Over the past decade, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), under the leadership of Fatih Birol, has become an important geopolitical actor in promoting the energy transition.Footnote1 ‘In the nearly nine years since he took over, Birol has led the agency’s efforts to publish a flurry of reports and analyses that show policymakers where countries are on their decarbonisation journeys and how they can accelerate’, according to recent reporting in Time magazine.Footnote2
However, a statement Birol made earlier this year left some energy watchers wondering if he may be too optimistic about the trajectory of the transition, particularly if the presumptive Republican nominee for US president Donald Trump wins election in November 2024.Footnote3 When queried about what a second Trump presidency might mean, he said, ‘I don’t expect the political changes of a president or a minister or anything else will be able to stop the clean energy transition. The economic and technological dynamics are very strong’, adding, ‘I believe the clean energy transition will continue to move fast, whoever the next president or the minister [of] this or that country will be’.Footnote4
This editorial will explore where the US is today as the Biden administration heads towards the end of its first term and consider what a second Trump presidency might mean.
2024: a key election year for global green energy policies
While the US presidential election is only one of the 2024 elections involving the world’s five largest carbon emitters – European Union (parliamentary elections), India, Indonesia, Russia, and the USFootnote5 – it may have the greatest consequence in terms of the course of the energy transition and the related impact of greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, the US contributes 13.6 per cent of global carbon emissions while India represents 7.6 per cent, the EU 7.4 per cent, Russia 4.5 per cent, and Indonesia 2.0 per cent.Footnote6
Biden presidency: 2021–2024
The presidency of Joe Biden has represented a high-water mark for US progress on addressing climate change and promoting the energy transition. The progress has taken the form of several key domestic legislative measures and regulatory actions as well as re-establishing the international community’s trust in American involvement on these challenges.
On the legislative front, in August 2022 Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act, which ‘is likely to lock in nearly US $1trillion in investment through 3032’ including tax credits and direct spending for solar and wind power projects.Footnote7
On the regulatory front, in March 2024 the administration announced the adoption of a regulationFootnote8 that ‘boosts the Biden administration’s broader goals of clamping down on greenhouse gas emissions from tailpipes while driving the transition toward electric vehicles’.Footnote9 Forbes Magazine described the regulation as the ‘single most important climate regulation in the history of the country’.Footnote10 The New York Times characterised the measure as ‘one of the most significant climate regulations in the nation’s history, a rule designed to ensure that the majority of new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the United States are all-electric or hybrids by 2032’.Footnote11 The regulation will reduce US transport-related carbon emissions by more than 7 billion tons, the the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated.Footnote12 However, no sooner was the regulation announced than West Virginia Republican US Senator Shelley Moore Capito said, ‘With the final electric vehicle rules announced today, the Biden administration is deciding for Americans which kinds of cars they are allowed to buy, rent, and drive … These regulations represent yet another step toward an unrealistic transition to electric vehicles that Americans do not want and cannot afford’.Footnote13
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has worked assiduously to repair the distrust among many in the international community in response to the actions (or inaction) of the previous Trump administration. These efforts included the US rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, supporting the historic milestone agreed at Conference of the Parties (COP28) to transition away from fossil fuels, being a founding member of the Minerals Security Partnership,Footnote14 and being willing to work with allies, particularly the European Union, to coordinate energy security and climate initiatives.Footnote15 With respect to the latter, Wally Adeyemo, US Treasury deputy secretary, said in October 2023, ‘Even as we spur American production, we recognize the need to build a resilient supply chain that includes our allies’.Footnote16
The US political landscape during the first three years of the Biden administration has been divided, to be sure. However, despite the predictable Republican party naysayers, the widely held observation is that the US ‘has accomplished more on climate change under the Biden administration than during any other presidential administration’.Footnote17
Trump presidency 2.0: 2025–2029
Trump has a well-established reputationFootnote18 for disputing the existence of climate change, much less accepting that an energy transition needs to take place. As recently as December 2023, Trump said, ‘the only global warming we should be worrying about … is nuclear warming’, referring apparently to a renewed nuclear arms race.Footnote19
In looking ahead, several themes are likely to dominate a second Trump presidential term. The following identifies just a few of his musings – if one assumes that he seriously adheres to what he says – depending on one’s perspective:
Trump has proposed eliminating the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits related to clean energy;Footnote20
A subject of particular annoyance to Trump relates to electric vehicles, a topic about which he often now invokes angry rhetoric. In late 2023 Trump railed against electric vehicle-related incentives, saying, ‘You can be loyal to American labor, or you can be loyal to the environmental lunatics’;Footnote21
In January, during a US Fox TV news programme, Trump said the ‘new scam business’ involves clean energy, and that the US is ‘going to drill, baby, drill’ if he is elected again.Footnote22
An additional indication of where a future Trump presidency might head in terms of climate and the energy transition can be found in the efforts of a collection of US conservative advocacy groups called Project 2025Footnote23 which published in mid-2023 a report titled ‘Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise’.Footnote24 In a news report, US publication ClimateWire described the report as ‘a plan for demolishing the federal government’s efforts to counter climate change’.Footnote25 According to Project 2025, the report will provide the ‘governing agenda’ for the next conservative presidential administration.
