Do Long Commutes Discourage Fertility Intentions Among Young Public Housing Renters in Guangzhou, China?

Abstract

There are longstanding international housing policy concerns about the well-being and satisfaction of public housing residents and other low-income households. However, little is known about whether the location of public housing requires such lengthy commutes that it retards their fertility intentions. As a result, this study aims to examine the relationship between long commutes and the fertility intentions of young public housing residents and the underlying mechanism linking them. Based on data from the 2022 Public Housing Survey in Guangzhou, China, the results show that long commutes can weaken the intention to have children among young public housing residents. However, this effect is only found to be significant for the self-employed, part-time workers, and those working in the private sector, not for those working in the public sector. Moreover, the effects turn out to be more pronounced for those who commute by private car and active transportation than those who take public transportation. Finally, this study reveals that residential satisfaction mediates the nexus between long commutes and fertility intentions. This study makes an important step in advancing the scholarly understanding of the differential fertility intentions as a result of the spatial mismatch.

Keywords:

• Fertility intentions
• long commutes
• transportation satisfaction
• residential satisfaction
• young public housing residents
• Guangzhou

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 In China, due to the limited supply of public housing, the allocation of public housing is determined by housing authority according to the availability of public housing rather than the actual housing needs of public housing residents.

2 Hukou is the Chinese household registration system, an important administrative tool for tracking the population. All Chinese citizens hold a hukou, and hukou status is inherited from either mother or father at birth (Zhu & Österle, 2017). In addition, hukou is recorded in specific cities and is tied to access to local public welfare and services, particularly affordable housing and public education (Du et al., 2024). For example, public rental housing in Guangzhou is generally prioritized for residents with Guangzhou hukou.

3 Internal migrants: Chinese people move from their home city to another to find a job, better education, or a better living environment, or to reunite with family.

Additional information

Funding

This study was sponsored by the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 19BGL220).

Notes on contributors

Haitao Du

Haitao Du received his Master’s degree in Urban Studies and Planning from the University of Sheffield. He is now a PhD student in the Department of Urban Studies at the University of Glasgow. His research focuses on housing-health and housing-fertility nexus in China.

Eddie Chi-man Hui

Eddie Chi-man Hui, PhD, is a Chair Professor in the Department of Public and International Affairs at the City University of Hong Kong. He obtained his Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge. His primary scientific interests are housing policy, economic growth, urbanization, and development economics.

Lin Chen

Lin Chen, PhD, is a Professor in the school of Management at Guangzhou University. She obtained her Ph.D. from Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Her research focuses on housing policy, real estate economics, and urban redevelopment.