Prediction of extreme climate on the Tibetan Plateau based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

References

• Cai Y, Li DL, Tang MC, Bai C. 2003. Decadal temperature changes over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in recent 50 years. Plateau Meteorol. 22(5):464–470. (in Chinese).
   Google Scholar
• Chen H, Zhu Q, Peng C, Wu N, Wang Y, Fang X, Gao Y, Zhu D, Yang G, Tian J, et al. 2013. The impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau. Glob Chang Biol. 19(10):2940–2955. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12277.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen HJ, Yang JP, Ding YJ. 2021. Evaluation of extreme weather indices over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in NEX-GDDP. Plateau Meteorology. 40(5):977–990. (in Chinese). doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00104.
   Google Scholar
• Chen HP, Sun JQ, Li HX. 2017. Future changes in precipitation extremes over China using the NEX-GDDP high-resolution daily downscaled data-set. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett. 10(6):403–410. doi: 10.1080/16742834.2017.1367625.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen HP, Sun JQ. 2015. Assessing model performance of climate extremes in China: an intercomparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3. Clim Change. 129(1–2):197–211. doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1319-5.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen JH, Wang YF, Sun J, Liang EY, Shen MG, Yang B, Jia XH, Zhang JX. 2021. Precipitation dominants synergies and trade-offs among ecosystem services across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Global Ecol Conserv. 32:e01886. doi: 10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01886.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen R, Li HY, Wang XJ, Gou XH, Yang MX, Wan GN. 2022. Surface air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau: historical evaluation and future projection based on CMIP6 models. Geosci Front. 13(6):101452. doi: 10.1016/j.gsf.2022.101452.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ciavarella A, Stott P, Lowe J. 2017. Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes. Nat Clim Change. 7(5):326–330. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3259.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Guo B, Kong WH, Jiang L, Fan YW. 2018. Analysis of spatial and temporal changes and its driving mechanism of ecological vulnerability of alpine ecosystem in Qinghai Tibet Plateau. Ecol Sci. 37(3):96–106. (in Chinese). doi: 10.14108/j.cnki.1008-8873.2018.03.013.
   Google Scholar
• Guo DL, Wang HJ. 2012. The significant climate warming in the northern Tibetan Plateau and its possible causes. Int J Climatol. 32(12):1775–1781. doi: 10.1002/joc.2388.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huang DQ, Yan PW, Zhu J, Zhang YC, Kuang XY, Cheng J. 2018. Uncertainty of global summer precipitation in the CMIP5 models: a comparison between high-resolution and low-resolution models. Theor Appl Climatol. 132(1–2):55–69. doi: 10.1007/s00704-017-2078-9.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Huang DQ, Zhu J, Zhang YC, Huang AN. 2013. Uncertainties on the simulated summer precipitation over Eastern China from the CMIP5 models. J Geophys Res: Atmos. 118(16):9035–9047. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50695.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL, editors]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.
   Google Scholar
• IPCC. 2013. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Stocker TF,Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM, editors]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1535 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Karl TR, Nicholls N, Ghazi A. 1999. Clivar/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes workshop summary. Clim Change. 42(1):3–7. doi: 10.1023/A:1005491526870.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kendall MG. 1948. Rank correlation methods. London: Charles Griffin.
   Google Scholar
• Li L, Zhu XD, Qin NS, Wang ZY, Wang QC, Zhou LS. 2003. Study on temperature variations and its anomaly patterns over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Plateau Meteorol. 22(5):524–530. (in Chinese).
   Google Scholar
• Li XY, Long D, Scanlon BR, Mann ME, Li XD, Tian FQ, Sun ZL, Wang GQ. 2022. Climate change threatens terrestrial water storage over the Tibetan Plateau. Nat Clim Chang. 12(9):801–807. doi: 10.1038/s41558-022-01443-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Li YC, Li ZX, Zhang XP, Gui, JXJ. 2022. Vegetation variations and its driving factors in the transition zone between Tibetan Plateau and arid region. Ecol Indic. 141:109101. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109101.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Li YJ, Ye T, Liu WH, Gao Y. 2018. Linking livestock snow disaster mortality and environmental stressors in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: quantification based on generalized additive models. Sci Total Environ. 625:87–95. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.230.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu XD, Chen BD. 2000. Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. Int J Climatol. 20(14):1729–1742. doi: 10.1002/1097-0088(20001130)20:14 < 1729::AID-JOC556 > 3.0.CO;2-Y.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu ZC, Yang MX, Wan GN, Wang XJ. 2017. The spatial and temporal variation of temperature in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau during 1971–2015. Atmosphere. 8(11):214. doi: 10.3390/atmos8110214.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mann HB. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica. 13(3):245–259. doi: 10.2307/1907187.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Maxwell SL, Butt N, Maron M, McAlpine CA, Chapman S, Ullmann A, Segan DB, Watson JE. 2019. Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events. Divers Distrib. 25(4):613–625. doi: 10.1111/ddi.12878.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. Vol. 17. p. 179–183.
