Digital project twin for quantitative cost, risk and schedule assessment of capital projects

ABSTRACT

Digital twin – a representation of an object or process from the real into the digital world. Key aspects are the transfer of data and the ability to run simulations so as to predict possible future outcomes [1]. This term is also used to describe digital models of large infrastructure projects as in recent years there have been significant technological advances in the areas of modelling and simulation. The same applies to the great progress that has been made in the integrated modelling of project cost, schedule and the risks associated with these projects. This paper discusses the project risk twin process, which considers the correct application of integrated cost and schedule risk analysis with additional advanced features such as risk correlations, dependencies and linkage, event tree analysis, Poisson distributions for multiple risk occurrences, calculation of potential future delay cost (i.e., liquidated damages and penalty cost), and escalation. The project risk twin process accompanies the project throughout the planning, construction and operation phase. Key benefits of the project risk twin process are an improved ability to understand, analyse and proactively mitigating risks, enhanced foresight to avoid potential construction delays and insights that lead to seizing opportunities. This is achieved through the application of advanced modelling techniques and simulation to predict future outcomes. Demonstration of an application of the project risk twin process and the abovementioned features are presented in the case study. The model and visualisations have been created using a risk administration and analysis tool named RIAAT.

KEYWORDS:

• Project risk twin (PRT)
• RIAAT (risk administration and analysis tool)
• integrated cost and schedule analysis
• cost component structure
• system integration

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Philip Sander

Prof. Philip Sander is a recognized expert in cost and risk management. He has over 15 years consulting experience for infrastructure projects in Europe and North and South America. Philip studied civil engineering at the Technical University of Dresden (MSc) and gained his PhD at the University of Innsbruck (Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Construction Projects). He started his professional career at Grinaker LTA in South Africa. After gaining experience at Hochtief in Essen and at CPM in Stuttgart, he moved to Tyrol in 2006 to join the team of SSP BauConsult. He has also been the General Manager of SSP BauConsult since 2015. In 2009, Philip Sander and Markus Spiegl obtained ownership of RiskConsult. Since 2019, he is head of the Institute for Construction Management at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich.

Markus Spiegl

Dr. Markus Spiegl is a managing partner and a sworn and court-certified expert in the fields of costing, contracting and tendering, construction management and accounting, civil engineering in general as well as tunneling and gallery construction. Markus Spiegl studied civil engineering at the University of Innsbruck. After his diploma thesis with Prof. Seeber at the Institute of Hydraulic and Tunnel Engineering, he started his professional career in the private sector. From there, he moved to the Institute for Construction Management and Construction Economics at the University of Innsbruck to work with Univ.-Prof. Schneider and completed his doctorate there with the topic ‘An alternative concept for risk distribution and compensation regulation in the realization of infrastructure by means of Public Private Partnership under International Competitive Bidding - With a focus on the underground construction of hydropower plants’. Markus Spiegl holds all professional examinations (master builder 2001, civil engineer 2001, expert 2002). Since 2001 he is managing partner at SSP BauConsult GmbH and since 2009 additionally at RiskConsult GmbH. In addition, he is involved in several specialist working groups and interest groups and is the author of a large number of specialist articles.

Taylor Burns

Taylor Burns is a Risk Engineer and experienced Project Manager with over 10 years of demonstrated history working in the civil engineering and construction industry. Skilled in Contract Management, Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis, Cost Estimating and all aspects of Project Management from project inception to completion. Taylor studied civil engineering at the University of Technology, Sydney and has a diploma in engineering practice. After numerous engineering and project management roles with Transport for NSW and Public Works Advisory, Taylor then went to work in Europe where he joined RiskConsult working in the field of integrated cost and schedule risk analysis. Taylor later returned to Australia and is now working with nPlan in the field of machine learning informed schedule risk analysis and assurance.

John Reilly

John Reilly has worked on the management, design and construction of a multitude of projects including large, complex infrastructure programs, highways, transit systems, airports, cities, vehicle manufacturing, buildings and underground facilities. Services include program management, delivery strategies, organizational planning, contracting methods, partnering, team-building and team-alignment, disputes resolution boards, expert and peer review panels, strategic advisory panels, risk workshops, risk identification and risk response and probabilistic cost estimating (WSDOT CEVP® process). John was President of the American Underground Construction Association (1999-2001) and Chair of two International Tunneling Association Working Groups – No. 20 ‘Urban Problems – Underground Solutions’ and No. 13 ‘Direct and Indirect Benefits of Underground Structures.’ He is a Charter Member of the Disputes Resolution Board Foundation. John was awarded a 2020 Lifetime Achievement Award from the Underground Construction Association ‘for outstanding achievements in the underground design and construction industry… with significant contributions to the education, planning, design and construction of … facilities… including advances in new methods and materials and advancing the public understanding and concurrence with the beneficial uses of underground space.’