Climate Change Adaptation in Non-Timber Forest Products: How Resilient are Small Shiitake Producers?

ABSTRACT

This study focused on shiitake mushrooms as non-timber forestry products adapting to climate change in an area to examine the practice of sustainable forest management. Our study is relevant to Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems because the research site is located in Kunisaki Peninsula in Japan, which is conventionally prone to drought. We examined how producers have been coping with climate change by adopting low- and middle-temperature varieties of shiitake, Lentinula edodes. This survey collected qualitative and quantitative data at the field level. Qualitative data were derived from interviews with shiitake producers, cooperative staff members, government officials, and a wholesaler followed by a quantitative survey. Moreover, a workshop was organized to verify the results of the interviews. The study results indicate that producers with a higher-than-average ratio of low-temperature shiitake production tend to sell through a brand for low-temperature shiitake varieties and acquire production knowledge from a parent. Annual sales and sloping terrain also affected the ratio. Furthermore, ongoing challenges presented by climate change can alter information and knowledge exchange, which thus increases interaction beyond family members.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• global warming
• adaptation
• non-timber forest products (NTFPs)
• globally important agricultural heritage systems (GIAHS)
• shiitake

Introduction

Climate change affects natural and anthropogenic processes, including material and water cycles, forest growth or forestry, and farming (Singh et al., 2017; Tei et al., 2017). Further, it affects livelihoods sustained by rural residents who are engaged in production activities, such as the production of non-timber forest products (NTFPs), which is related to sustainable forest management (SFM). These effects occur within feedback systems, especially where production is interconnected with natural local and global processes (Wheeler et al., 2021). Food producers worldwide increasingly perceive climate change, seeking effective measures for mitigation and adaptation (McMartin & Hernani Merino, 2014; Sarker et al., 2019). Nevertheless, standards and policies at the global and national levels, which are designed to mitigate climate change and guide adaptation, are insufficient (Matere et al., 2015; Sarker et al., 2019). Indeed, empirical studies on food production and consumption report that existing policies require significant improvement (Gil et al., 2019; Springmann et al., 2016). Thus, formulating satisfactory adaptation measures for food production, including NTFPs, requires additional studies on methods designed to further improve frameworks for traditional and commercially marginalized communities (Alonso & Liu, 2013; Lynn et al., 2013; Sowman, 2020). The development of crop varieties represents one major initiative promoted by the Japanese government in order to adapt to climate change (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), 2020b). Climate Change Adaptation Plans and relevant policies by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment (Ministry of the Environment, 2021) also reflect such trends. Moreover, modern agro-food systems prioritize the continued promotion of economically efficient production, which results in market competition that requires market instruments for survival and encourages contemporary ways of consumption (e.g., Guthman, 2011; Peine & McMichael, 2005). In light of these challenges, particularly in the local context, an urgent need emerges to understand the factors that underlie decisions to grow certain crops or crop varieties as adaptation measures to climate change, its induced disruptions to the local environment, and demographic changes, such as population decline. This further applies to the production of NTFPs contributing to SFM. For instance, environmentally and culturally embedded NTFP production potentially conserves forest while sustaining the livelihood of surrounding forest and agricultural communities (Kohsaka et al., 2021; Kohsaka & Miyake, 2021; Lovrić et al., 2020).

The production area on the Kunisaki Peninsula in Oita Prefecture is one of the largest for shiitake in Japan, where the research site is located and registered as a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS) site under the framework of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. The research site is referred to as the Kunisaki Peninsula Usa Integrated Forestry, Agriculture and Fisheries Systems, which is abbreviated as the Kunisaki GIAHS site (Figure 1; Kunisaki Peninsula Usa Area GIAHS (Kunisaki GIAHS), 2021). Kunisaki GIAHS is a traditional socio-ecological system that sustains the rich yet limited natural environment and the livelihood of the locals. The production systems, which primarily comprise cascade-watering systems connected to irrigation ponds, are built and maintained according to traditional knowledge that has been passed down through generations (FAO, n.d.a). Kunisaki GIAHS is characterized by interconnected forests and farming plots interspersed among these irrigation ponds. This structure enables the system to tolerate periodical droughts (Hayashi, 2014; Vafadari, 2013). Shiitake cultivation can offset low income from poor rice harvests due to periodical droughts and the hilly topography of the area. Shiitake cultivation is sustained via forests of sawtooth oaks (Quercus acutissima) by maintaining harvesting cycles and utilizing broadleaf forest resources for bed logs. Shiitake mushrooms cultivated at the Kunisaki GIAHS site traditionally sell for higher prices because they are more fragrant and of higher quality. They are a shiitake variety that sprouts at low temperatures or when stimulated by a drop in temperature. This variety is called teion-hinshu, meaning “low-temperature variety” in Japanese (interview with a shiitake wholesaler, August 1, 2020). The higher selling price and esteemed status of this shiitake variety are incentives for conserving its traditional growing practices at the Kunisaki GIAHS site. However, climate change places the production systems under pressure with a significant portion of producers adopting middle-temperature shiitake varieties. Thus, a detailed survey of shiitake producers in the Kunisaki GIAHS area enables examining the complex conditions of the decisions of producers on a daily basis in order to adapt to the changing natural and social scenarios of production due to climate change.

Figure 1. Kunisaki GIAHS site, Oita Prefecture, Japan.

Source: Hakuchizu Nurinuri. (2021). Retrieved November 29, 2021, from https://n.freemap.jp/.

Thus, this study is a detailed analysis of the climate change adaptation of shiitake producers in the environment of SFM in the Kunisaki GIAHS site. The detailed analysis of local data elicits certain complex environmental and socio-economic relationships of producers involved in climate change adaptation practices. Firstly, we categorized the 43 shiitake producers into two groups: producers with a higher ratio of low-temperature varieties and those with lower ratios. The former is characterized with a production ratio of 50% and above while the latter has below average production ratio. Next, we compared the two groups based on the following variables: (1) individual characteristics of producers, (2) production characteristics, (3) sales and branding, (4) perception of climate change and the use of adaptative measures, (5) and topography of producers’ agricultural communities. After observing general trends of the data through descriptive statistics, we conducted a correlation coefficient analysis to understand (1) the relationship of the variables used in the survey and (2) the topographic data with the ratio to produce low-temperature shiitake varieties. A discriminant analysis was also carried out to identify the characteristics of shiitake producers with or without focus on low-temperature varieties. We also utilized the Mann–Whitney U test to determine significant differences between the two groups. By conducting this study, we aim to provide insights on how producers of high-quality foods, including NTFPs, can adapt to climate change. For instance, we documented that the introduction of middle-temperature varieties is becoming a major adaptive measure to climate change in Kunisaki in recent years. This reduces the production of low-temperature varieties, which stabilizes the income from low-temperature shiitake among producers including small ones. The intensive adaptation efforts are necessary to prepare for adaptive production and the information should be calibrated based on individual or multiple types of production in the region.