   Google Scholar
• Miles E, McCarthy M, Dehecq A, Kneib M, Fugger S, Pellicciotti F. 2021. Health and sustainability of glaciers in High Mountain Asia. Nat Commun. 12(1):2868. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23073-4.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nashwan MS, Shahid S. 2020. A novel framework for selecting general circulation models based on the spatial patterns of climate. Int J Climatol. 40(10):4422–4443. doi: 10.1002/joc.6465.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• O'Neill BC, Tebaldi C, van Vuuren DP, Eyring V, Friedlingstein P, Hurtt G, Knutti R, Kriegler E, Lamarque J-F, Lowe J, et al. 2016. The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci Model Dev. 9(9):3461–3482. 2016. doi: 10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Park T, Hashimoto H, Wang WL, Thrasher B, Michaelis AR, Lee T, Brosnan IG, Nemani RR. 2023. What does global land climate look like at 2 °C warming? Earth’s Future. 11(5):e2022EF003330. doi: 10.1029/2022EF003330.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pepin N, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Baraer M, Caceres EB, Forsythe N, Fowler H, Greenwood G, Hashmi MZ, Liu XD, et al. 2015. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nat Clim Change. 5(5):424–430. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2563.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Perkins SE, Alexander LV. 2013. On the measurement of heat waves. J Clim. 26(13):4500–4517. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Peterson T, Folland C, Gruza G, Hogg W, Mokssit A, Plummer N. 2001. Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization.
   Google Scholar
• Ran YH, Cheng GD, Dong YH, Hjort J, Lovecraft AL, Kang SC, Tan MB, Li X. 2022. Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole. Commun Earth Environ. 3(1):238. doi: 10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6.
   Google Scholar
• Ran YH, Li X, Cheng GD. 2018. Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Cryosphere. 12(2):595–608. doi: 10.5194/tc-12-595-2018.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sen PK. 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J Am Stat Assoc. 63(324):1379–1389. doi: 10.2307/2285891.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Seneviratne S, Nicholls N, Easterling D, Goodess C, Kanae S, Kossin J, Luo YL, Marengo J, McInnes K, Rahimi M. 2012. Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Field, CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K ,Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM, editors. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. p. 109–230.
   Google Scholar
• Shadmani M, Marofi S, Roknian M. 2012. Trend analysis in reference evapotranspiration using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests in arid regions of Iran. Water Resour Manage. 26(1):211–224. doi: 10.1007/s11269-011-9913-z.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Sun J, Liang EY, Barrio IC, Chen J, Wang JN, Fu BJ. 2021. Fences undermine biodiversity targets. Science. 374(6565):269–269. doi: 10.1126/science.abm3642.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Theil H. 1950. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis. Indagationes Math. 12(85):173. doi: 10.1007/978-94-011-2546-8_20.
   Google Scholar
• Thrasher B, Wang WL, Michaelis A, Melton F, Lee T, Nemani R. 2022. NASA global daily downscaled projections, CMIP6. Sci Data. 9(1):262. doi: 10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ukkola AM, De Kauwe MG, Roderick ML, Abramowitz G, Pitman AJ. 2020. Robust future changes in meteorological drought in CMIP6 projections despite uncertainty in precipitation. Geophys Res Lett. 47(11):e2020GL087820. doi: 10.1029/2020GL087820.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI. 2010. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Clim. 23(7):1696–1718. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang X, Yang JW, Xiong JN, Shen GY, Yong ZW, Sun HZ, He W, Luo SY, Cui XJ. 2022. Investigating the impact of the spatiotemporal bias correction of precipitation in CMIP6 climate models on drought assessments. Remote Sensing. 14(23):6172. doi: 10.3390/rs14236172.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang XG, Li TX, Ikhumhen HO, M. Sá R. 2022. Spatio-temporal variability and persistence of PM2.5 concentrations in China using trend analysis methods and Hurst exponent. Atmos Pollut Res. 13(1):101274. doi: 10.1016/j.apr.2021.101274.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang XJ, Pang GJ, Yang MX, Zhao GH. 2017. Evaluation of climate on the Tibetan Plateau using ERA-Interim reanalysis and gridded observations during the period 1979–2012. Quat Int. 444:76–86. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2016.12.041.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang ZY, Song W, Yin LC. 2022. Responses in ecosystem services to projected land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecol Indic. 142:109228. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109228.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• WMO. 2012. Standardized precipitation index user guide. (M. Svoboda, M. Hayes and D. Wood). Geneva: World Meteorological Organization, (WMO-No. 1090).
