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ABSTRACT

In 2010, six years after news broke that the A. Q. Khan nuclear smuggling ring was making components for Libya’s nuclear program a short distance from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia adopted comprehensive export controls. Because Malaysia, like many developing and middle-income countries, had little to gain in security terms from such controls and potentially much to lose economically, its decision to introduce them seems puzzling. Drawing on a series of interviews with Malaysian officials and civil society, this article contributes to a growing literature on states’ nonproliferation policies by exploring that puzzle. The article considers the existing literature that purports to explain why states impose export controls and identifies three plausible factors behind Malaysia’s decision to do so: international norms, side payments, and political leadership. The article then details Kuala Lumpur’s development of export controls and assesses the role of each factor. Consistent with recent studies of the international nonproliferation order, the article concludes that Malaysia’s decision to introduce export controls was driven mainly by the promise of political and economic side payments from external actors, especially the United States, and by domestic changes in political leadership.

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank Dr. Hoo Chiew Ping of the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia for her support, the interviewees for their contributions, and Daniel Horner and the two anonymous reviewers of the Nonproliferation Review for their suggestions. The author is grateful to the Asia New Zealand Foundation for a research grant to carry out this project.

Notes

1 See, for example, Douglas Frantz and Catherine Collins, The Nuclear Jihadist: The True Story of the Man Who Sold the World’s Most Dangerous Secrets … And How We Could Have Stopped Him (New York: Twelve, 2007).

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5 Richard Cupitt, Suzette Grillot, and Yuzo Murayama, “The Determinants of Nonproliferation Export Controls: A Membership-Fee Explanation,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 8, No. 2 (2001), pp. 69–80.

6 Gene Grossman and Elhanan Helpman, “Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and Growth,” European Economic Review, Vol. 35, Nos. 2–3 (1991), pp. 517–26.

7 Scott Jones and Johannes Karreth, “Assessing the Economic Impact of Adopting Strategic Trade Controls,” Center for International Trade and Security, University of Georgia and Science Applications International Corporation, 2010, <https://media.nti.org/pdfs/off_us_dept_21.pdf>.

8 Matthew Fuhrmann, “Making 1540 Work: Achieving Universal Compliance with Nonproliferation Export Control Standards,” World Affairs, Vol. 169, No. 3 (2007), p. 145.

9 Evan Medeiros, Reluctant Restraint: The Evolution of China’s Nonproliferation Policies and Practices, 1980–2004 (Singapore: NUS Press, 2009), p. 4.

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11 Brahma Chellaney, “An Indian Critique of US Export Controls,” Orbis, Vol. 38, No. 3 (1994), p. 25; Brad Roberts, "Export Controls and Biological Weapons: New Roles, New Challenges,” Critical Reviews in Microbiology, Vol. 24, No. 3 (1998), p. 244.

12 Ian Anthony, Christer Ahlström, and Vitaly Fedchenko, Reforming Nuclear Export Controls: The Future of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp. 93–95, <https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/files/RR/SIPRIRR22.pdf>.

13 Scott Jones, “Resolution 1540: Universalizing Export Control Standards?” Arms Control Today, May 2006, <https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006-05/features/resolution-1540-universalizing-export-control-standards>. p. 18; Stinnett et al., “Complying by Denying.”

14 Francis Fukuyama, “Governance: What Do We Know, and How Do We Know It?” Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2016), pp. 89–105.

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16 Abram Chayes and Antonia Chayes, “On Compliance,” International Organization, Vol. 47, No. 2 (1993), pp. 175–205.

17 Stinnett et al., “Complying by Denying.”

18 Katerina Linos, “How Can International Organizations Shape National Welfare States? Evidence from Compliance with European Union Directives,” Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 40, No. 5 (2007), pp. 547–70.

19 Matthew Kroenig, Exporting the Bomb: Technology Transfer and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2011).

20 Francis Gavin, “Strategies of Inhibition: US Grand Strategy, the Nuclear Revolution, and Nonproliferation,” International Security, Vol. 40, No. 1 (2015), pp. 9–46.