Shiitake production in the Kunisaki GIAHS site is embedded in local socio-ecological systems. Thus, the results are expected to provide implications for rural development in terms of climate change, traditional production methods, and conservation practices. The study findings have implications for SFM with NTFP production adapting to climate change. This is aligned with the concern of IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services)-IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) co-sponsored workshop report on biodiversity and climate change and the demand of a rapid inter-sectorial policy implementation to solve the issues of climate change, biodiversity conservation, and the human society (Pörtner et al., 2021).

Applying studies of climate change adaptation to NTFP

Climate change affects the growth of trees, the availability of forest resources, and forest management practices (Tei et al., 2017). Stakeholders of the forest industry are concerned about climate change-induced environmental hazards such as rainstorms affecting forest health, composition, and productivity (Soucy et al., 2021). Thus, forest (e.g., terrestrial, mangrove) restorations and management include both mitigation and adaptation measures for climate change (Chow, 2018; Quevedo et al., 2020). There is also a growing trend on forest policies incorporating mitigation and adaptation measures, though it requires the pursuit of synergetic effects of integrating climate change measures in SFM (Yousefpour et al., 2020). Similarly, Few et al. (2017) cautioned that the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures in a synergetic way could negatively affect social resilience. The concerns of the synergetic effect with climate change adaptation exist in relation to the EU’s promotion of close-to-nature forestry. For instance, there is a concern about maintaining and leaving natural processes of the forest such as leaving deadwood as it is (Kohsaka & Flitner, 2004; Kohsaka & Handoh, 2006; Kovács et al., 2020). Climate change raises the question about naturalness of the practice and the use of adaptation measures.

The increasing concern of climate change demands further implementation of both mitigation and adaptation measures among food producers including edible NTFP producers. Agricultural producers, for example, in Australia, are likely to recognize the risk from climate change and take adaptative measures as the time passes (Wheeler et al., 2021). However, these measures become less effective with varying conditions and implementation. For instance, farmers in the Karakoram do not implement the measures as long-term and structural targets but rather as short-term solutions (Gioli et al., 2014). Thus, adaptation measures need to be carefully designed and implemented in a culturally and environmentally sensitive area such as the inclusion and participation of producers and residents in local discussions of climate change adaptation to respect and integrate the local tradition and practice (Lynn et al., 2013).

To implement climate change adaptation measures in the forest, ecological and cultural roles of NTFP production needs to be studied and integrated into planning. NTFP production has attracted the attention of scholars for its provision of ecosystem services including cultural ones (Kohsaka et al., 2021; Kohsaka & Miyake, 2021; Lovrić et al., 2020). Mushroom production has increased globally for decades due to their beneficial effects on people’s health (Royse et al., 2017). Because of this continuous consumer interest in NTFPs, research on climate change adaptation of NTFPs is relevant to understand, particularly in the forest sector. NTFP production is also studied in line with knowledge transmission (Kohsaka et al., 2017, 2015). The transmission of cultivation knowledge from parent to child (vertical transmission) has been common in traditional rural communities in East Asia, such as the case of honey and shiitake productions (Kohsaka et al., 2017, 2015). The availability of outreach services and communication among producers has also contributed to NTFP production and agroforestry practices. Examples of these practices include case studies from Indonesia (Facheux et al., 2007), Japan (Kohsaka et al., 2015), the Democratic Republic of Congo (Sabastian et al., 2019), and the Peruvian Amazon (Thomas et al., 2017). This study investigated the decision making of shiitake producers in adopting or resisting climate change adaptation and the potential impact on their SFM with the motivation to also clarify the contribution of knowledge transmission.

Shiitake production in the Kunisaki GIAHS area and shiitake variations

The Kunisaki GIAHS area is located on Kunisaki Peninsula in the eastern part of Oita Prefecture, which is situated in the northern part of Kyushu Island, Japan. Oita Prefecture is well known for dried shiitake cultivated on bed logs and occupies 52% of the market share of shiitake mushrooms in Japan. Since 2013, the Kunisaki GIAHS site has been known for producing higher-quality shiitake compared with other regions (MAFF, 2020a; Kunisaki GIAHS, 2021). Furthermore, the area comprises six municipalities – namely, Bungo Takada City, Usa City, Kitsuki City, Kunisaki City, Hiji Town, and Himeshima Village – and is known for receiving limited precipitation. The peninsula, which extends into the Seto Inland Sea, has a length and width of approximately 30 km. Valleys are spread radially over the peninsula from Mt. Futago, which has a height of 721 m. The Kunisaki GIAHS site is based on a traditional system that links forestry, farming, and fisheries (Kunisaki GIAHS, 2021). Forests of sawtooth oaks retain rainwater and transmit it to farmlands through a myriad of irrigation ponds. Such cascading hydrological systems mitigate drought risks in the surrounding land, which is characterized by porous volcanic soil and periodical low precipitation that occurs every 5 years (interview with a shiitake producer, September 5, 2020). This system, which can store underground water, constitutes an agricultural and forestry system that can mitigate the effects of drought in this hilly, drought-prone area (FAO, n.d.b). Thus, the Kunisaki GIAHS site can be considered a system that conserves scarce water resources and facilitates cultural, social, and natural processes, which harmonize multiple modes of rural production, including forestry, rice production, and shiitake cultivation. Dried grass tatami mats, which are known as shichitoui, are a product with a registered geographical indication. Among these unique natural resources, shiitake mushrooms serve multiple functions. As an NFTP, they are a source of income; as a mushroom, they benefit the ecology of broad-leaved forests.

