Preparing for a two-front conflict: The role of the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force

Abstract

This article argues that while India is preparing for the contingency of a two-front war against China and Pakistan, its procurement and arms production policies make it problematic for the Indian Air Force (IAF) and Indian Navy (IN) to meet these challenges. IAF doctrine is not aligned to its current capabilities and is, therefore, largely speculative. Further, due to budgetary shortfalls in its modernization efforts, the IAF will find it difficult to fulfill its stated doctrinal role against China or Pakistan. On the other hand, the Indian Navy’s doctrine is better aligned with its objectives and capabilities. The IN can carry out its doctrine of sea control against the Pakistani Navy, but will have to adopt a sea denial posture against China because of the rapid growth of the PLA Navy’s force and capabilities. Given their slow pace of modernization, neither service will be able to decisively counter the Chinese military.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 Manoj Joshi, “Is the India-China conflict intractable?” Commentaries, Observer Research Foundation New Delhi, November 15, 2021. And, Aditya Sharma, What is next in the China-India border conflict? Deutche Welle, January 28, 2022.l.

2 For the best discussion of the early assumptions of Indian foreign policy see Sisir Gupta, India and Regional Integration of Asia, (Bombay: Asia Publishing House, 1964), pp. 1–27.

3 Anil Ahuja and Arun Sahgal, Indian Defence Budget: Beyond the Numbers, Delhi Policy Group Brief, February 10, 2021.

4 Vivek Raghuvanshi, India to boost defense spending by 13%, with billions for new weapons, Defense News, February 2, 2023.

5 Donald Trump Offers To Mediate Border Dispute Between India And China, Outlook (India), May 27, 2020.

6 Amit Gupta, India’s Third Tier Nuclear State Dilemma: N plus 20?, Asian Survey, Vol. 46, No. 1, 2001, pp. 1053–1055.

7 Rajeev Bhattacharya, How China’s ‘Aid’ To Rebel Groups Sustained Northeast Insurgency, The Quint, July 1, 2020.

8 For a discussion see Amit Gupta, The Versatility of Drones (Sorry UAVs), Geopolitics India, August 2021, pp. 10-15 and Amit Gupta, Building up the Indian Air Force: Can the US Help?, in Dinshaw Mistry and Sumit Ganguly (Eds.), Enduring and Emerging Issues in South Asian Security, (Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2022), pp. 133–147.

9 Ukraine war: Govt says 11 civilian, 4 IAF flights to bring back Indians tomorrow, Business Today, March 4, 2022.

10 Doctrine of the Indian Air Force, IAP 2000-2022, p. 3.

11 The United States Air Force, for instance was not in favor of building up a drone force and, instead, wanted to purchase more F-22 Raptors and F-35 Lightnings. The USAF also argued that people joined the air force to fly planes and drones had no pilot. For a discussion of USAF resistance to drones see, Robert M. Gates, Duty: Memoir of a Secretary at War, (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2014), p. 128. The USAF also goes through a tortuous exercise on what to call unmanned vehicles because drone is not considered a sexy enough name. The CIA, on the other hand, bought off-the-shelf drones and used them successfully to carry out surveillance and the targeting of terrorists in Iraq, Afghanistan, and along the Af-Pak border, see Amit Gupta, The Versatility of Drones (Sorry UAVs), Geopolitics India, August 2021, pp. 10–15.

12 Doctrine of the Indian Air Force, IAP 2000-2022, pp. 46–50.

13 For a discussion of the lengthy delays in arms acquisition and the pathologies of the Indian weapons production process see, Amit Gupta, “Techno-nationalism vs. techno globalization: India’s military acquisitions and arms production dilemma,” Comparative Strategy, Vol. 41, No. 2, 2022, pp. 212–228.

14 Operation cover-up by Modi govt in Rafale deal once again exposed: Cong, The Economic Times, November 9, 2021.

15 Rajat Pandit, India can scale up production of Tejas fighters for operational needs and exports, The Times of India, September 26, 2022.

16 Ujjwal Shrotryia, LCA Tejas Mk-1A Production Set to Increase From 16 To 24 Every Year, As HAL Unveils New Assembly Line, Swarajya, April 7, 2023.

17 Manish Kumar Jha, “Why delay fighter jets for IAF, says the Parliamentary Committee on Defence,” Financial Express, March 22, 2023.

18 Xiaoming Zhang, “China: The Quest for a Modern Air Force,” in Amit Gupta, (Ed.), Air Forces: The Next Generation, (Havant, Hants: Howgate Publishers, 2020), pp. 40–48.su.

19 US Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2022, p. 80.

20 Marcus Hellyer, Nathan Ruser and Aakriti Bachhawat India’s strike on Balakot: a very precise miss?, The Strategist, Australian Security Policy Institute, March 27, 2019.

21 Pentagon provided real-time intelligence to Indian Army on India-China 2022 border clash, White House says “Can’t confirm that” The Economic Times, March 21, 2023.

22 Amit Gupta, Building an Arsenal: The Evolution of Regional Power Force Structures, (Westport CT and London: Praeger, 1997), p. 44.

23 Germany’s Scholz arrives in India to ‘deepen’ ties, DW.com, February 25, 2023.

24 Rahul Bedi, India Quietly Launches Third Arihant-Class Nuclear-Powered Submarine: Report, The Wire, December 30, 2021.

25 Ajeyo Basu, “Not 6, now India to buy only 3 nuclear submarines as cost escalates,” Firstpost, March 17, 2023.

26 For a discussion of the capabilities and limitations of India’s nuclear force and the constraints on the development of the naval missile force see, Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda, “Indian nuclear weapons,” 2022, Bulletin Of the Atomic Scientists, VOL. 78, NO. 4, 224–236.

27 Abhijit Singh, “The Indian Navy’s aircraft carrier dilemma,” The Interpreter, March 13, 2023.

28 Indian Air Force Not Opposed To Theaterisation, Wants To Ensure Its Doctrine Isn’t Compromised: IAF Chief, Outlook India, October 4. 2022.

29 Prakhar Gupta, “Explained: Why A P-8I Aircraft of The Indian Navy Was Seen Flying Towards Ladakh Amid India-China Standoff,” Swarajya, June 18, 2020.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Amit Gupta

Amit Gupta ([email protected]) is a Senior Advisor to the Forum of Federations, Ottawa, Canada. He has previously taught at Illinois Wesleyan University, University of Illinois, and Stonehill College. He is the author, coauthor or editor of the following books, Building an Arsenal: The Evolution of Regional Power Force Structures (Praeger), India’s Nuclear Security (Lynne Rienner), The Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific: Maritime Challenges, Opportunities, and Policies (Routledge-forthcoming), Global Security Watch—India (Praeger), Strategic Stability in Asia, (Ashgate), and Air Forces: Next Generation (Ashgate). His writings have also appeared in journals such as Orbis, Asian Survey, The Round Table, and Security Dialogue.