Dynamics of freight transport decarbonisation: a conceptual model

ABSTRACT

As part of the global efforts to mitigate climate change, policymakers are designing measures to reduce the carbon emissions of the freight transport system. As global agreements for decarbonisation specify strict time windows, it is important to understand the speed at which the transport system is capable of changing. Our paper proposes a causal loop diagram based on System Dynamics that qualitatively maps the system’s causal and dynamic responses to five key decarbonisation strategies. As the main contribution, this conceptual model provided a broad overview of the freight system, formed by subsystems that interact with each other through feedback loops, forming its dynamic behaviour. Through this conceptual modelling effort, we can identify the rebound effects of policies over the whole system, which could defeat the desired decarbonisation results. The model pointed out policies and feedback loops as the dynamic levers to promote freight decarbonisation and influence the system’s dynamic responses.

KEYWORDS:

• Freight transport
• decarbonisation
• low-carbon freight
• system dynamics
• causal loop diagram

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) Brazil and by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) under Grant 001. Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq).