Bark beetle damage in Norwegian forests: a study of model suitability and projected impact under climate change

References

• Abdullah H, Darvishzadeh R, Skidmore AK, Groen TA, Heurich M. 2018. European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus, L.) green attack affects foliar reflectance and biochemical properties. Int J Appl Earth Observ Geoinf. 64(September 2017):199–209. doi:10.1016/j.jag.2017.09.009.
   Google Scholar
• Annila E, Petäistö R-L.. 1978. Insect attack on windthrown trees after the December 1975 storm in western Finland. Communicationes Instituti Forestalis Fenniae. 94 :1–24.
   Google Scholar
• Baier P, Pennerstorfer J, Schopf A. 2007. PHENIPS - a comprehensive phenology model of Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytinae) as a tool for hazard rating of bark beetle infestation. Forest Ecol Manage. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2007.05.020.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bakke A. 1989. The recent Ips typographus outbreak in Norway : experiences from a control program author (s): Alf Bakke published by : Wiley on behalf of Nordic Society Oikos stable. Holarctic Ecol. 12(4):515–519. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3682063
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bakke SJ, Ionita M, Tallaksen LM. 2020. The 2018 northern European hydrological drought and its drivers in a historical perspective. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. 24(11):5621–5653. doi:10.5194/hess-24-5621-2020.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Berec L, Doležal P, Hais M. 2013. Population dynamics of Ips typographus in the Bohemian forest (Czech republic): validation of the phenology model PHENIPS and impacts of climate change. Forest Ecol Manage. 292:1–9. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2012.12.018.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beylich AA. 2021. Landscapes and landforms of Norway. In: World geomorphological landscapes. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-52563-7.
   Google Scholar
• Breidenbach J, McRoberts RE, Alberdi I, Antón-Fernández C, Tomppo E. 2021. A century of national forest inventories – informing past, present and future decisions. Forest Ecosyst. 8(1). doi:10.1186/s40663-021-00315-x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Christiansen E, Bakke A. 1988. The spruce bark beetle of Eurasia. Dyn Forest Insect Popul. 479–503. doi:10.1007/978-1-4899-0789-9_23.
   Google Scholar
• Dobor L, Hlásny T, Rammer W, Zimová S, Barka I, Seidl R. 2020. Is salvage logging effectively dampening bark beetle outbreaks and preserving forest carbon stocks? J Appl Ecol. 57(1):67–76. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13518.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fernandez-Carrillo A, Patočka Z, Dobrovolný L, Franco-Nieto A, Revilla-Romero B. 2020. Monitoring bark beetle forest damage in central Europe. A remote sensing approach validated with field data. Remote Sens (Basel). 12(21):1–19. doi:10.3390/rs12213634.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hlásny T, König L, Krokene P, Lindner M, Montagné-Huck C, Müller J, Qin H, Raffa KF, Schelhaas MJ, Svoboda M, et al. 2021a. Bark beetle outbreaks in Europe: state of knowledge and ways forward for management. Curr For Rep. 7(3):138–165. doi:10.1007/s40725-021-00142-x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hlásny T, Krokene P, Liebhold A, Montagné-Huck C, Müller J, Qin H, Raffa K, Schelhaas M-J, Seidl R, Svoboda M, Viiri H. 2019. Living with bark beetles: impacts, outlook and management options. In: From science to policy (Vol. 8, Issue April). European Forest Institute. doi:10.36333/fs08.
   Google Scholar
• Hlásny T, Zimová S, Merganičová K, Štěpánek P, Modlinger R, Turčáni M. 2021b. Devastating outbreak of bark beetles in the Czech Republic: drivers, impacts, and management implications. Forest Ecol Manage. 490(March). doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119075.
   Google Scholar
• Honkaniemi J, Ojansuu R, Kasanen R, Heliövaara K. 2018. Interaction of disturbance agents on Norway spruce : A mechanistic model of bark beetle dynamics integrated in simulation framework WINDROT. Ecol Model. 388(December 2017):45–60. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.09.014.
   Google Scholar
• Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B, Alias A, Christensen OB, Bouwer LM, Braun A, Colette A, Déqué M, Georgievski G, et al. 2014. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional Environ Change. 14(2):563–578. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jandl R. 2020. Climate-induced challenges of Norway spruce in Northern Austria. Trees Forests People. 1(March):100008. doi:10.1016/j.tfp.2020.100008.