While Trump played no direct role in preparing the plan, many former Trump officials were co-authors, and the word ‘Trump’ appeared more than 300 times. Among the goals identified in the report:
US withdrawal from not only the Paris Climate Accords, but the underlying United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change,Footnote26 the latter of which had been ushered into US law in 1992 by former President George HW Bush, a Republican from an earlier era;
‘Stop the war on oil and natural gas’,Footnote27 a favourite Trump trope;
End government ‘interference in energy decisions’, thus promoting energy innovation by the private sector.Footnote28
According to Andrew Rosenberg, Carsey Senior Fellow at the University of New Hampshire Carsey School of Public Policy, the objective of Project 2025 is to shift federal agencies protecting the environment and public health to assisting the industries the agencies are charged with overseeing.Footnote29
However, Trump may struggle to override the IRA’s clean energy investment provisions because they are now US law. Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, DC, has pointed out that Congress will need to pass new legislation that scuttles the existing law.Footnote30 In order for a new law to accomplish that, in the November 2024 elections the Republican Party will need to take control of the US Senate, maintain control in the US House, and win the presidency.Footnote31 Moreover, states where Republicans have a stronghold – that is, the ‘red’ states – have been the ‘winners’ of much of the IRA’s clean energy investments.Footnote32 Will representatives and governors from those states support measures to reduce the investments? That seems very unlikely.
In summary, a recent headline in Barron’s, a US-based financial publication, pretty much captured the essence of Trump’s efforts: ‘Trump Is Taking Aim at Biden’s Climate Law’.Footnote33
Conclusion
While climate change may be an energising issue in many political races, that is not the case in the US where less than four per cent of those recently polled said it was the country’s most important problem.Footnote34 On the other hand, new research published by the University of Colorado’s Center for Social and Environmental Futures concluded that opinions related to climate change may have played a favourable role in President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory and may provide Biden a more robust electoral benefit in 2024.Footnote35
If Biden wins re-election, the US will continue to prioritise addressing climate change and promoting the energy transition. Another term in office would allow Biden to potentially achieve his pledge to reduce US emissions by half by 2030 based on 2005 levels and set the path towards net zero by 2050.
In contrast, a Trump victory is likely to mean the potential demise of climate change-related policies. During his 2017–2021 term in office, Trump actively worked against policies related to addressing the issue. He also seemed to take delight in rolling back many environmental measures.Footnote36
Perhaps the biggest change may be in how the international community perceives US interest on these issues. Will there be continued trust in the US, the likely outcome if Biden wins? Or will the distrust and global cynicism aimed at the US return with a Trump victory?
But one thing seems certain: Elements of the ‘culture wars’ that afflict the US like a ruthless disease are sadly the foundation for how campaigns are now contested. One of the key elements of the culture wars is now climate.
Fatih Birol of the IEA may be correct that a 2025–2029 Trump presidency will not stop the energy transition, but that will not be because Trump and his team did not try to do so. The obvious detrimental impact of such policies on all Americans, to say nothing of Trump’s supporters, seems of little concern to him. Put simply, Joseph Goffman, Principal Deputy Assistant Administrator at the US EPA, says Trump is ‘a climate nihilist’.Footnote37
Administrative items
Kaisa Huhta, the journal’s new associate editor
Beginning 1 January 2024, the Journal welcomed Associate Professor Kaisa Huhta of the University of Eastern Finland Law School and the Centre for Climate Change, Energy and Environmental Law at the university. Dr Huhta also holds a part-time professorship at the European University Institute’s Florence School of Regulation. She has authored a multitude of publications on the role of law in governing the energy sector and the low-carbon energy transition, most particularly in the European Union. She is also an expert member of the Finnish Market Court and actively carries out consultancy work in the field of energy law.
Dr Huhta shares my commitment to delivering a journal that is timely, thought provoking, and forward-looking. Her background, expertise, and overall experience will benefit every aspect of publishing the journal is involved in.
IBA climate registry
In mid-March 2024, the International Bar Association (IBA) launched the IBA Climate Registry,Footnote38 a web-based platform that encourages bar associations round the world to share concepts focusing on climate change and the energy transition. The key focus of the registry is to explore how lawyers are addressing the often-vexing issues associated with these matters. Those interested in learning more about this important initiative can access a recorded webinarFootnote39 in which participants set forth the reasons why the registry was developed and how it should assist all attorneys around the globe.