   Google Scholar
• Wu F, Jiao DL, Yang XL, Cui ZY, Zhang HS, Wang YH. 2023. Evaluation of NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 in simulation performance and drought capture utility over China – based on DISO. Hydrol Res. 54(5):703–721. doi: 10.2166/nh.2023.140.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Xu YM, Knudby A, Ho HC, Shen Y, Liu YH. 2017. Warming over the Tibetan Plateau in the last 55 years based on area-weighted average temperature. Reg Environ Change. 17(8):2339–2347. doi: 10.1007/s10113-017-1163-z.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yang T, Hao XB, Shao QX, Xu CY, Zhao CY, Chen X, Wang WG. 2012. Multi-model ensemble projections in temperature and precipitation extremes of the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century. Global Planet Change. 80-81:1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.08.006.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yang Y, Hu Z, Lu F, Cai Y, Yu H, Guo R, Fu C, Fan W, Wu D. 2022. Progress of recent 60 years’ climate change and its environmental impacts on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Plateau Meteorol. 41:1–10. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2021.00117.
   Google Scholar
• Yao TD, Bolch T, Chen DL, Gao J, Immerzeel W, Piao SL, Su FG, Thompson L, Wada Y, Wang L, et al. 2022. The imbalance of the Asian water tower. Nat Rev Earth Environ. 3(10):618–632. doi: 10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4.
   Google Scholar
• Ye T, Liu WH, Chen S, Chen DL, Shi PJ, Wang AH, Li YJ. 2022. Reducing livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau due to warming and socioeconomic development. Sci Total Environ. 813:151869. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151869.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• You QL, Wu FY, Shen LC, Pepin N, Jiang ZH, Kang SC. 2020. Tibetan Plateau amplification of climate extremes under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C. Global Planet Change. 192:103261. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103261.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• You QL, Zhang YQ, Xie XY, Wu FY. 2019. Robust elevation dependency warming over the Tibetan Plateau under global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Clim Dyn. 53(3–4):2047–2060. doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04775-4.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yuan TG, Chen SY, Wang L, Yang YX, Bi HR, Zhang XR, Zhang Y. 2020. Impacts of two East Asian atmospheric circulation modes on black carbon aerosol over the Tibetan Plateau in winter. J Geophys Res: Atmos. 125(12):e2020JD032458. doi: 10.1029/2020JD032458.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang GF, Nan ZT, Hu N, Yin ZY, Zhao L, Cheng GD, Mu CC. 2022. Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost at risk in the late 21st century. Earth’s Future. 10(6):e2022EF002652. doi: 10.1029/2022EF002652.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang XB, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW. 2011. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change. 2(6):851–870. doi: 10.1002/wcc.147.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang XB, Hegerl G, Zwiers FW, Kenyon J. 2005. Avoiding inhomogeneity in percentile-based indices of temperature extremes. J Clim. 18(11):1641–1651. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3366.1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang Y, Duan KQ, Shi PH. 2022. Analysis of the 0 °C level height variation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in summer from 1979 to 2100. J Glaciol Geocryol. 44(1):34–45. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2022.0018.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang Y, Li QZ, Ge Y, Du X, Wang HY. 2022. Growing prevalence of heat over cold extremes with overall milder extremes and multiple successive events. Commun Earth Environ. 3(1):73. doi: 10.1038/s43247-022-00404-x.
   Google Scholar
• Zhang YQ, You QL, Ullah S, Chen CC, Shen LC, Liu Z. 2023. Substantial increase in abrupt shifts between drought and flood events in China based on observations and model simulations. Sci Total Environ. 876:162822. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162822.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar