Temperature drives variability in recent satellite-derived ice cover trends in Nebraska Sand Hill lakes

Abstract

The timing and duration of lake ice cover is a critical driver of lake ecosystem dynamics and an important indicator of climatic change. While much research has focused on lake ice dynamics at high latitudes and in north-temperate lakes, few studies have considered ice dynamics in lakes at lower latitudes. Here we use high-resolution satellite imagery to determine patterns of lake ice cover for 128 Sand Hill lakes for the period 2016 - 2023. Average ice duration was 112 days and varied between 74 and 158 days. The average dates for ice-on and ice-off were November 25^th and Match 17^th. Ice cover duration for Sand Hill lakes was long when compared to lakes at higher latitudes. October, November, December and February, March, April mean atmospheric temperatures were strong drivers of lake ice cover compared to lake-specific factors (lake area, shoreline complexity). To our knowledge, this represents the first study of lake ice cover in Nebraska Sand Hills and provides baseline data which will help determine the effect of climatic changes on lake ecosystems in the Nebraska Sand Hills.

Keywords:

• lake ice
• Nebraska Sand Hills
• climate change
• winter limnology
• remote sensing

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Data availability statement

Data and code used in this study can be requested from the first author.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors have no competing financial interests or relationships that could have influenced the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

Funding and access to satellite imagery was supplied by the NSF (OIA 2019596). DG was supported by funding from the Daugherty Water for Food Institution. Grace Campbell provided helpful comments and advice for the large-scale climate section. Comments from two anonymous reviewers greatly increased the quality of this manuscript, and we are thankful for their feedback.