   Google Scholar
• Jeger M, Bragard C, Caffier D, Candresse T, Chatzivassiliou E, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Gilioli G, Jaques Miret JA, MacLeod A, et al. 2017. Pest categorisation of Ips typographus. EFSA J. 15:3. doi:10.2903/j.efsa.2017.4881.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jönsson AM, Appelberg G, Harding S, Bärring L. 2009. Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. Global Change Biol. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01742.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jönsson AM, Harding S, Krokene P, Lange H, Lindelöw Å, Økland B, Ravn HP, Schroeder LM. 2011. Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause. Clim Change. 109(3–4):695–718. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0038-4.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Komonen A, Schroeder LM, Weslien J. 2011. Ips typographus population development after a severe storm in a nature reserve in southern Sweden. J Appl Entomol. 135(1–2):132–141. doi:10.1111/j.1439-0418.2010.01520.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kosunen M, Peltoniemi K, Pennanen T, Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa P, Adamczyk B, Fritze H, Zhou X, Starr M. 2020. Storm and Ips typographus disturbance effects on carbon stocks, humus layer carbon fractions and microbial community composition in boreal Picea abies stands. Soil Biol Biochem. 148(December 2019). doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2020.107853.
   Google Scholar
• Landbruksdirektoratet. 2021. Faglig beredskapsplan for stor granbarkbille. https://www.landbruksdirektoratet.no/nb/skogbruk/barkbilleberedskap/faglig-beredskapsplan-for-stor-granbarkbille.
   Google Scholar
• Lange H, Økland B, Krokene P. 2006. Thresholds in the life cycle of the spruce bark beetle under climate change. Interjournal Complex Syst. 1648:1–10.
   Google Scholar
• Lausch A, Heurich M, Fahse L. 2013. Spatio-temporal infestation patterns of Ips typographus (L.) in the Bavarian Forest National Park, Germany. Ecol Indicators. 31:73–81. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.07.026.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lexer MJ, Hönninger K. 2001. A modified 3D-patch model for spatially explicit simulation of vegetation composition in heterogeneous landscapes. Forest Ecol Manage. 144:43–65. doi:10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00386-8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lindman L, Ranius T, Schroeder M. 2023. Regional climate affects habitat preferences and thermal sums required for development of the Eurasian spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. Forest Ecol Manage. 544(June):121216. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121216.
   Google Scholar
• Marini L, Økland B, Jönsson AM, Bentz B, Carroll A, Forster B, Grégoire JC, Hurling R, Nageleisen LM, Netherer S, et al. 2017. Climate drivers of bark beetle outbreak dynamics in Norway spruce forests. Ecography. 40(12):1426–1435. doi:10.1111/ecog.02769.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Meteorologisk Institutt. 2022. Tørr og rekordmild mars. https://kommunikasjon.ntb.no/pressemelding/torr-og-rekordmild-mars?publisherId=17846853&releaseId=17930160&lang=no.
   Google Scholar
• Moen A. 1999. Vegetation: national Atlas of Norway. Hønefoss, Norway: Norwegian Mapping Authority.
   Google Scholar
• Müller M, Olsson PO, Eklundh L, Jamali S, Ardö J. 2022. Features predisposing forest to bark beetle outbreaks and their dynamics during drought. Forest Ecol Manage. 523(September). doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120480.
   Google Scholar
• Netherer S, Nopp-Mayr U. 2005. Predisposition assessment systems (PAS) as supportive tools in forest management - rating of site and stand-related hazards of bark beetle infestation in the High Tatra Mountains as an example for system application and verification. Forest Ecol Manage. 207(1-2 SPEC. ISS.):99–107. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2004.10.020.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nordkvist M, Eggers J, Fustel TLA, Klapwijk MJ. 2023. Development and implementation of a spruce bark beetle susceptibility index: a framework to compare bark beetle susceptibility on stand level. Trees, Forests People. 11. doi:10.1016/j.tfp.2022.100364.