Notes
1 Justin Worland, ‘Inside Fatih Birol’s Push to Transform the IEA into a Clean Energy Authority’ Time (23 February 2024) <https://time.com/6768028/fatih-birol-transform-iea-clean-energy/> accessed 25 March 2024
2 Ibid
3 At the time of writing in early April 2024, Trump has won the Republican nomination for president and, in a repeat of the November 2020 election, leads the likely Democratic nominee incumbent Joe Biden in many early polls (eg Shane Goldmacher ‘Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds’ The New York Times (2 March 2024) <www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us/politics/biden-trump-times-siena-poll.html>
4 Hannah Northey, ‘Political Changes Can’t Derail Clean Energy Shift, IEA Head Says’ GreenWire (14 February 2024)
5 Smriti Mallapaty and others, ‘2024: A Climate Super-Election Year’ (5 March 2024) 627 Nature <www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00642-3>
6 Ibid
7 Ibid
8 ‘Final Rule: Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium Duty Vehicles, 20 March 2024’ <www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/final-rule-multi-pollutant-emissions-standards-model>; full text of rule <www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/lmdv-veh-standrds-ghg-emission-frm-2024-03.pdf>
9 Robin Bravender, Jean Chemnick, and Mike Lee, ‘Biden Hits Accelerator on Car Rules as Foes Plot Roadblocks’ GreenWire (20 March 2024)
10 ‘EPA Inks “Single Most Important Climate Regulation in the History of the Country”’ Forbes (20 March 2024) <https://fortune.com/2024/03/20/epa-climate-rule-biden-emisions-curb-limit-electric-vehicles/>
11 Coral Davenport, ‘Biden Administration Announces Rule Aimed at Expanding Electric Vehicles’ The New York Times (20 March 2024), updated 22 March 2024
12 EPA, ‘What They Are Saying’ (20 March 2024) <www.epa.gov/newsreleases/what-they-are-saying-strongest-ever-pollution-standards-cars-will-reduce-pollution#:~:text=Today's%20action%20will%20cut%20over,clean%20cars%20will%20save%20kids>
13 ‘Ranking Member Capito Statement on EPA’s Electric Vehicles Mandate’ (20 March 2024) <www.capito.senate.gov/news/press-releases/ranking-member-capito-statement-on-epas-electric-vehicles-mandate>
14 ‘Joint Statement of the Minerals Security Partnership’ <www.state.gov/joint-statement-of-the-minerals-security-partnership/>
15 Alan Rappeport, ‘US Looks to Allay European Fears of a Subsidy War’ The New York Times (31 October 2023) <www.nytimes.com/2023/10/31/us/politics/us-europe-subsidies.html>
16 Ibid
17 Trevor Higgins, Rachel Chang and Devon Lespier, ‘The Biden Administration Has Taken More Climate Action than any Other in History’ Center for American Progress (6 March 2024) <www.americanprogress.org/article/the-biden-administration-has-taken-more-climate-action-than-any-other-in-history/>
18 However, it is worth noting that in December 2009 Trump co-signed an ad in The New York Times that urged President Barack Obama to strengthen US measures aimed at addressing climate change. ‘An ad Trump Signed Supporting Action on Climate Change’ The New York Times (3 June 2017) <www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/03/us/politics/document-Nyt-Ad-Re-Climate-Change-Trump-Signer.html>
19 Emma Dumain and Timothy Cama, ‘Trump vs. an Emerging Republican Climate Strategy’ Politico (21 February 2024) <www.politico.com/news/2024/02/20/more-republicans-now-want-climate-action-but-trump-could-derail-everything-00142313>
20 Ibid
21 Ibid
22 Oliver Milman, ‘Climate Crisis Ignored by Republicans as Trump Vows to “Drill, Baby, Drill”’ The Guardian (18 January 2024) <www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/18/trump-republican-rivals-climate-crisis>
25 Scott Waldman, ‘Conservatives Have Already Written a Climate Plan for Trump’s Second Term’ ClimateWire (26 July 2023)
26 ‘Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise’ (July 2023), p 709 <https://thf-reports.s3.amazonaws.com/Proj2025/2025_MandateForLeadership_TEXT.pdf>
27 Ibid at 365
28 Ibid
29 Waldman (n 25)
30 Mallapaty and others (n 5)
31 Ibid
32 Matt Egan, ‘Red States Are Big Winners of Biden’s Landmark Laws’ CNN (14 February 2024) <www.cnn.com/2024/02/14/business/manufacturing-jobs-biden/index.html>
33 Avi Salzman, ‘Trump Is Taking Aim at Biden’s Climate Law. Which Stocks Could Dodge the Bullet’ Barron’s (1 April 2024) <www.barrons.com/articles/trump-climate-repeal-stocks-8507e68c>
34 Gallup, ‘Most Important Problem’ <https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx>
35 Matt Burgess, ‘Climate Change Matters to More and More People – and Could Be a Deciding Factor in the 2024 Election’ The Conversation (12 March 2024) <https://theconversation.com/climate-change-matters-to-more-and-more-people-and-could-be-a-deciding-factor-in-the-2024-election-222680>
36 Juliet Eilperin, Brady Dennis and John Muyskens, ‘Trump Rolled Back More than 125 Environmental Safeguards. Here’s How’ The Washington Post (30 October 2020)
37 Maroosha Muzaffar, ‘Trump Repeatedly Denies Climate Science and Says “We Shouldn’t Be Worried about Global Warming”’ The Independent (6 December 2023) <www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-climate-change-global-warming-b2459167.html>
38 See <www.ibanet.org/IBA-Climate-Registry>