In the 1950s, shiitake production on the Kunisaki Peninsula increased with the introduction of block spawn (tanekoma) cultivation (interview with a shiitake producer, February 9, 2021). The amount of dried shiitake produced in Oita Prefecture increased from 244 metric ton in 1950 to 1,387 metric ton in 1962 (MAFF, 1952; Oita Prefectural Government, 2017). Excluding Himeshima Village, the Kunisaki GIAHS site produced 228.3 metric ton of dried shiitake in 1962. However, production shifted to indoor production following the slow adoption of fungal bed (kinsho) shiitake cultivation in the 1980s (Matsuo, 2016). For the log cultivation of shiitake at the Kunisaki GIAHS site, sawtooth oak trees are harvested rotationally and utilized in a sustainable manner. Specifically, producers harvest oaks that are approximately 15 years old to promote a natural regeneration cycle through coppicing. From late fall to spring, producers harvest more logs and pound spawn blocks into them. They use a traditional method called fusekomi, where newly harvested logs are covered with the branches and leaves of felled trees in order to gradually dry the logs and allow the shiitake mycelia to spread throughout the logs (Figure 2a).

Figure 2. (a- d) Log-cultivated shiitake production in the Kunisaki GIAHS. (a) and (b) are taken by author in 2020. (a) and (b) are taken in Kunisaki City and in Bungo Takada City, respectively. (c) is based on Kunisaki GIAHS (Kunisaki GIAHS, 2021); Shiitake producer (interview, Sept 6, 2021). (d) is provided by courtesy of Toshifumi Tokumaru, 2021, Kunisaki City.

The fusekomi process spans approximately 20 months. Mushrooms are generally harvested during the second fall season after logs have been covered and injected with spawn blocks (Kunisaki GIAHS, 2021). At this point, logs are referred to as hodagi, which literally means “bed logs” in Japanese. Producers then move the bed logs to hodaba, the grounds on which bed logs are raised under coniferous trees. Shiitake is harvested from these logs for 3–5 years (interview with a shiitake producer, September 6, 2020; Figures 2b, c). Coniferous trees protect the mycelia in the bed logs from heat.

However, rising temperatures have affected shiitake producers in the Kunisaki GIAHS site in multiple ways. For example, the average temperature has increased for nearly all winter and summer months between 2010 and 2020 (Figure 3a).

Figure 3. (a-c) The data for (a) was from The Musashi Observatory located at 33°28′N131°44′E (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2021a). In (b-c), n indicates the sample size.

Between 2016 and 2020, the average temperature during the winter and summer months was the highest compared with those of the last 15 years (2006 to 2020) except for February. The average July temperature during 2016–2020 was the same as the average July temperature from 2011 to 2015. Both temperatures were higher than the average July temperature from 2006 to 2010. Moreover, the average December temperature from 2016 to 2020 was the same as that from 2006 to 2010, where both average temperatures were higher than the average December temperature during 2006–2010 (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2021b).

Shiitake is categorized using several criteria, such as appearance, variety, place of origin or production (at the national and local scales), and producer name. The forms of shiitake include donko, kohko, and kohshin, with the forms being differentiated as per the appearance of the shiitake caps. For example, the donko form has cracks on the surface called hana-donoko, with hana meaning “flower” in Japanese (Supplementary Table 1; Figure 2d; Oita Prefecture Shiitake Agricultural Cooperatives, n.d). Producers employ a combination of complex branding strategies to highlight the unique characteristics of each strain. Conventionally, shiitake cultivation excludes the use of pesticides or chemicals such that the majority of products may qualify for organic certification, such as the Japanese Agricultural Standards certification, for further sales and exporting.

Besides forms, three brands of shiitake are produced in the Kunisaki GIAHS site: the Kunisaki GIAHS Promotion Committee brand, Kaori Chan brand from the Kunisaki branch of the shiitake cooperative, and Umamidake brand by the Oita Prefectural Government (Table 1). Brands are determined according to form, cultivation location, variety, or a combination of these factors. Qualification for the Kunisaki GIAHS Promotion Committee brand is based on cultivation location and form. The criteria demand that all production processes from harvesting logs to drying be conducted within the geographical boundaries of the Kunisaki GIAHS site (Kunisaki GIAHS, n.d.). Other standards also govern the color and type of form.

Table 1. Brand standards of shiitake within the Kunisaki GIAHS site.

	Brand name
	Kaori Chan	GIAHS Regional Brand Certificate	Umamidake
Management	Shiitake cooperative	Kunisaki GIAHS	Oita Prefecture
Form standard	Unspecified	〇 Three specified forms	Unspecified
Varieties	〇 Low-temperature varieties	Unspecified	〇 Five low-temperature and two middle-temperature varieties
Place of production (geographical boundary)	〇 Producers are registered cooperative members operating within the business region of the Kunisaki branch of the shiitake cooperative (Bungo Takada City, Kitsuki City, Usa City, and Kunisaki City)	〇 Producers are registered with the Kunisaki GIAHS. Production amount is verified; the locations of forests for harvesting logs, fusekomi, and hodaba are checked.	Producers in Oita Prefecture registered with the prefecture
Quality according to standards set by the shiitake cooperative	Regular	Deluxe	Regular (all traders located in the prefecture can apply for certification)

Source: Shiitake cooperative staff (interview, April 21, 2021). Note. 〇 indicates distinctive factors that compare the three brands.

The Kaori Chan brand specializes in a limited variety of low-temperature shiitake cultivated within the geographical boundaries of the Kunisaki branch of the shiitake cooperative (Bungo Takada City, Kitsuki City, Usa City, and Kunisaki City). Consumers and wholesalers praise the taste and aroma of low-temperature shiitake from Kunisaki Peninsula (personal conversation with a shiitake wholesaler, August 1, 2020). Additionally, Kunisaki City supports low-temperature shiitake cultivation by subsidizing the cost of spawn blocks and paying producers 1 yen per block (Kunisaki City Government, 2019). Buying other varieties reduces support to 0.5 yen per block.

The third brand, Umamidake, covers shiitake produced from across the prefecture. Umamidake was registered as an official trademark by the Oita Prefectural Government in 2020 (Oita-ken San Hoshi Shiitake, 2021). This brand includes multiple shiitake varieties, including five low-temperature and two middle-temperature ones. The brand includes middle-temperature varieties, which are cultivated by producers transitioning from low- to middle-temperature varieties.

