A methodological approach for mapping and analysing cascading effects of flooding events

References

• Abdalla, R., Tao, C. V., Cheng, Q., & Li, J. (2007). A network-centric modeling approach for infrastructure interdependency. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 73(6), 681–690. https://doi.org/10.14358/PERS.73.6.681
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Andersson, E., & Carlström, D. (2020). Applicering och utvärdering av en konsekvensanalysmetod för beroenden [Applicating and evaluating a method for assessing cascading effects]. [Thesis (MSc)]. Lund University.
   Google Scholar
• Armenakis, C., & Nirupama, N. (2013). Estimating spatial disaster risk in urban environments. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 4(4), 289–298. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2013.818066
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arvidsson, B., Johansson, J., & Guldåker, N. (2021). Critical infrastructure, geographical information science and risk governance: A systematic cross-field review. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 213, 107741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107741
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Arvidsson, B., Johansson, J., Hassel, H., & Cedergren, A. (2015). Investigation method for cascading effects between critical infrastructures. In Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems: ESREL 2015, 7–10 September 2015 Zürich, Switzerland. London: CRC Press, 3399-3407. https://doi.org/10.1201/b19094
   Google Scholar
• Barker, K., & Santos, J. R. (2010). Measuring the efficacy of inventory with a dynamic input-output model. International Journal of Production Economics, 126(1), 130–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2009.08.011
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Basu, N., Pryor, R., & Quint, T. (1998). ASPEN: A microsimulation model of the economy. Computational Economics, 12(3), 223–241. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008691115079
   Google Scholar
• Bekkers, V., & Thaens, M. (2005). Interconnected networks and the governance of risk and trust. Information Polity, 10(1–2), 37–48. https://doi.org/10.3233/IP-2005-0065
   Google Scholar
• Benali, A., Ervilha, A. R., Sá, A. C. L., Fernandes, P. M., Pinto, R. M. S., Trigo, R. M., & Pereira, J. M. C. (2016). Deciphering the impact of uncertainty on the accuracy of large wildfire spread simulations. Science of the Total Environment, 569–570, 73–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.112
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Blom, K., Guldåker, N., & Hallin, P. O. (2013). Områdesbaserad risk – och sårbarhetsanalys – ORSA. Länsstyrelsen i Skåne [Area-based risk and vulnerability assessment. The County Administrative Board in Skåne].
   Google Scholar
• Brown, T., Beyeler, W., & Barton, D. (2004). Assessing infrastructure interdependencies: The challenge of risk analysis for complex adaptive systems. International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 1(1), 108–117. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCIS.2004.003800
   Google Scholar
• Carlsson, S. A., Henningsson, S., Hrastinski, S., & Keller, C. (2011). Socio-technical IS design science research: Developing design theory for IS integration management. Information Systems and e-Business Management, 9(1), 109–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10257-010-0140-6
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chang, S. E., McDaniels, T., Fox, J., Dhariwal, R., & Longstaff, H. (2014). Toward disaster-resilient cities: Characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments: Toward disaster-resilient cities. Risk Analysis, 34(3), 416–434. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12133
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cheng, Q. (2017). A new mathematical framework and spatial decision support system for modeling cascade interdependency of critical infrastructure during geo-disasters. Journal of Earth Science, 28(1), 131–146. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-017-0746-4
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Coles, S., & Simiu, E. (2003). Estimating uncertainty in the extreme value analysis of data generated by a hurricane simulation model. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 129(11), 1288–1294. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2003)129:11(1288)
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• de Bruijn, K. M., Cumiskey, L., Ní Dhubhda, R., Hounjet, M., & Hynes, W. (2016). Flood vulnerability of critical infrastructure in Cork, Ireland. E3S Web of Conferences, 7, 07005. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160707005
   Google Scholar
• Deltares. (2018). CIrcle – critical infrastructures: Relations and consequences for life and environment.
   Google Scholar
• Dudenhoeffer, D. D., Permann, M. R., & Manic, M. (2006). CIMS: A framework for infrastructure interdependency modeling and analysis. In 2006 Winter Simulation Conference, 3–6 December 2006 Monterey, CA. Washington, DC: IEEE Computer Society, 478–485. https://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/WSC.2006.323029
   Google Scholar
• Ehlen, M. A., & Scholand, A. J. (2005). Modeling interdependencies between power and economic sectors using the N-ABLETM agent-based model. In 2005 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 12–16 June 2005, San Francisco, CA. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE Operations Center, 2824–2828.