21 Kroenig, Exporting the Bomb, pp. 16–33.

22 Brad Roberts, "Controlling the Proliferation of Biological Weapons," Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 2, No. 1 (1994), p. 56.

23 Nina Tannenwald, “Stigmatizing the Bomb: Origins of the Nuclear Taboo,” International Security, Vol. 29, No. 4 (2005), pp. 5–49.

24 Maria Rublee, Nonproliferation Norms: Why States Choose Nuclear Restraint (Athens, GA: University of Georgia Press, 2009).

25 Richard Price, “A Genealogy of the Chemical Weapons Taboo,” International Organization, Vol. 49, No. 1 (1995), pp. 73–103.

26 Brad Roberts, “From Nonproliferation to Antiproliferation,” International Security, Vol. 18, No. 1 (1993), pp. 139–73.

27 Daniel Joyner, “The Proliferation Security Initiative: Nonproliferation, Counterproliferation, and International Law,” Yale Journal of International Law, Vol. 30 (2005), p. 507.

28 UN Security Council, “Note by the President of the Security Council,” S/23500, January 31, 1992, <https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/PKO%20S%2023500.pdf>.

29 UN Security Council, “Resolution 1540,” S/RES/1540, April 28, 2004, <https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/sc1540/>.

30 Joanne Gowa and Edward Mansfield, “Power Politics and International Trade,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 87, No. 2 (1993), pp. 408–20.

31 Tim Büthe and Helen Milner, “Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment: A Political Analysis,” in Karl Sauvant, ed., The Effect of Treaties on Foreign Direct Investment: Bilateral Investment Treaties, Double Taxation Treaties, and Investment Flows (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009) pp. 171–225; Leonardo Baccini and Johannes Urpelainen, “Strategic Side Payments: Preferential Trading Agreements, Economic Reform, and Foreign Aid,” Journal of Politics, Vol. 74, No. 4 (2012), pp. 932–49.

32 Mitchell Reiss, Bridled Ambition: Why Countries Constrain Their Nuclear Capabilities (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1995), p. 120.

33 Andrew Coe and Jane Vaynman, “Collusion and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” Journal of Politics, Vol. 77, No. 4 (2015), pp. 983–97.

34 Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009), p. 44.

35 Cupitt et al., “The Determinants of Nonproliferation Export Controls”; Glenn Chafetz, “The Political Psychology of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” Journal of Politics, Vol. 57, No. 3 (1995), pp. 743–75.

36 Jacques Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006).

37 Matthew Fuhrmann and Michael Horowitz, “When Leaders Matter: Rebel Experience and Nuclear Proliferation,” Journal of Politics, Vol. 77, No. 1 (2015), pp. 72–87.

38 Rachel Whitlark, “Nuclear Beliefs: A Leader-Focused Theory of Counter-Proliferation,” Security Studies, Vol. 26, No. 4 (2017), pp. 545–74.

39 Stephanie Lieggi, “Dual-Use Technology in Southeast Asia: Nonproliferation Challenges for the Next Decade,” Strategic Trade Review, Vol. 2 (2016), pp. 73–89.

40 Kassenova, “1540 in Practice”; George Tan, “Export Controls in the ASEAN Region,” 1540 Compass, Vol. 1, No. 2 (2012); Tanya Ogilvie-White, “Non-proliferation and Counter-Terrorism Cooperation.”

41 Kassenova, “1540 in Practice,” p. 10.

42 Stephanie Lieggi, Catherine Dill, and Diane Lee, “Project Final Report: The Growing Nonproliferation Challenges in Southeast Asia—Forecasting Emerging Capabilities and Its Implications on the Control of Sensitive WMD-Related Technologies,” James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2016, p. 7.

43 Mohamed Kareem, “Implementation and Enforcement of Strategic Trade Controls in Malaysia,” Strategic Trade Review, Vol. 2, No. 2 (2016), p. 107.

44 Paul Leventhal, “Nuclear Export Controls: Can We Plug the Leaks?” in Jean-François Rioux, ed., Limiting the Proliferation of Weapons: The Role of Supply-Side Strategies (Ottawa: Carleton University Press, 1992), pp. 39–52; Richard T. Cupitt, Reluctant Champions: US Presidential Policy and Strategic Export Controls: Truman, Eisenhower, Bush and Clinton (New York: Routledge, 2000).

