Uncertainty, stock and commodity prices during the Ukraine-Russia war

References

• Abakah, E. J. A., D. Adeabah, A. K. Tiwari, and M. Abdullah. 2023. “Effect of Russia–Ukraine war sentiment on blockchain and FinTech stocks.” International Review of Financial Analysis 90: 102948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102948
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Abay, K., C. Breisinger, J. Glauber, S. Kurdi, D. Laborde, and K. Siddig. 2023. “The Russia-Ukraine war: Implications for global and regional food security and potential policy responses.” Global Food Security 36: 100675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100675
   Google Scholar
• Ahmed, S., M. M. Hasan, and M. R. Kamal. 2023. “Russia–Ukraine crisis: The effects on the European stock market.” European Financial Management 29 (4): 1078–1118. https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.12386
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Al-Thaqeb, S., and B. Algharabali. 2019. “Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review.” The Journal of Economic Asymmetries 20: e00133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00133
   Google Scholar
• Arouri, M., C. Estay, C. Rault, and D. Roubaud. 2016. “Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US.” Finance Research Letters 18: 136–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2016.04.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baker, S., N. Bloom, and S. Davis. 2016. “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4): 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bank of England. 2022. Monetary and financial stability and the invasion of Ukraine − speech by Jon Cunliffe.
   Google Scholar
• Bekaert, G., E. Engstrom, and Y. Xing. 2009. “Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices.” Journal of Financial Economics 91 (1): 59–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2008.01.005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boubaker, S., J. Goodell, D. Pandey, and V. Kumari. 2022. “Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine.” Finance Research Letters 48: 102934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102934
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Boungou, W., and A. Yatié. 2022. “The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns.” Economics Letters 15: 110516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110516
   Google Scholar
• Brogaard, J., L. Dai, P. T. Ngo, and B. Zhang. 2020. “Global political uncertainty and asset prices.” The Review of Financial Studies 33 (4): 1737–1780. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz087
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brogaard, J., and A. Detzel. 2015. “The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty.” Management Science 61 (1): 3–18. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2044
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Caldara, D., S. Conlisk, M. Iacoviello, and M. Penn. 2022. The Effect of the War in Ukraine on Global Activity and Inflation. Federal Reserve Notes.
   Google Scholar
• Chen, S., A. Bouteska, T. Sharif, and M. Abedin. 2023. “The Russia–Ukraine war and energy market volatility: A novel application of the volatility ratio in the context of natural gas.” Resources Policy 85, Part A, 103792.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Demir, E., and O. Ersan. 2018. “The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock returns of Turkish tourism companies.” Current Issues in Tourism 21 (8): 847–855. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1217195
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fang, Y., and Z. Shao. 2022. “The Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility risk of commodity markets.” Finance Research Letters 50: 103264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103264
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• FAO. 2022. The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the war in Ukraine. Information Note.
   Google Scholar
• Gong, X., C. Fu, Q. Huang, and M. Lin. 2022. “International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market.” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 81 (C): 101683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101683.
   Google Scholar
• Granát, M., K. Lehmann, O. Nagy, and G. Neszveda. 2023. “Expect the unexpected: Did the equity markets anticipate the Russo-Ukrainian war?” Finance Research Letters 58: 104301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104301
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huiwen, Z., and L. Sun. 2012. The Influence of Investor Sentiment on Stock Return and Its Volatility Under Different Market States. Fifth International Conference of Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering BIFE, Lanzhou, 18–21 August 2012, pp. 337–341.
   Google Scholar
• Karabulut, G., M. H. Bilgin, and A. C. Doker. 2020. “The Relationship Between Commodity Prices and World Trade Uncertainty.” Economic Analysis and Policy 66: 276–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.05.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knight, F. H. 1921. Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Boston, MA: Hart, Schaffner & Marx, Houghton Mifflin Company.
   Google Scholar
• Krishnan, K. M., and R. Satish. 2016. “Investors Sentiments to Mergers Announcement Stock Market Reaction.” International Journal of Applied Engineering Research 11: 1266–1272.
   Google Scholar
• Liadze, I., C. Macchiarelli, P. Mortimer-Lee, and S. Juanino. 2022. “The Economic Costs of the Russia- Ukraine Conflict.” National Institute of Economic and Social Research 32.
