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Notes
1 The dramatic developments in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, which culminated with Azerbaijan successfully reclaiming the disputed region after a short military offensive, are not covered in the Regional Analysis. See the addendum to the Nagorno-Karabakh chapter for a brief analysis of these developments.
2 This was Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine, following the first invasion in February 2014.
3 See the Ukraine Country Profile for more details.
4 ‘Sabotage Acts in Russia More Than Double in 2023’, Moscow Times, 15 May 2023.
5 ‘Rebel Russian Mercenaries Turn Back Short of Moscow “to Avoid Bloodshed”’, Reuters, 24 June 2023.
6 Jakub Przetacznik, Sebastian Clapp and Angelos Delivorias, ‘Question Time: Heightening Tensions Between Armenia and Azerbaijan’, European Parliamentary Research Service, October 2022.
7 International Crisis Group, ‘The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Visual Explainer’, 1 August 2023.
8 ‘Upheaval in Central Asia: What Is Driving Change in Eurasia’s Heartland?’, in IISS, Strategic Survey 2022 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2022), p. 255.
9 Human Rights Watch, ‘Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan: Apparent War Crimes in Border Conflict’, 2 May 2023.
10 Human Rights Watch, ‘Uzbekistan: Police Abuses in Autonomous Region Protests’, 7 November 2022.
11 See, for example, Scott Reinhard, ‘Ukraine Has Reclaimed More Than Half the Territory Russia Has Taken This Year’, New York Times, 14 November 2022.
12 OHCHR, ‘Ukraine: Civilian Casualty Update 31 July 2023’, 31 July 2023.
13 UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), ‘Situation Operational Data Portal: Ukraine Refugee Situation’, updated 8 August 2023; and USA for UNHRC, ‘Ukraine Emergency’, 2023.
14 ‘World Bank Says $411bn Cost to Rebuild War-torn Ukraine’, Al-Jazeera, 23 March 2023.
15 ‘Russia–Ukraine War: List of Key Events, Day 504’, Al-Jazeera, 12 July 2023.
16 Council of Europe, ‘Council of Europe Summit Creates Register of Damage for Ukraine as First Step Towards an International Compensation Mechanism for Victims of Russian Aggression’, 17 May 2023.
17 Matthew Mpoke Bigg et al., ‘Russia Strikes Danube Port, Escalating Attacks on Ukraine Grain Routes’, New York Times, 24 July 2023.
1 The World Bank, ‘Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment’, 2023/ECA/82, 23 March 2023.
2 Benjamin Petrini, ‘The Long Aftermath of Armed Conflicts’, in IISS, The Armed Conflict Survey 2021 (Abingdon: Routledge for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2021).
3 See NATO, ‘NATO Decisions on Open-door Policy’, 3 April 2008 (updated 4 April 2008).
4 In NATO, this is Article 5; in the EU, it is Article 42.7 TEU. According to the Treaty of Lisbon (2007), EU members benefit from a mutual defence arrangement.
5 NATO, ‘Vilnius Summit Communiqué’, 11 July 2023 (updated 19 July 2023).
6 European Council, ‘European Council Meeting (29 and 30 June 2023) – Conclusions’, EUCO 7/23, 30 June 2023.
7 IISS, ‘20th Asia Security Summit, the Shangri-La Dialogue: Fourth Plenary Session, Saturday 3 June 2023: Dr Pål Jonson, Minister for Defence, Sweden’, June 2023.
8 National Recovery Council, ‘Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan’, July 2022.
1 Helene Cooper et al., ‘Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say’, New York Times, 18 August 2023; and ‘Troop Deaths, Injuries in Ukraine War Nearing 500,000 – NYT Citing US Officials’, Reuters, 18 August 2023.
2 UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, ‘Civilian Casualties in Ukraine from 24 February 2022 to 30 June 2023’, 7 July 2023; and UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, ‘Ukraine: Civilian Casualty Update’, 17 July 2023.
3 UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), ‘Situation Operational Data Portal: Ukraine Refugee Situation’, updated 8 August 2023; and USA for UNHRC, ‘Ukraine Emergency’, 2023.
4 The figure for Western military aid is as of April 2023. Hanna Arhirova, ‘With No Peace in Sight, NATO Countries Eye More Ukraine Help’, 3 April 2023. See also Paola Tamma, ‘EU Plans up to €72 Billion in Aid for Ukraine’, Politico, 14 June 2023; and Jonathan Masters and William Merrow, ‘How Much Aid Has the U.S. Sent Ukraine? Here Are Six Charts’, Council on Foreign Relations, 10 July 2023.
