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ABSTRACT
This study evaluates the economic impact of severe natural disasters in Africa using the generalised synthetic control method. In other words, it assesses how gross domestic product (GDP) would have been affected, had severe natural disasters not occurred. Moreover, it explores the determinants of the destructiveness of the impact of natural disasters, focusing on the role played by capital. We find that severe natural disasters induce a significant and continuous reduction of GDP many years after the event. Indeed, economic losses caused by disasters depend on the level of capital (human capital, employment and capital stock) and aspects of governance quality (political stability and absence of violence). In other words, negative synergies are apparent because while capital stock, employment and human capital unconditionally reduce the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters, the corresponding conditional or interactive effects with political stability are also negative. Policy implications are discussed.
KEYWORDS:
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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Samba Diop
Samba Diop holds a PhD from Gaston Berger University (Senegal). Currently, he is an Associate Professor in Economics at Alioune Diop University (Senegal). His research focuses on Applied Econometrics, African Integration and Macroeconomics. He is currently working on themes such as Resource Rents and Economic Growth, Governance and Infrastructure, the creation of an African Monetary Integration Index and Covid-19 Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indexes. Dr Diop has presented several research papers at international conferences. His scholarly works have been published in the Journal of African Economies, the Journal of African Development, and the Journal of Public Affairs, among others.
Simplice A. Asongu
Simplice A. Asongu holds a PhD from Oxford Brookes University and is currently the Lead Economist and Director of the African Governance and Development Institute (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Distinguished Visiting Professor at the University of Johannesburg (Johannesburg, South Africa) and the Lead Economist and Director of the European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (Liège, Belgium). He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Africa Growth Institute (Cape Town, South Africa); PhD Supervisor at Covenant University (Ota, Nigeria) and the University of Ghana (Accra, Ghana); DBA Supervisor at the Management College of Southern Africa (Durban, South Africa) and Research Associate at the University of South Africa (Pretoria, South Africa) and Oxford Brookes University (Oxford, UK).
Vanessa S. Tchamyou
Vanessa S. Tchamyou holds a PhD in Applied Economics. She is the CEO at ASPROWORDA, Cameroon and the co-chair of EXCAS, Belgium. With many years of experience in research, training, mentoring and project management, her work led to publications of several articles in international journals. She is currently ranked by IDEAS/RePEc as the world's second-best economist by Cohort (year, 2019). She frequently serves as an expert/evaluator and referee.