45 Matthew Kroenig and Tristan Volpe, “3-D Printing the Bomb? The Nuclear Nonproliferation Challenge,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 38, No. 3 (2015), pp. 7–19.

46 Gordon Corera, Shopping for Bombs: Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and Fall of the A. Q. Khan Network (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2009), pp. 186–89.

47 International Institute for Strategic Studies, Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, AQ Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks: A Net Assessment (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2007), p. 77.

48 Sydney Morning Herald, “Malaysia Will Not Act on Nuclear Sales Affair,” February 23, 2004, <https://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysia-will-not-act-on-nuclear-sales-affair-20040223-gdieq2.html>.

49 Raymond Bonner and Wayne Arnold, “‘Business as Usual’ at Plant that Tenet Says Was Shut,” New York Times, July 2, 2004, <https://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/07/world/business-as-usual-at-plant-that-tenet-says-was-shut.html>.

50 Alexander Montgomery, “Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (2005), p. 153.

51 Raymond Bonner, “Malaysian Company Tied to Nuclear Trade Network,” New York Times, May 2, 2004, <https://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/05/world/malaysian-company-tied-to-nuclear-trade-network.html>.

52 Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz, Fallout: The True Story of the CIA’s Secret War on Nuclear Trafficking (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011), p. 262.

53 Sim Leoi, “Malaysia to Protest over Bush’s Speech,” The Star, February 15, 2004, <https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2004/02/15/malaysia-to-protest-over-bushs-speech>.

54 Sydney Morning Herald, “Malaysia Will Not Act.”

55 Associated Press, “US Urges Malaysia to Tighten Controls to Curb Proliferation,” reprinted in Taipei Times, February 20, 2004, <http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2004/02/20/2003099442>.

56 Malaysian Royal Police Office, “Press Release by Inspector General of Police in Relation to Investigation on the Alleged Production of Components for Libya’s Uranium Enrichment Programme,” February 20, 2004, <https://www.iranwatch.org/library/government/malaysia/royal-police-office/press-release-inspector-general-police-relation-investigation-alleged-production-components-libya's>.

57 Associated Press, “US Urges Malaysia to Tighten Controls.”

58 Asian Export Control Observer, “Malaysia Not to Sign Additional NPT Protocols,” June 2004, p. 4.

59 Sheldon Simon, “A WMD Discovery in Malaysia and Counter-Terrorism Concerns in the Rest of Southeast Asia,” Comparative Connections, Vol. 6, No. 1 (2004), pp. 59–67.

60 Mohamed Kareem, former strategic trade controller, Malaysia, interview with author, Putrajaya, Malaysia, April 17, 2018; Jamal Ibrahim, director, Nuclear Power Programme Development, Prime Minister’s Department, Malaysia, interview with author, Putrajaya, Malaysia, April 21, 2018.

61 Nuclear Threat Initiative, “Malaysia Joins Container Security Initiative,” September 3, 2004, <https://www.nti.org/gsn/article/malaysia-joins-container-security-initiative/>; P.T. Bangsberg, “Malaysia Port Gets U.S. Customs Agents,” Journal of Commerce, August 18, 2004, <https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/malaysia-port-gets-us-customs-agents_20040818.html>.

62 William Case, “How’s My Driving? Abdullah’s First Year as Malaysian PM,” Pacific Review, Vol. 18, No. 2 (2005), pp. 137–57.

63 Case, “How’s My Driving?” p. 150.

64 Sydney Morning Herald, “Malaysia Questions Bush Allegations,” February 13, 2004, <https://www.smh.com.au/national/malaysia-questions-bush-allegations-20040213-gdicl0.html>.

65 The Star, “Probe Firm without Fear or Favour, PM Tells Police,” February 6, 2004, <https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2004/02/06/probe-firm-without-fear-or-favour-pm-tells-police>.

66 Agence France-Presse, “US Shielding PM: Malaysian Party,” reprinted in Dawn, June 3, 2004, <https://www.dawn.com/news/352992/us-shielding-pm-malaysian-party>.