5 See Julian E. Barnes et al., ‘U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia’, New York Times, 5 October 2022; Natasha Bertrand, Zachary Cohen and Kylie Atwood, ‘Exclusive: Ukraine Has Cultivated Sabotage Agents Inside Russia and Is Giving Them Drones to Stage Attacks, Sources Say’, CNN, 5 June 2023; and Natasha Bertrand and Zachary Cohen, ‘US Intelligence Indicates Ukrainians May Have Launched Drone Attack on Kremlin’, CNN, 25 May 2023.
6 See ‘Russia Says Over 200,000 Drafted into Army Since Putin’s Decree’, Reuters, 4 October 2022; ‘As Putin Signs New Law on Draft, Russia Says Spring Call-up Is Running as Planned’, Reuters, 15 April 2023; and Uliana Pavlova, ‘Putin Signs Law to Mobilize Russian Citizens Convicted of Serious Crimes’, CNN, 5 November 2023.
7 ‘Russian Defense Minister Calls for Increasing Army to 1.5 Million Troops and Raising Draft Age from 18 to 21’, Meduza, 21 December 2022.
8 Reuters, ‘Russia Doubles 2023 Defense Spending Plan as War Costs Soar’, 4 August 2023.
9 Torreddo, ‘Новое сообщение Пригожина. 25000 идут на Москву’ [Prigozhin’s New Message. 25000 Go to Moscow], YouTube, 23 June 2023.
1 See Common Space, ‘Document: Full Text of the Agreement Between the Leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan’, 10 November 2020.
2 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, ‘Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan’s Remarks at the 29th OSCE Ministerial Council’, 1 December 2022.
3 RFE/RL’s Armenian Service, ‘Azerbaijan, Armenia Exchange Deadly Fire in Nagorno-Karabakh as Peace Talks Get Under Way’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 28 June 2023.
4 See Press and Information Team of EUMA, ‘EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA)’, EU External Action, 28 February 2023.
5 See Reuters Staff, ‘Armenia Seeks Bigger Russian Military Presence on Its Territory’, Reuters, 22 February 2021.
6 Manu Pubby, ‘Arming Armenia: India to Export Missiles, Rockets and Ammunition’, Economic Times, 6 October 2022; and Vakkas Dagantekin, ‘Armenia Reportedly Buys Weapons from India Worth $245M’, Anadolu Agency, 30 September 2022.
7 See Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, ‘Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan’s Remarks at the 29th OSCE Ministerial Council’.
8 ‘Армия обороны Арцаха будет выступать гарантом суверенитета Арцаха, а по переговорам формируется новая повестка – Пашинян’ [Pashinyan: The National Defence Army of Artsakh Will Act as a Guarantor of the Sovereignty of Artsakh, and a New Agenda Is Being Formed as a Result of Negotiations], ARKA News Agency, 16 November 2020.
9 ‘Russia Sends Nearly 2,000 Peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh, Defense Ministry Says’, TASS, 10 November 2020. The International Crisis Group subsequently reported a total of ‘some 4,000 Russian soldiers and emergency services staff’. See International Crisis Group, ‘Post-war Prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh’, Report no. 264, 9 June 2021, p. i.
10 ‘Вопрос выживания: 25 лет назад Россия создала военную базу в Армении’ [A Question of Endurance: Russia Established Its Military Base in Armenia 25 Years Ago], Gazeta.ru, 16 March 2020.
11 Pjotr Sauer, ‘Nagorno-Karabakh’s Breakaway Government Says It Will Dissolve Itself’, Guardian, 28 September 2023.
12 Associated Press, ‘Azerbaijan Announces an “Anti-Terrorist Operation” Targeting Armenian Positions in Nagorno-Karabakh’, VOA, 19 September 2023.
13 Author’s sources.
14 Avet Demourian, ‘Azerbaijan Arrests the Former Head of Separatist Government After Recapturing Nagorno-Karabakh’, AP News, 27 September 2023.
15 George Wright, ‘Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia Says 100,000 Refugees Flee Region’, BBC News, 30 September 2023.
16 Lenta, ‘Ostanki pogibshix pri vzryve v Nagornom Karabakhe vyevezut v Armeniyu’ [The Bodies of Those Killed in the Explosion in Nagorno-Karabakh Are Taken to Armenia], 29 September 2023.
17 Agence France-Presse, ‘Azerbaijan Says Soldier Killed by Sniper on Armenian Border’, Barron’s, 30 September 2023.