   Google Scholar
• Nowakowska JA, Hsiang T, Patynek P, Stereńczak K, Olejarski I, Oszako T. 2020. Health assessment and genetic structure of monumental Norway spruce trees during a bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) outbreak in the Bialowieza Forest District, Poland. Forests. 11(6):1–19. doi:10.3390/f11060647.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Økland B, Krokene P, Beachell AM. 2021. Granbarkbillen. Registrering av bestandsstørrelsene i 2021. In NIBIO Rapport (Vol. 7, Issue 173).
   Google Scholar
• R Core Team. (2023). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.<https://www.R-project.org/>.
   Google Scholar
• Romeiro JMN, Eid T, Antón-Fernández C, Kangas A, Trømborg E. 2022. Natural disturbances risks in European Boreal and Temperate forests and their links to climate change – A review of modelling approaches. Forest Ecol Manage. 509(December 2021). doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120071.
   Google Scholar
• RStudio Team. 2022. RStudio: integrated development environment for R. Boston, MA: RStudio, PBC. http://www.rstudio.com/
   Google Scholar
• Schelhaas MJ, Nabuurs GJ, Schuck A. 2003. Natural disturbances in the European forests in the 19th and 20th centuries. Global Change Biol. 9(11):1620–1633. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00684.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schlyter P, Stjernquist I, Bärring L, Jönsson AM, Nilsson C. 2006. Assessment of the impacts of climate change and weather extremes on boreal forests in Northern Europe, focusing on Norway spruce. Clim Res. doi:10.3354/cr031075.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schowalter TD. 2012. Ecology and management of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) in southern pine forests. J Integr Pest Manage. 3(2):1–7. doi:10.1603/IPM11025.
   Google Scholar
• Schroeder M, Fritscher D. 2020. Granbarkborrens förökningsframgång i dödade träd under sommaren 2020 i sydöstra Småland, Värmland och Uppland/Västmanland.
   Google Scholar
• Seidl R, Baier P, Rammer W, Schopf A, Lexer MJ. 2007. Modelling tree mortality by bark beetle infestation in Norway spruce forests. Ecol Model. 206(3–4):383–399. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.04.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seidl R, Lexer MJ, Jäger D, Hönninger K. 2005. Evaluating the accuracy and generality of a hybrid patch model. Tree Physiol. 25(7):939–951. doi:10.1093/treephys/25.7.939.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seidl R, Rammer W. 2017. Climate change amplifies the interactions between wind and bark beetle disturbances in forest landscapes. Landscape Ecol. 32(7):1485–1498. doi:10.1007/s10980-016-0396-4.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seidl R, Schelhaas MJ, Lindner M, Lexer MJ. 2009. Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies. Regional Environ Change. 9(2):101–119. doi:10.1007/s10113-008-0068-2.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Statistisches Bundesamt. 2021. Forest damage: logging of timber damaged by insect infestation grew more than tenfold within five years. Press Release 050. https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2021/08/PE21_N050_41.html.
   Google Scholar
• Stereńczak K, Mielcarek M, Modzelewska A, Kraszewski B, Fassnacht FE, Hilszczański J. 2019. Intra-annual Ips typographus outbreak monitoring using a multi-temporal GIS analysis based on hyperspectral and ALS data in the Białowieża Forests. Forest Ecol Manage. 105–116. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.064.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• VÚLHM. 2023. The bark beetle calamity is slowly receding for the second year. https://www.vulhm.cz/en/the-bark-beetle-calamity-is-slowly-receding-for-the-second-year/.
   Google Scholar
• Wermelinger B. 2004. Ecology and management of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus - a review of recent research. Forest Ecol Manage. 202(1–3):67–82. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2004.07.018.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wermelinger B, Seifert M. 1998. Analysis of the temperature dependent development of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytidae). J Appl Entomol. 122(4):185–191. doi:10.1111/j.1439-0418.1998.tb01482.x.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wong WK, Haddeland I, Lawrence D, Beldring S. 2016. Gridded 1 ( 1 km climate and hydrological projections for Norway. 26.
   Google Scholar
• Worrell R. 1983. Damage by the spruce bark beetle in South Norway 1970-80: A survey, and factors affecting its occurrence. In Meddelelser fra Norsk Institutt for Skogforskning (Norway). http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=NO8300455.
   Google Scholar
• Zimová S, Dobor L, Hlásny T, Rammer W, Seidl R. 2020. Reducing rotation age to address increasing disturbances in Central Europe: potential and limitations. Forest Ecol Manage. 475(July):118408. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118408.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar