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/western-weakness-has-emboldened-putin-and-enabled-russian-aggression/.

24 Vojtěch Bahenský, “Can ‘Realists’ and ‘Hawks’ Agree? Half-Measures and Compromises on the Road to Invasion of Ukraine.” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 16, no. 3 (September 30, 2022): 56–74. https://doi.org/10.51870/TSVT5559.

25 Jan Osička and Filip Černoch, “European Energy Politics after Ukraine: The Road Ahead.” Energy Research & Social Science 91 (September 2022): 102757. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102757.

26 SIPRI. “World Military Expenditure Reaches New Record High as European Spending Surges,” April 24, 2023. https://www.sipri.org/news/2023/world-military-expenditure-reaches-new-record-high-european-spending-surges-0.

27 Caileigh Glenn, “Lessons in Sanctions-Proofing from Russia.” The Washington Quarterly 46, no. 1 (January 2, 2023): 105–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2023.2188829., 112–13.

28 This timeframe was selected and explicitly stated in the question posed to the polled experts to reflect the timing of the start of second and final buildup of the Russian forces in October 2021.

Additional information

Funding

We acknowledge funding by project UNCE/HUM/028 (Peace Research Center Prague) at Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences.

Notes on contributors

Jan Ludvik

Jan Ludvik ([email protected]) is an assistant professor at the Department of Security Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague. His research focuses on the intersection of military affairs and international politics, including nuclear and conventional deterrence, proliferation, and frozen conflicts.

Vojtech Bahensky

Vojtech Bahensky ([email protected]) is a researcher at the Department of Security Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague. His research focuses on military power, military power projection, and hybrid warfare.