Methods

This study employed mixed research methods, which enhanced the validity of the study (Creswell & Creswell, 2017). Detailed information obtained from interviews informed the drafting of the questionnaire disseminated to shiitake producers. The analysis of the study integrated results obtained using both methodologies. The first part of the study utilized the qualitative method to obtain detailed information on shiitake production in the Kunisaki GIAHS site. At this stage, information was collected on the measures taken by producers in order to adapt to climate change. The second part of the study utilized the quantitative method and focused on an analysis of the questionnaire administered to shiitake producers. For the scale validation, all the authors designed and carefully cross-checked the questionnaire, which involved a survey of relevant studies, inputs from the initial interviews, and consultations with shiitake cooperative staff and producers. Questionnaire validation was done by conducting trial interviews with shiitake producers. The data were reviewed cautiously and necessary amendments were done accordingly prior to the dissemination of the questionnaire. The information gained from the interviews and the following workshop advanced the analyses by enabling a combination of multiple methodologies.

Interviews and workshop

For this study, a series of interviews was conducted from July 2020 to February 2021. The interviewees were 12 shiitake producers, 5 officials of local governments, 2 staff members of a shiitake cooperative, and a wholesaler. The interviews began by asking two shiitake producers open-ended questions about the historical development of shiitake cultivation and related forestry practice in the Kunisaki GIAHS site. The responses informed the development of the research questions regarding the effect of climate change on local shiitake production. Moreover, responses informed the design of the questionnaire, which included items on the manner in which shiitake producers have been responding to climate change (Table 2; questionnaire for a shiitake producer in Supplementary Table 2). This stage of the research also included meetings with four officials from the Oita Prefectural Government and an official from the City of Kunisaki in July 2020. The topics of the meeting included policies for promoting shiitake production in the city and the prefecture as well as the organizational structure of shiitake cooperatives from the prefectural to the community level. This information elucidated the organizational activities of shiitake producers in terms of quality control and sales. Next, an interview with a shiitake cooperative staff was conducted, covering the topics of shiitake production and sales in the Kunisaki GIAHS site.

Table 2. Adaptation strategies of shiitake producers in the Kunisaki GIAHS site.

Adaptation	Intended purpose
Adding branches and leaves on top of fusekomi	Lowering the temperature inside fusekomi
Shifting from low- to middle-temperature shiitake	Stabilizing production amid global warming-induced changes
Allowing some weeds to remain around fusekomi	Preventing reflected heat from affecting fusekomi
Adding back branches and leaves to the fusekomi swept away by typhoon	Maintaining fusekomi
Sprinkling water in winter	Providing moisture and stimulation for the sprouting and growth of shiitake
Moving bed logs or changing the location of hodaba	Moving bed logs to cooler hodaba and stimulating shiitake sprouting
Changing the location of fusekomi	Placing fusekomi in a cooler location

In September 2020, a total of 11 shiitake producers were interviewed, including the two previously interviewed producers. The interviews were used to test the initial drafts of the questionnaire as another measure of scale validation at the fundamental level. As they answered the questionnaire, the producers were asked to explain the rationale underlying their responses and to elaborate on relevant thoughts. The interviews lasted from 45 min to 60 min. Following these interviews, an interview with a shiitake cooperative staff member was conducted, which confirmed facts about the impact of climate change on shiitake production in the region. Additionally, an interview with a wholesaler was conducted in August 2020 to discuss the branding of shiitake in Kunisaki City.

After the interviews, the research team organized a workshop in October 2020 to discuss the production of shiitake, especially the low-temperature varieties. The total number of workshop participants reached 34, which included shiitake producers; a wholesaler; city and prefectural staff (including tourism department staff); and a representative from the Kunisaki Shichitoui Promotion Association. Most producers and the wholesaler who attended the workshop had been previously interviewed.

Questionnaire survey

The second part of the data collection phase comprised administering the questionnaire from September to November 2020. The questionnaire was designed to collect data on the individual characteristics of the producers, shiitake production and sales, knowledge transmission, and responses to climate change. The questionnaire also contained inquiries on observed species around the production sites to contribute to the study about the impact of afforestation on ecosystem and cultural services centering on shiitake production (Kohsaka et al., 2021). The questionnaire used in this study is provided as a supplementary material (see Supplementary Table 2 and the questionnaire in the section).

For the scale validation, the authors carefully cross-checked the draft of the questionnaire, which was designed based on relevant literatures and interview data to enhance the validity of the research on shiitake producers in the Kunisaki GIAHS. The authors also consulted cooperative staff and producers prior to the conduct of the study to check the validity of questions and choices.

The authors surveyed the existing studies interviewing farmers on the choices of climate change measures (eg, Esham & Garforth, 2013; Mertz et al., 2009; Shakoor et al., 2011); for example, the authors adopted the methods of Esham and Garforth (2013) in drafting the questions on farming situation, climate change adaptation measures, perception on climate change, and the difficulties in adaptation in Sri Lanka for quantitative analysis though the authors revised their questions and choices to reflect socio-economic conditions of Japanese shiitake producers. The questions pertaining to sales channels were based on Fujita and Hatano (2017), which studied farming and the economic situation of entering organic farmers in Japan. Kohsaka et al. (2015, 2017), and Uchiyama et al. (2017) provided concrete information about the types of knowledge transmission identified in the NTFP production. The choices about the number of bed logs were taken from the classes utilized in Statistical Survey on Special Forest Products (MAFF, 2020a).

The questions and choices derived from the literature were further tuned for the research in the Kunisaki GIAHS. For example, the questionnaire was drafted to ask about the (1) size of sawtooth forest for shiitake production, (2) types of local brands to sell shiitake, (3) concrete climate change adaptation measures found in the interviews, and (4) knowledge transmission reflecting the extension administrations and activities of shiitake cooperative. The questionnaire draft was checked by the staff of the shiitake cooperative and producer who was interviewed before. The interviews with 11 producers in September enabled further modification and a more understandable questionnaire.

For data collection, the study employed a nonrandom distribution of the questionnaire. The authors requested the shiitake cooperative to distribute the questionnaire between September and November 2020 and received 63 responses from the cooperative, including responses from the two previously interviewed producers. Thus, a total of 72 producers answered the questionnaire.