   Google Scholar
• Liadze, I., C. Macchiarelli, P. Mortimer-Lee, and P. Sanchez Juanino. 2023. “Economic costs of the Russia-Ukraine war.” The World Economy 46 (4): 874–886. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13336.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ling, D. C., A. Naranjo, and B. Scheick. 2014. “Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns.” Real Estate Economics 42 (3): 531–577. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12037.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, L., and T. Zhang. 2015. “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility.” Finance Research Letters 15: 99–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2015.08.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lo, G.-D., I. Marcelin, T. Bassène, and B. Sène. 2022. “The Russo-Ukrainian war and Financial Markets: The Role of Dependence on Russian Commodities.” Finance Research Letters 50: 103194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103194.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ngo, V. M., T. L. D. Huynh, P. V. Nguyen, and H. H. Nguyen. 2022. “Public sentiment towards economic sanctions in the Russia–Ukraine war.” Scottish Journal of Political Economy 69 (5): 564–573. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12331.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Noguera-Santaella, J. 2016. “Geopolitics and the oil Price.” Economic Modelling 52: 301–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.018.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• OECD. 2022. “The Impacts and Policy Implications of Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine on Agricultural Markets.” OECD Policy Responses on the Impacts of the War in Ukraine.
   Google Scholar
• Pandey, K., V. Kumari, A. Palma, and J. Goodell. 2023. “Are Markets in Happier Countries Less Affected by Tragic Events? Evidence from Market Reaction to the Israel-Hamas Conflict.” Finance Research Letters 60: 104893. forthcoming.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pástor, L., and P. Veronesi. 2012. “Uncertainty About Government Policy and Stock Prices.” The Journal of Finance 67 (4): 1219–1264. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01746.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Quaye, I., Y. Mu, B. Abudu, and R. Agyare. 2016. “Review of Stock Markets’ Reaction to New Events: Evidence from Brexit.” Journal of Financial Risk Management 5 (04): 281–314. https://doi.org/10.4236/jfrm.2016.54025.
   Google Scholar
• Rehman, M. U. 2013. “Investor’s Sentiments and Stock Market Volatility: An Empirical Evidence from Emerging Stock Market.” Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences 7: 80–90.
   Google Scholar
• Rose, A., Z. Chen, and D. Wei. 2023. “The Economic Impacts of Russia–Ukraine War Export Disruptions of Grain Commodities.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 45 (2): 645–665. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13351.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ruan, Q., H. Yang, D. Lv, and S. Zhang. 2018. “Cross-correlations Between Individual Investor Sentiment and Chinese Stock Market Return: New Perspective Based on MF-DCCA.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 503: 243–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.076.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shen, L., and Y. Hong. 2023. “Can Geopolitical Risks Excite Germany Economic Policy Uncertainty: Rethinking in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict.” Finance Research Letters 51: 103420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103420.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Smales, A. 2020. “Examining the Relationship Between Policy Uncertainty and Market Uncertainty Across the G7.” International Review of Financial Analysis 71: 101540. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101540.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sokhanvar, A., and E. Bouri. 2023. “Commodity Price Shocks Related to the War in Ukraine and Exchange Rates of Commodity Exporters and Importers.” Borsa Istanbul Review 23 (1): 44–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.09.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Su, Z., T. Fang, and L. Yin. 2019. “Understanding Stock Market Volatility: What is the Role of U.S. Uncertainty?” The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 48: 582–590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.07.014.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tong, E. 2024. “Repercussions of the Russia–Ukraine war.” International Review of Economics & Finance 89: 366–390. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.07.064.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Umar, Z., O. Polat, S.-Y. Choi, and T. Teplova. 2022. “The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Connectedness of Financial Markets.” Finance Research Letters 48: 102976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102976.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, H., and A. L. Boatwright. 2019. “Political Uncertainty and Financial Market Reactions: A new Test.” International Economics 160: 14–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.07.004.
   Google Scholar
• Wang, Y. M., C. A. Li, and C. F. Lin. 2009. “The Impact of Investor Sentiment on the Futures Market: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange.” International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 29: 134–151.
   Google Scholar
• World Bank. 2022. Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2022: The Impact of the war in Ukraine on Commodity Markets.
   Google Scholar
• World Bank. 2023. Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2023: Under the Shadow of Geopolitical Risks.
   Google Scholar
• Yin, L., and L. Han. 2014. “Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Does it Matter for Commodity Prices?” Applied Economics Letters 21 (10): 711–716. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2014.887181.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang, Z., Y. Zhang, D. Shen, and W. Zhang. 2018. “The Dynamic Cross-Correlations Between Mass Media News, New Media News, and Stock Returns.” Complexity, 2018. Scopus.
   Google Scholar
• Zheng, Y. 2015. “The Linkage Between Aggregate Investor Sentiment and Metal Futures Returns: A Nonlinear Approach.” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 58: 128–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2015.02.008.
   Google Scholar
• Zhou, H., and X. Lu. 2023. “Investor Attention on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from China.” Finance Research Letters 52: 103526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103526.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar