A Scoping Study of User Needs for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change in the UK Context: Part 1 of the Development of an Interactive Integrated Assessment Process

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a survey of the needs of UK organisations for information from integrated assessments of climate change. It was carried out as part of the development of the Tyndall Centre's Interactive Integrated Assessment Process (IIAP), which aims to provide policy-relevant research on climate change through integrated analysis embedded in a two-way 'learning' process with stakeholders. The survey consisted of 40 interviews with a wide range of organisations drawn from government, NGOs and the private sector (users of climate change-related information) over the period November 2002-February 2003. In the interviews we discussed with participants their current use of climate change-related information, where knowledge gaps exist, and what kinds of questions they believe need addressing now and over the next five years. A number of important findings and implications for our research emerged from analysis of the interviews: There is less need for information on climate change per se than on information to support difficult and complicated decisions on responses to climate change; often this relates to the political and commercial process rather than to scientific research. Information on climate change is used for a range of differing purposes (policy-making, organisational planning, media, and advocacy) and this has implications for the nature of the information required. Many users operate at the local and regional scales, below the resolution of the best current climate models. Users regarded a clear treatment of uncertainty as vital (also implying that it is important for scientists to give honest assessments of the level of confidence to which particular questions might be answered). Information about adaptation to the impacts of climate change, placed in a wider context of social and economic change, is a key element of many users' information needs. The trust and confidence of users in research products or tools is not a given. It must be developed or maintained through the process of interaction with the research. For this reason, and to ensure relevance, it is vital to communicate with users on the co-design of tools. A key issue for many users is the importance of being able to understand the working and key assumptions of computer models in lay terms. The value of simple models should therefore not be underestimated. Some users need numerical models, some need a synthesis of current research results, some need more confidence in the basis of analysis from researchers, some need scenarios and some need judgements of possible human behaviour. There is a need to use models, scenarios and other tools (such as visual images of futures) assembled in the most appropriate way for each user question. We call such an approach 'strategic guidance'.

Keywords:

• Integrated assessment
• participatory methods
• stakeholders
• climate change
• interactive science