The study opted to only integrate the adoption of climate change measures in the question on the adoption of measures, which also provided choices on the attitudes of the producers, for analysis. The choices became considered to neither ranked nor continuous to be adopted for analysis. Additionally, although the survey was designed to target producers in Kunisaki City, the shiitake cooperative distributed surveys to producers in the GIAHS site within their business region, including Bungo Takada City, Kitsuki City, Usa City, and Kunisaki City. Among these cities, 307 members–producers belonged to the shiitake cooperative, specifically, 62 in Bungo Takada City, 14 in Kitsuki City, 60 in Usa City, and 171 in Kunisaki City (interview with shiitake cooperative staff, June 21, 2020). Seven responses were obtained from producers in Bungo Takada City; 4 from Kitsuki City; 11 from Usa City; and 43 from Kunisaki City. Seven respondents did not indicate to which agricultural community they belonged. However, this study may have undervalued data for testing a variable to producers in Kunisaki City because producers located outside Kunisaki City answered the questionnaire. The question on the transmission of knowledge between local producers was asked only as the choice of consultation with other producers in Kunisaki City because producers in other cities cannot choose producers in their own cities. For example, a producer in Bungo Takada City does not have the option to consult other producers in their own cities.

Topography

This study considered the following topographic variables: the average elevation and slope of each agricultural community and the distance of the communities from the coastline. The digital elevation model (DEM) used was a five-meter mesh DEM5A provided by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GIAJ) (2020). Data were based on an airborne laser survey, with a standard error of 30 cm (GIAJ, n.d.). The boundaries of agricultural communities were determined according to data from the 2015 Census of Agriculture and Forestry (MAFF, 2015). In all, 893 agricultural communities can be found within the Kunisaki GIAHS site: 200 in Bungo Takada City, 192 in Kitsuki City, 298 in Usa City, 134 in Kunisaki City, 69 in Hiji Town, and 8 in Himeshima Village. DEM was clipped to conform to the community boundaries indicated in the census.

Distance to the coastline was measured using the distance from the centroid of the agricultural community to the coastline (MAFF, 2015). Coastline data were obtained from GISJ (2020), while QGIS 3.8 was used to calculate spatial data.

Discriminant analysis

Discriminant analysis was used to characterize shiitake producers who produce low-temperature shiitake at higher percentages than the average. The analysis calculated coefficients on a linear discriminant and estimated the classification of samples. The evaluation of analysis is based on the percentage of correct classification of the real sample groups. The independent variables were selected by calculating the correlation coefficient of the ratio of low-temperature variety production to the variables of production and sales, knowledge transmission, climate change, and topography. Certain variables, such as the number of years a family has been producing shiitake, as well as adaptations apart from adopting middle-temperature varieties, were excluded from the analysis. The study proposes that the relationship between these factors was neither heard nor reasonably assumed. IBM SPSS Statistics 27 was used for discriminant analysis.

Mann–Whitney U test

Furthermore, the study employed the Mann–Whitney U test to analyze the differences between two groups of producers for certain variables. This nonparametric test was used because the samples of the groups were extremely small, which did not allow the assumption of normal distribution. The groups were divided based on the ratios in order to produce low-temperature varieties: the average and 50%. Only 11 producers achieved 50% or more of the total shiitake cultivation for low-temperature varieties. This analysis used IBM SPSS Statistics 27.

Results

Shiitake production and sales

This section presents descriptive statistics of the data on shiitake production and sales based on the survey responses followed by knowledge transmission and the climate change adaptation of the producers. Among the primary workers, 68 were male and 3 were female (out of 68 valid responses). Three respondents marked themselves as male and female, which may indicate that multiple family members considered themselves primary workers. The average age of the respondents was 69 years. One respondent was in their 40s; 6 were in their 50s; 27 were in their 60s; 30 were in their 70s; and six were in their 80s. The average years of individual experience was 26.1 (69 valid responses), while the average years of experience for a family was 40.5 years (70 valid responses). Moreover, 76% of the respondents reported that they worked part-time (70 valid responses).

Statistics on forest use, production, and sales indicate the size of individual shiitake production. By applying these three indicators, shiitake producers can be classified into three groups by production size. Each group constitutes approximately 25–40% of the total shiitake sales (Supplementary Figs. 1a–d). The sawtooth oak forests owned by producers were grouped into three classes: 1–4 ha, <1 ha, and 5–9 ha (corresponding to 43%, 16%, and 15% of producers, respectively; Supplementary Fig. 1a). The average size of a producer-owned sawtooth oak forest was 4.52 ha. Producers unable to sustain their operations using only sawtooth oak from their forests buy logs from other owners. The three largest groups of forest areas in which to buy forest stands are 0 ha, <1 ha, and 1–4 ha (54%, 24%, and 18%, respectively), with an average forest size of 1.26 ha. Nearly all producers obtain logs for shiitake production from forests within the GIAHS site. Only one producer admitted to using logs from other areas in Oita Prefecture apart from the GIAHS site.

The average area of hodaba was 1.8 ha (70 valid answers). Producers were classified into three classes depending on the number of bed logs used: 3,000–10,000, 600–3,000, and <600 (39%, 20%, and 18% of producers, respectively; Supplementary Fig. 1b).

The main NTFPs in the Kunisaki GIAHS site were dried shiitake. The shiitake cooperative focused on the production and sale of dried shiitake, which reached 749 kg per producer (70 valid responses). The three largest groups according to dried shiitake production were grouped into three categories, namely, those producing between 0 and 300 kg, between 300 and 600 kg, and between 1,000 to 3,000 kg (36%, 26%, and 24% of producers, respectively; Supplementary Fig. 1c). Among the 70 producers, 12 produced raw shiitake.

The annual sales of shiitake varied among producers. The two largest groups of producers by sales were those with 1–3 million yen and those with <1 million yen in sales (36% and 35% of producers, respectively; Supplementary Fig. 1d) followed by those selling 3–5 million yen and 5–10 million yen (13% each).

Seventy-one out of the 72 respondents identified the shiitake cooperative as their largest sales channel by volume. The question allowed multiple answers. This channel was followed by direct sales to consumers and direct in-store sales (14 and 11 producers respectively). Sales through wholesalers (excluding agricultural cooperatives) and Internet sales were rare (one producer for each sales channel). The Kaori Chan brand was the most utilized one for selling shiitake (21 of 72 valid responses; Table 1; Supplementary Fig. 2) followed by the Umamidake and GIAHS certificate brands (20 and 7, respectively). The majority of producers who sold through Kaori Chan also sold through Umamidake and vice versa.