67 Ahmad Kamil Jaafar, Growing up with the Nation (London: Marshall Cavendish, 2013); Ogilvie-White, “Non-proliferation and Counter-Terrorism Cooperation in Southeast Asia.”

68 Report by Malaysia Prepared Pursuant to Operative Paragraph 4 of Security Council Resolution 1540 (2004), S/AC.44/2004/(02)/35, United Nations Security Council, 2010, <https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N04/594/24/PDF/N0459424.pdf?OpenElement>.

69 Peter Keong, Ministry of International Trade and Industry, interview with author, Putrajaya, Malaysia, April 18, 2018.

70 Kareem interview.

71 Nik Mahmod, International Islamic University Malaysia, interview with author, Kuala Lumpur, April 22, 2018.

72 Keong interview; Kareem interview.

73 Kareem interview.

74 Reuters, “UPDATE 1-Malaysia Scomi Names Managers; CEO in U.S. Probe,” April 17, 2009, <https://www.reuters.com/article/scomi/update-1-malaysia-scomi-names-managers-ceo-in-u-s-probe-idUSKLR21744520090417>.

75 Periasamy Gunasekaran, “Port Security in a Developing Country—Pre and Post 9/11 Terrorist Attacks: A Case Study on Port Klang in Malaysia,” PhD diss., University of Greenwich, 2012.

76 Kareem interview.

77 Keong interview.

78 Daniel Salisbury, “Trade Controls and Non-Proliferation: Compliance Costs, Drivers and Challenges,” Business and Politics, Vol. 15, No. 4 (2013), pp. 529–51.

79 Pamela Sodhy, “Malaysia–US Relations,” in Abdul Razak Baginda, ed., Malaysia’s Foreign Policy: Continuity and Change (Singapore: Marshall Cavendish International, 2007), p. 7.

80 Sodhy, “Malaysia–US Relations,” p. 30.

81 Daniel Salisbury, “Exploring the Use of ‘Third Countries’ in Proliferation Networks: The Case of Malaysia,” European Journal of International Security, Vol. 4, No. 1 (2019), pp. 101–22.

82 Robert Sutter, “The Obama Administration and US Policy in Asia,” Defence Talk, Vol. 31, No. 2 (2009), pp. 189–216.

83 Robert Kaplan, “Obama Shines in Cairo,” The Atlantic, June 2009, <https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/06/obama-shines-in-cairo/307559/>.

85 Sutter, “The Obama Administration and US Policy in Asia.”

86 Najib Razak, “U.S.–Malaysia Defense Cooperation: A Solid Success Story,” February 5, 2005, <https://www.heritage.org/asia/report/us-malaysia-defense-cooperation-solid-success-story>.

87 Razak, “U.S.–Malaysia Defense Cooperation.”

88 Najib Razak, “Malaysian Foreign Policy: Future Direction for 2009–2015,” keynote address at 7th Heads of Mission Conference, Putrajaya, Malaysia, June 22, 2006, <https://www.pmo.gov.my/ucapan/?m=p&p=najib&id=3925>.

89 David Pine, former New Zealand ambassador to Malaysia, interview with author, Christchurch, New Zealand, January 6, 2018.

90 White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Remarks by President Barack Obama in Prague as Delivered,” April 5, 2009, <https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-barack-obama-prague-delivered>.

91 Sam Nunn, “Statement from Sam Nunn on G8 Summit,” July 8, 2009, <https://www.nti.org/newsroom/news/statement-sam-nunn-g8-summit/>.

92 Clifford Levy and Peter Baker, “US–Russia Nuclear Agreement Is First Step in Broad Effort,” New York Times, 2009, <https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/07/world/europe/07prexy.html>.

93 Sarah Diehl and Paula Humphrey, “The April 2010 Nuclear Security Summit: One More Step toward the Mountaintop,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, April 19, 2010, <https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/april-2010-nuclear-security-summit/>.

94 Joan Rohlfing, “Nuclear Security Summits,” Horizons: Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development, No. 7 (2016), pp. 134–43.

