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ABSTRACT
This paper proposes an evaluation study of the impact of mini-grid electrification projects on SDG7 (ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all). Questioning the effectiveness of mini-grid development programmes on electricity access is essential because we have observed many failed cases in which the mini-grids stopped delivering on their promises a few years after commissioning the equipment. Our approach is based on night-time light (NTL) data. The methodology is designed and tested using mini-grid projects precisely localised and documented in published papers. We compare NTL data for each project before and after commissioning. We show that in about half the projects, NTL detects significant positive changes after commissioning. We build a test of impact, which confirms the causal nature of the observed effects of mini-grid projects on progress being made in SDG7, based on a comparison between non-treated localities matched with treated localities. But the domain of validity of this conclusion has limitations, related in particular to remoteness, extreme initial energy poverty and insufficient inclusiveness. These factors should be considered in the design of mini-grid development programmes.
Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to Olivier Santoni, who managed their access to satellite data They express their gratitude to two anonymous reviewers for their excellent comments, as well as Jean-Louis Arcand, Subhes Bhattacharyya, Christopher Burger, Vianney Dequiedt, Vincent Nossek, Jörg Peters, Jean-Pierre Ponsard, Ahmed Tritah, Pascale Trompette and Jens Weinmann for useful discussions and comments at various stages. Alfred Michel Nandnaba provided excellent research assistance.
This research was supported by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche of the French government through the programme “Investissements d’avenir” (ANR-10-LABX-14-01), through the IDGM + initiative led by FERDI. Their research project at FERDI also benefitted from a research grant from ADEME, complemented by financial support from Esplorado Foundation.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1. There are also mixed solutions such as Energy Centres.
2. Mr Ismael Nakoulma, interviewed 1st December 2022.
3. Notwithstanding the fact that the latter is limited to projects with a published evaluation, possibly eliminating purely private projects.
4. CoSMMA reports evaluation results published in about 125 papers on more than 400 decentralised electrification projects. Available at https://ferdi.fr/en/indicators/data-collaborative-smart-mapping-of-mini-grid-action-cosmma
6. Other methods exist but are not suitable in our case: regression discontinuity design (RDD), and event studies relying on two-way fixed effect regressions.
7. Surface and density calculated based on data downloaded from Copernicus land service https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3939050. Distances downloaded from ARGIS.
8. One success case located in a desert area was dropped in this exercise due to afor lack of possible controls.
9. In most cases such villages are poor and backward (with zero NTL before treatment), and their absence in our test should not bias the results.
10. In CoSMMA’s definitions, we consider nano (below 1 kW1kW), pico (1–-5 kW), micro (5–-100 kW), mini (100–-1000 kW) and small (1–-10 MW).
11. The source of the distance calculation is simple geographical distance using ARGIS.
Additional information
Funding
Notes on contributors
Jean-Claude Berthelemy
Jean-Claude Berthélemy is Emeritus Professor at University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, former Director of the Sorbonne School of Economics, Corresponding Member of the Institut de France and Senior Fellow at FERDI. He has published extensively in academic journals on Development Economics over the past 40 years, investigating various research topics: economic growth, aid effectiveness development traps, development finance, human resources and sustainable development, with a geographical focus on Africa. He has developed at FERDI a research programme on SDG7 in which he has introduced the use of remote sensing in impact evaluations of electrification programmes.
Mathilde Maurel
Mathilde Maurel, who mainly works for the CNRS as a research director and teaches at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne, is also senior researcher at FERDI and was recently elected a member of the AE (Academia Europaea). Her research focuses on major economic and societal issues using advanced econometric techniques, and she has worked on a variety of subjects: the EU’s enlargement, environmental issues such as climate-induced migration, the effectiveness of China’s environmental policies, and the importance of infrastructure such as decentralised electricity in achieving the MDGs. She also attempts to explore issues surrounding the formation of norms, institutions and political behaviour. To date, her research has been published in journals such as the Journal of Comparative Economics, Public Choice, Review of World Economics, Climate Policy, The Journal of Development Studies, Applied Economics, Economic Systems, World Development.