Knowledge transmission

Knowledge on shiitake cultivation is mainly transmitted via family members, other shiitake producers, shiitake cooperatives, and governments (Supplementary Fig. 3). The three most prominent channels for knowledge sharing were parents, other producers in Kunisaki City, and the shiitake cooperative (69%, 38%, and 33%, respectively, with multiple answers possible). However, responses differed when the participants were asked about how they gain knowledge on production-related issues. The study found that dependence on parents decreased when seeking consultation on such problems. In such cases, the respondents reported reliance mainly on other producers in Kunisaki City, the shiitake cooperative, and a parent (51%, 39%, and 18%, respectively, with multiple answers possible). Seven producers reported relying on other channels for information, such as manufacturers of spawn blocks (10%). Therefore, as climate change threatens the environmental conditions necessary for producing low-temperature shiitake, producers and organizations have been forced to consult other channels of information beyond their parents.

Effect of climate change on shiitake production

Regarding the recognition of the producers about climate change, the majority reported observing temperature increases for all seasons (88%, 97%, 82%, and 92% in spring, summer, fall, and winter, respectively; Supplementary Fig. 4). Regarding changes in precipitation reported by producers, the most common was a decrease in snowfall (85%). In general, producers are concerned with snowfall because it stimulates the growth of shiitake in spring. Following a decrease in snowfall, the second most notable change was the increase of precipitation in summer (32%). In recent years, producers perceived that rainfall has increased. For example, in July 2020, Oita Prefecture received considerable media attention for experiencing extreme rainfall events.

The most adopted climate change countermeasures were relatively small in scope, with the three most adopted methods being piling branches and leaves on top of fusekomi (47%), converting spawn blocks from low-temperature to middle-temperature spawn blocks (46%), and allowing weeds to remain (39%; Supplementary Fig. 5). The less common countermeasures required access to cooler land or a water source, with the most common methods being sprinkling water in winter (25%), moving bed logs or changing the locations of hodaba (28%), and relocating fusekomi (33%).

The producers were also grouped into five categories according to the ratio of the total shiitake production occupied by low-temperature varieties (0%–20%, 21%–40%, and 81–100% of the total production for 28%, 25%, and 23% of all producers, respectively; Figure 3b). Thus, the ratio for the majority of producers was less than 50%. However, certain producers continued to focus on producing low-temperature varieties.

Difficulty in implementing climate change countermeasures was related to labor input issues, cost, and insufficient knowledge of cultivation techniques. Producers pinpointed 3 out of 11 sources as difficult when adopting climate change countermeasures (Supplementary Fig. 6). They were concerned about additional labor input (38%) and cost (35%), indicating that certain countermeasures may be unavailable to producers. Furthermore, certain producers reported that the current technological development was insufficiently advanced (36%). Others commented that climate change information (35%) and knowledge on cultivation (33%) were insufficient. Thus, once scientific knowledge and cultivation practice for adapting to climate change become available, thorough guidance and outreach must be provided.

Correlation coefficient

The correlation coefficients were calculated to determine the relationship between the ratio of low-temperature production to the variables of production and sales, knowledge transmission, climate change, and topography. To avoid insufficient data, the sample size used for current and all subsequent analyses was 43. The factors “areas of owned sawtooth forests” and “forest areas to buy forest stands for shiitake production” were combined as an indicator of production size. The area of hodaba, which is another factor of production size, was calculated through the addition of owned and rented lands of hodaba.

The study identified a moderate correlation between the ratio of low-temperature variety production and selling with the Kaori Chan brand (0.45), while a weak correlation was noted with years of experience as a family (0.20), annual sales (−0.24), transmission of production knowledge from a parent (0.25), consultation with other producers in Kunisaki City when experiencing problems (0.21), perceived precipitation increase in spring (0.27), additional cost as an obstacle to adopting climate change countermeasures (0.24), average elevation of the agricultural community (−0.21), and average slope of an agricultural community (–0.26).

Certain correlations were noted among the variables identified as correlated variables with the ratio of production of low-temperature varieties. Years of family experience was moderately correlated with the transmission of production knowledge from a parent (0.53) and weakly correlated with annual sales and regarding additional cost as an obstacle to adopting climate change countermeasures (0.33 and −0.22 respectively). Consultation with other producers in Kunisaki City when experiencing problems was moderately correlated with average elevation (0.50) and weakly correlated with average slope (−0.26). The average elevation was moderately correlated with average slope (0.56).

Discriminant analysis

Discriminant analysis was conducted to identify the characteristics of producers whose ratio of low-temperature shiitake production was higher than the average of 39.4%. The independent variables identified by calculating the correlation coefficient are as follows: annual sales; learning cultivation knowledge from a parent; consultation with other producers in Kunisaki City when experiencing problems; perceived increase in precipitation in spring; regarding additional cost an obstacle to adopting climate change countermeasures; average elevation of the agricultural community; and average slope of the agricultural community. Discriminant analysis excluded years of family experience because of concerns over multicollinearity with the transmission of production knowledge from a parent variable. Additionally, discriminant analysis, excluding years of family experience, resulted in a higher percentage of correct classification using cross-validation than when the analysis included the variable (76.7% versus 53.5%).

The canonical correlation of the discriminant analysis was 0.747, indicating that the model was appropriate. Furthermore, the groups were significantly divided by the average ratio according to Wilks’ lambda measure (p = .00). The results demonstrate that the correctness of the estimation was 76.7% with cross-validation (Table 3). Thus, discriminant analysis successfully identified the characteristics of target producers.

Table 3. Classification results.

		Ratio of low-temperature shiitake production	Predicted group membership		Total
			0	1
Original	Count	Less than the average (0)	20	3	23
		More than the average (1)	2	18	20
	%	Less than the average (0)	87.0	13.0	100.0
		More than the average (1)	10.0	90.0	100.0
Grouped for cross-validation	Count	Less than the average (0)	17	6	23
		More than the average (1)	4	16	20
	%	Less than the average (0)	73.9	26.1	100.0
		More than the average (1)	20.0	80.0	100.0

When considering standardized discriminant coefficients, producers whose ratio of low-temperature variety production exceeded the average had low sales, reflecting a small production size (coefficient: −0.633; Table 4). They also sold with the Kaori Chan brand (0.840). In terms of knowledge transmission, the producers obtained cultivation knowledge from parents (0.425). For climate change, producers with a high ratio in the production of low-temperature varieties tended to regard additional cost as an obstacle for adopting countermeasures to climate change (0.473). Thus, the availability of inexpensive countermeasures likely facilitates adaptation to climate change. The communities of producers with high ratios in the production of low-temperature varieties were located in gently sloping areas (−0.678). Conversely, producers with a less-than-average ratio of low-temperature variety production tended to have large production size and were located in communities on steep slopes. Moreover, they tended not to sell through the Kaori Chan brand. Moreover, they did not obtain cultivation knowledge from a parent and were less likely to be concerned about additional costs when adopting climate change countermeasures.