95 James Keith, “Renewed Leadership, Shared Future,” speech at Malaysian Armed Forces Defence College, Kuala Lumpur, March 26, 2009.

96 James Keith, “Potential and Relevance in Malaysia,” speech at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, February 27, 2009, quoted in Stephanie Lieggi and Richard Sabatini, “Malaysia’s Export Control Law: A Step Forward, but How Big,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, May 9, 2010, <https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/malaysias-export-control-law/>.

97 Kareem, “Implementation and Enforcement of Strategic Trade Controls in Malaysia,” p. 108.

98 Kareem interview.

99 Kareem, “Implementation and Enforcement of Strategic Trade Controls in Malaysia,” p. 105.

100 Kareem interview.

101 Ronald McCoy, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War Malaysia, interview with author, Kuala Lumpur, April 19, 2018.

102 Gunasekaran, “Port Security in a Developing Country,” p. 195.

103 Keong interview.

104 Keong interview.

105 Keong interview.

106 US Department of State, “Remarks [by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton] with Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah Aman,” Kuala Lumpur, November 2, 2010, <https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2010/11/150321.htm>.

107 Lim Lee, “Obama Congratulates Najib on His Stance on Weapons of Mass Destruction,” The Star, April 13, 2010 <https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2010/04/13/obama-congratulates-najib-on-his-stance-on-weapons-of-mass-destruction>; Borneo Post, “Malaysia and US Agree to Strengthen Nuke Treaty,” April 14, 2010, <https://www.theborneopost.com/2010/04/14/malaysia-and-us-agree-to-strengthen-nuke-treaty/>.

108 Ian Rinehart, “Malaysia: Background and U.S. Relations,” CRS Report R43505, Congressional Research Service, 2014, pp. 14–15, <https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20140421_R43505_6d8678f81d44cf10e984b92e9e8bce5701dfcff3.pdf>.

109 Department of Statistics Malaysia, “Statistics of Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia, 2020,” June 18, 2021, <https://www.dosm.gov.my/v1/index.php?r=column/cthemeByCat&cat=322&bul_id=WjJ6NU94Z3haUHEzcUxMaEdVbVVBQT09&menu_id=azJjRWpYL0VBYU90TVhpclByWjdMQT09>.

110 Lee, “Obama Congratulates Najib.”

111 Todd Perry, “Reducing Proliferation Risk through Export Control Outreach: Assistance Providers’ Use of Maturity Model-Based Approaches,” Strategic Trade Review, Vol. 5, No. 7 (2019), pp. 5–24.

112 Mohamad Mahathir, speech to International Nuclear Conference, Kuala Lumpur, October 15, 2002, <https://www.pmo.gov.my/ucapan/?m=p&p=mahathir&id=1183>.

113 US Government Accountability Office, Nonproliferation: US Efforts to Combat Nuclear Networks Need Better Data on Proliferation Risks and Program Results (Washington, DC, 2007), pp. 13-14, <https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-08-21.pdf>.

114 Kareem interview.

115 Mark J. Valencia, “The Proliferation Security Initiative: Should Malaysia Join?” Maritime Studies, No. 142 (2005), pp. 14–16.

116 Rebecca Davis Gibbons, “American Hegemony and the Politics of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” PhD diss., Georgetown University, 2016.

117 Chafetz, “The Political Psychology of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime;” Solingen, Nuclear Logics.

118 Lawrence Scheinman, ed., Implementing Resolution 1540: The Role of Regional Organizations (New York: United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, 2008), <https://unidir.org/sites/default/files/publication/pdfs//implementing-resolution-1540-the-role-of-regional-organizations-339.pdf>.

119 Ogilvie-White, “Non-proliferation and Counter-Terrorism Cooperation.”

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Paul Winter

Paul Winter holds a PhD in politics and a master’s degree in international studies from the University of Otago. In 2016 he conducted postgraduate research as a Fulbright Scholar at Georgetown University, and he is a recipient of a Freyberg Scholarship. His previous publications focused on international security, nuclear proliferation, and statistical modeling. He currently works for the New Zealand government.

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