Between prudence and selfishness. Pooling the polls on what Italians think of the Ukraine war

ABSTRACT

This article provides a systematic overview of what Italians think of the war in Ukraine, relying on an analysis of the polls conducted over the first 17 months of the conflict. Italians are worried about the war but the issue is not a priority. Most Italians blame Russia, but they do so to a lesser extent than do other Europeans and the assigned responsibility is affected by the question wording. Only a minority favours arms shipments to Ukraine. Survey data record a higher level of support for imposing sanctions than for sending weapons, but also a slight decline in support for sanctions over the period. Since Italians do not expect either side to win the war, they foresee that it will end with sacrifices on the part of Ukraine.

KEYWORDS:

• Public opinion
• Ukraine
• Russia
• war

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

Data are available at https://osf.io/preprints/osf/x3dv7.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/23248823.2024.2341517

Notes

1. On Italian foreign policy and Russia see e.g. Carbone (2008) or Collina (2008). For the Italian response to the Ukraine war, see Brighi and Giusti (2023).

2. See: https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2022/02/28/22G00025/sg. Three days later, the Government issued a further measure: Decree-Law No. 16 of 28 February 2022 on ‘Further Urgent Measures Concerning the Crisis in Ukraine’. Along with measures regarding the national supply of natural gas and the reception of refugees from Ukraine, the Decree provided for the supply of military vehicles, materials and equipment to the Ukrainian authorities (https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2022/02/28/22G00025/sg).

3. A wave of attention to the positions of Italian parties (especially those of Italy’s right-wing populist forces) vis-à-vis Russia was generated especially after 2014 (Galeotti 2019; Gressel 2017; Makarychev and Spencer Terry 2020).

4. The government renewed military aid to Ukraine with the passage of Decree-Law No. 200 on 21 December 2023.

5. See http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/

6. The full list of available questions can be found in Isernia et al. (2023) and they are accessible at: https://iserniap.github.io/Ukraine-War/index.html

7. The alternatives were: ‘It was a very serious act, an intolerable provocation of a sovereign state’; ‘It was a rash and wrongful act, but if it remains confined to the Donbass it is not so serious’; ‘It is an understandable move and provided it remains confined to the Donbass, it is a rightful act of protection of the Russian minority’; and ‘He [Putin] did well, as Ukraine risks becoming a Western puppet and should go back to being under the aegis of Moscow”

8. See for instance https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en?prefLang=it

9. The question is: ‘Do you agree with the sanctions against Russia, even if this involves an increase in the prices of some food products and the cost of energy?’.

10. Apparently, no survey question has asked about the possibility of a stalemate or ‘frozen conflict’, as for instance in the Korean case.

Additional information

Funding

This work has received no funding.

Notes on contributors

Pierangelo Isernia

Pierangelo Isernia is Professor of Political Science at the University of Siena, Department of Social, Political and Cognitive Sciences and since 2019 Jean Monnet Chair in Culture and International Relations. His interests focus on public opinion and foreign and security policy, anti-Americanism, European integration, deliberative theory and its applications.

Sergio Martini

Sergio Martini is Assistant Professor (RTD-A) in Political Science at the Department of Social, Political and Cognitive Sciences of the University of Siena, Italy. His interests include the study of public opinion, voting behavior, the quality of democracy and political methodology.

Claudio Cozzi-Fucile

Claudio Cozzi Fucile is a PhD student in Social Sciences and Humanities at the Department of Social, Political and Cognitive Sciences, University of Siena. His research interests focus on public opinion, political and electoral behaviour.