Table 4. Standardized canonical discriminant function coefficients.

	Function 1
Transmission of cultivation knowledge from a parent	0.425
Consultation with another producer in Kunisaki City when experiencing problems	−0.312
Cost concern because of difficulty in implementing climate change countermeasures	0.473
Elevation	−0.216
Slope	−0.678
Annual sales	−0.633
Selling with the Kaori Chan brand	0.840
Perceived precipitation increase in spring	0.155

88.4% of the originally grouped data are correctly classified. 76.7% data are correctly classified through cross-validation, which assigns each case to the model made from all other cases. This procedure validates the application of discriminant analysis to the grouped data.

Mann–Whitney U test

The Mann–Whitney U test analyzes the difference between the two groups using a nonparametric methodology (p < .05). In this study, the Mann–Whitney U test analyzed the variables based on the discriminant analysis (Table 4). The thresholds for separating the groups were the average ratio (39.4%) and 50% of the production of low-temperature shiitake varieties. A significant difference was noted between selling with the Kaori Chan brand and average slopes (p = 0.003 and p = 0.006, respectively) in terms of the variables of groups separated by the average ratio of low-temperature shiitake production. These variables are significant to increase the production of low-temperature shiitake above the average ratio. In other words, producers with higher-than-average ratios of low-temperature shiitake can utilize the brand for improved sales.

Furthermore, analysis classified the producers into two groups: those with >50% and <50% of production of low-temperature shiitake. Analysis revealed a significant difference in the annual sales for the two groups (p = 0.027). Thus, annual sales became a significant variable for increasing the ratio of low-temperature variety production from the average to more than 50%. Thus, small-scale producers tended to specialize in low-temperature shiitake (Figure 2d). Alternatively, large-scale producers were less likely to expose themselves to unstable production risks and therefore increased their production of middle-temperature shiitake. This tendency may continue because of the intensification of climate change, which is likely to affect small-scale producers. Apart from the current adaptation measures, such trends present further ramifications in terms of the future modes of knowledge transmission.

Discussion

As one of the first comprehensive analyses of shiitake producers with a focus on climate change adaptation, SFM, and NTFP production, this study demonstrated that shifting to shiitake varieties suitable to higher temperature is an insufficient or unreliable countermeasure for adapting to global warming. Concerns related to the adaptation of NTFPs to climate change will become increasingly severe in the case that climate change marginalizes high-quality or branded NTFPs contributing to SFM. This tendency requires a plan that is especially cautious about the adaptation measures used for shifting NTFP varieties to a certain level. Moreover, the plan should integrate this novel insight in SFM under climate change. Shiitake mushrooms, as an important regional NTFP, generate income for producers and conserve forests in a multifunctional manner within the Kunisaki GIAHS site. Moreover, multiple brands have supported their cultivation and sales, especially low-temperature varieties (Figure 4). Although the cultivation of low-temperature shiitake has become less favorable in the Kunisaki GIAHS site in recent years, it has contributed to the maintenance of income among small-scale producers. To sustain this type of production, a continuous provision of information on adaptation is essential, which demands attention to a long-term solution to climate change (Gioli et al., 2014) in a culturally sensitive manner (Lynn et al., 2013). Gioli et al. (2014) discussed short-sighted adaptation measures among farmers with a relatively monolithic interpretation. Alternatively, the current study demonstrated measures for climate change adaptation under SFM, which requires attention to the consideration of the individual needs of multiple types of producers through detailed data collection at the local level. Climate change adaptation by selecting varieties that can adapt to temperature increase differently influences producers according to location and production size within the same GIAHS area. This diversity requires appropriate coordination for a long-term solution among policymakers and producers. Additionally, cooperative land use can be planned along with the identification of suitable land for low-temperature shiitake. Such coordination on several land-use types will be essential as a long-term solution to meet the demand in adapting to climate change and conserving biodiversity along with continued SFM. Furthermore, examining the sustenance of NTFP production has become the concern of studies on sustaining the NTFP production modes of knowledge transmission (Kohsaka & Rogel, 2019; Kohsaka et al., 2015). This study demonstrated that knowledge transmission influenced the production of low-temperature shiitake. Moreover, the tendency to cultivate low-temperature shiitake was stronger among producers who obtained cultivation knowledge from a parent. The same tendency was identified in the inter-generational sustenance of NTFP production in East Asia (Kohsaka et al., 2017; Uchiyama et al., 2017). However, this tendency may be influenced by temperature increases in the Kunisaki GIAHS site. Thus, producers with different production sizes have adopted differing approaches, that is, opting to continue growing the same or new varieties. This trend is observed even in areas with shared traditional knowledge and practices, such as in the GIAHS site. Increased problems related to production can decrease the tendency of a producer to consult with a parent. Instead, producers increasingly consult other producers and the shiitake cooperative (Supplementary Fig. 3). Thus, they become more adaptive to modern knowledge on mushroom cultivation, which is a case similar to new producers (Kohsaka et al., 2015). Thus, the family as a channel of knowledge transmission is likely to become less dominant as global warming exacerbates changes within the Kunisaki GIAHS site. Horizontal and oblique knowledge transmission should be increased to compensate for the decrease in vertical knowledge transmission and ensure long-term sustainability (Kohsaka et al., 2020). By definition, vertical, horizontal, and oblique modes of knowledge transmission are based on family, age, and other factors, respectively (Kohsaka & Rogel, 2019). In this context, policy measures should increase access to adaptation measures based on the ongoing climate change. Such policies need to facilitate individual and organizational approaches and respect consultation with small-scale producers of low-temperature varieties at the same time (Figure 4). The shift in knowledge transmission identified by this study requires tuning in to climate change adaptation and SFM to develop long-term solutions for producers with varying scenarios in production.

