Comparative Assessment of Wind Speed Predictive Capability of First-and Second-order Markov Chain at Different Time Horizons for Wind Power Application

ABSTRACT

In this article, comparison between the first-and the second-order Markov chain in the prediction of wind speed of different time horizons (i.e., very-short-term, short-term, medium-term and long-term) are performed using the wind speed data of Alexander Bay, South Africa. The prediction capability of the first-and second-order Markov chains are tested by comparing the predicted values to the measured value using standard statistical tests. Furthermore, the values of the predicted wind speeds are used to forecast wind power for each of the time horizons using ENERCON-E53 wind turbine power curve. Some of the key results reveal that both first-and second-order Markov chains present good forecast of wind speeds on very-short-time horizon and as prediction times increase, they lose their precision. Hence, they work best with very short prediction time. The result also shows that second-order Markov chains, which are based on the second-order transition matrices, have better performance compared to first-order Markov chains.

Keywords::

• Wind speed
• wind power
• prediction
• Markov chains
• time horizons

Additional information

Notes on contributors

T.R. Ayodele

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Temitope Raphael Ayodele, Ph.D., is currently with the Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria South Africa as research fellow. He is also a senior lecturer and researcher at the University of Ibadan, Nigeria. His research interests are energy (renewable energies), energy conversion and energy management. He received a Bachelor of Engineering in electrical engineering from the Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) and a Master of Engineering in electrical power and machine engineering from the University of Benin, both in Nigeria. He received his doctoral degree (Doctor Technologiae) from the Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa. He is a member of Nigerian Society of Engineer (NSE) and Council for the Regulation of Engineering in Nigeria (COREN). He may be contacted via email at [email protected].

A.S.O Ogunjuyigbe

Ayodeji Samson Olatunji Ogunjuyigbe, Ph.D. is currently a senior lecturer at the Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering and research lead of the Power Energy Machines and Drives (PEMD) Research Group at the University of Ibadan. His research focus is in the core area of power analysis, energy resources, energy conversion and energy management. Dr. Ogunjuyigbe has over 25 years research experience at various universities and 5 years industry consulting positions. Dr. Ogunjuyigbe obtained his Bachelor of Engineering degree in Electrical and Electronic Engineering from Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma, and his Master of Science degree in electrical machine (in the area of power and machines) from the University of Lagos, both in Nigeria. He completed his doctorate degree (Doctor Technologiae) from the Tshwane University of Technology, South Africa. He has authored/co-authored over 65 refereed journal/conference papers/scientific articles. He may be contacted at [email protected] and [email protected].

R.O Olarewaju

Richard O. Olarewaju is a team member of the of the Power Energy Machines and Drives (PEMD) Research Group in the Electrical and Electronic Engineering Department at the University of Ibadan. His research interests are in renewable energy resources assessment and standalone power solutions. He received a Bachelor of Science in electrical and electronic engineering from Ladoke Akintola University, located in Ogbomoso, Nigeria, and a Master of Science in electrical and electronics engineering from the University of Ibadan, located in Nigeria.

J.L. Munda

Josiah Lange Munda, Ph.D., is currently a full Professor at the Tshwane University of Technology, South Africa. He received a Master of Science in electrical distribution from Moscow Power Institute and Tver State Technical University, and a Doctor of Engineering in electrical engineering from the University of the Ryukyus. His research areas include power system stability, renewable energy supplies, hybrid power systems and intelligent control. He is a member of IEEE and SAIEE.