Figure 4. Outlook for potential adaptations to shiitake production at the Kunisaki GIAHS site.

Note: + and − indicate the positive and negative effects, respectively, of the variables on low-temperature shiitake production.

Although scholars discussed the economic impact of NTFP production and its potential (Kohsaka & Miyake, 2021; Lovrić et al., 2020), the current study compares shiitake producers using more detailed data collection and analysis and discusses sales channels that are instrumental in supporting low-temperature shiitake varieties. Additionally, the results suggest that production size influences specialization, indicating that if small-scale producers utilize branding, they can manage to produce more niche varieties despite climate change. The current branding, however, focuses on taste and fragrance, while the environmental aspects are highlighted in a less meaningful manner. Another observation is the accelerating trend of the attempt of large-scale producers to avoid risks associated with the instability of low-temperature varieties. Conversely, small-scale producers are aware of the additional costs of countermeasures. Thus, small- and large-scale producers can reach an agreement in terms of cooperating for the development of low-cost adaptation measures. The factors mentioned in the interviews, such as sloped terrain and the perception of producers of increasing spring rain, were not identified as factors that influence climate change adaptation. Therefore, further research on the nuanced perceptions of producers regarding the natural environment is necessary for the maintenance of environmentally sensitive and marginalized NTFPs.

Studies on knowledge transmission for the production of NTFPs suggested that the strength of the transmission from parents supported the inter-generational sustenance of the production (Kohsaka et al., 2017; Uchiyama et al., 2017). Under climate change, the mode of knowledge transmission influenced low-temperature shiitake production among small-scale producers. The current study demonstrated that knowledge transmission via family members (mainly from parents to children) may diminish in terms of importance. Consultation with other producers and related organizations is likely to become increasingly prevalent to compensate for the shortcomings of familial knowledge transmission (Supplementary Fig. 3). Thus, the vertical transmission of traditional and in situ cultivation knowledge contributed to the production of low-temperature shiitake in the Kunisaki GIAHS site. However, the study cautions that exclusively focusing on this mode of transmission could limit new product innovation, the adoption of new production methods (Kohsaka & Rogel, 2019; Kohsaka et al., 2015; Tashiro et al., 2019), and the long-term sustainability of communities and ecosystems. With the acceleration in global warming, shiitake production at the Kunisaki GIAHS site may experience additional obstacles, and additional horizontal and oblique transmission is expected for long-term sustainable production. Thus, future policies should promote the combination of the cross-sectoral and cross-generational transmission of knowledge. Such policies should be supported by a longitudinal study to collect information on the productivity of shiitake varieties grown by individual producers. Such studies can elucidate effective practices in addition to social and environmental differences among shiitake producers in the Kunisaki GIAHS site. Scholars have described the function of outreach services for NTFP production and agroforestry management (Facheux et al., 2007; Kohsaka et al., 2015). Thus, future studies should conduct outreach services to enable community-level discussions about climate change adaptation. Moreover, local governments can organize a platform for facilitating discussions with a wide range of stakeholders. The Climate Change Adaptation Information Platform (2018) provides a manual for formulating a plan for climate change adaptation. Therefore, the detailed survey of shiitake production in the current study, which compares production practice with actual crops, is a prerequisite to effective communication (Thomas et al., 2017).

This study investigated how shiitake producers adapt to climate change. Specifically, the authors explored how producers adopt other varieties that are more resistant to global warming. The limitations of this study include its site-specific characteristics and the type of NTFP products. Moreover, this study focused on log cultivation to produce dried shiitake on the eastern side of Oita Prefecture. The prefecture is located on Kyushu Island, including Miyazaki and Kumamoto Prefectures, which are the second and fourth largest prefectures, respectively, in the production of log-cultivated dried shiitake (MAFF, 2020a). Thus, this study provides the much needed insight for adapting to climate change in terms of shiitake production in Japan and its neighboring countries in East Asia. Second, this study focused on shiitake, which is highly symbolic and relational in the Kunisaki GIAHS site. Nevertheless, additional studies on different types of NTFPs will provide a comprehensive perspective that can contribute to their production and related SFM. Methodologically, this study did not conduct random sampling. Although the scale validation remained at the fundamental level, multiple checking and modification of the questionnaire draft improved the validity, which reinforced and strengthened the discussion points. The present study implies that adaptation to climate change is mainly concerned with the environmental and socio-economic situations of producers and biodiversity conservation with producers’ cyclical use of the forest. This scenario is aligned with the concerns and policy suggestions that emerged from the co-sponsored report of the IPCC and the IPBES (Pörtner et al., 2021). The report and the current study suggest the need for future studies.

Thus, the results of this study imply the need for future studies on the entanglement of social factors with environmental factors in the context of the multifunctional rural landscape. Toward this end, the authors pose the following questions. First, can policies target the multiple functions that producers play in natural and cultural landscapes? Second, producers in this study diverged in their reactions and adaptations to climate change. The current log cultivation of shiitake and adaptation to climate change are dominantly individual practices. In this context, is it possible for producers to network and cooperate on climate change adaptation? Finally, are there timely adaptation measures that can facilitate the production of traditional and high-quality NTFPs and food that is interrelated with local ecosystems? The response to this question will require the sustenance of high-quality marginalized varieties and the local environment with regard to global climate change. These questions apply to not only the NTFPs in the GIAHS site but also to traditional and rural production in developed and developing countries coping with climate change. In the end, this study was concerned with the maintenance of minor crop varieties and the local environment in response to changes in local climate and ecology.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Data availability statement

Data for this article are reserved in availability because any individual data can identify a specific respondent. The supplementary material provides the relevant items of the questionnaire. For a further inquiry, contact the corresponding author.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/10549811.2022.2123822

Additional information

Funding

The work was supported by the following grants: Kunisaki Peninsula Usa Area GIAHS Research Project; Kurita Water and Environment Foundation 20C002; JST RISTEX Grant Number JPMJRX20B3, Japan; JST Grant Number JPMJPF2110; the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers JP16KK0053, JP17K02105, and JP21K18456. Additionally, the grants included the JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22H03852: JSPS KAKENHI Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), 2022-2025, Balancing Tourism and Conservation in Era of Climate Change and Shrinkage: Land Use Maps as a Boundary Object.