   Google Scholar
• Espada Jr, R., Apan, A., & McDougall, K. (2015). Vulnerability assessment and interdependency analysis of critical infrastructures for climate adaptation and flood mitigation. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 6(3), 313–346. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-02-2014-0019
   Google Scholar
• European Union: European Commission. (2007). Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 – on the assessment and management of flood risks.
   Google Scholar
• Fekete, A., Tzavella, K., Armas, I., Binner, J., Garschagen, M., Giupponi, C., Mojtahed, V., Pettita, M., Schneiderbauer, S., & Serre, D. (2015). Critical data source; tool or even infrastructure? Challenges of geographic information systems and remote sensing for disaster risk governance. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 4(4), 1848–1869. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi4041848
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gill, J. C., & Malamud, B. D. (2014). Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards. Reviews of Geophysics, 52(4), 680–722. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000445
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haimes, Y. Y., Horowitz, B. M., Lambert, J. H., Santos, J. R., Lian, C., & Crowther, K. G. (2005). Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. I: Theory and methodology. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 11(2), 67–79. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2005)11:2(67)
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Haraguchi, M., & Kim, S. (2016). Critical infrastructure interdependence in New York City during hurricane sandy. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 7(2), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-03-2015-0015
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hendrickson, N. (2008). Counter factual reasoning – a basic guide for analysts, strategists, and decision makers (Vol. 2). Proteus.
   Google Scholar
• Hilly, G., Vojinovic, Z., Weesakul, S., Sanchez, A., Hoang, D., Djordjevic, S., Chen, A., & Evans, B. (2018). Methodological framework for analysing cascading effects from flood events: The case of Sukhumvit Area, Bangkok, Thailand. Water, 10(1), 81. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10010081
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hines, P., Cotilla-Sanchez, E., & Blumsack, S. (2010). Do topological models provide good information about electricity infrastructure vulnerability? Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 20(3), 033122. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3489887
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
   Google Scholar
• Jain, S. K., Mani, P., Jain, S. K., Prakash, P., Singh, V. P., Tullos, D., Kumar, S., Agarwal, S. P., & Dimri, A. P. (2018). A brief review of flood forecasting techniques and their applications. International Journal of River Basin Management, 16(3), 329–344. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2017.1411920
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Johansson, J., & Hassel, H. (2010). An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis. Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety, 95(12), 1335–1344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2010.06.010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Johansson, J., Hassel, H., & Cedergren, A. (2011). Vulnerability analysis of interdependent critical infrastructures: Case study of the Swedish railway system. International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 7(4), 289. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCIS.2011.045065
   Google Scholar
• Johansson, J., Hassel, H., Cedergren, A., Svegrup, L., & Arvidsson, B. (2015). Method for describing and analysing cascading effects in past events: Initial conclusions and findings. In Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems: ESREL 2015, 7–10 September 2015 Zürich, Switzerland. London: CRC Press, 4423–4431. https://doi.org/10.1201/b19094
   Google Scholar
• Johansson, J., Hassel, H., & Svegrup, L. (2017). Capturing societal interdependencies from a flow perspective – part I: Method and model. In Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice, ESREL 2016, 25–29 September 2016 Glasgow, Scotland. London: CRC Press, p. 351. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315374987
   Google Scholar
• Johnston, A., Slovinsky, P., & Yates, K. L. (2014). Assessing the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure to sea level rise using multi-criteria analysis in Scarborough, Maine (USA). Ocean & Coastal Management, 95, 176–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.04.016
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kaegi, M., Mock, R., & Kröger, W. (2009). Analyzing maintenance strategies by agent-based simulations: A feasibility study. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94(9), 1416–1421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2009.02.002
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kelly, S., Leverett, E., Oughton, E. J., Copic, J., Thacker, S., Pant, R., Pryor, L., Kassara, G., Evan, T., Ruffle, S. J., Tuveson, M., Coburn, A. W., Ralph, D., & Hall, J. W. (2016). Integrated infrastructure: Cyber resiliency in society, mapping the consequences of an interconnected digital economy. Centre for risk studies. University of Cambridge.
   Google Scholar
• Kulawiak, M., & Lubniewski, Z. (2014). SafeCity – a GIS-based tool profiled for supporting decision making in urban development and infrastructure protection. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 89, 174–187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.031
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kystdirektoratet. (2015). Risikostyringsplan for vanddistrikt sjælland [Risk management plan for water district Sjælland].
   Google Scholar
• Laugé, A., Hernantes, J., & Sarriegi, J. M. (2015). Critical infrastructure dependencies: A holistic, dynamic and quantitative approach. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 8, 16–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcip.2014.12.004
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lee II, E. E., Mitchell, J. E., & Wallace, W. A. (2007). Restoration of services in interdependent infrastructure systems: A network flows approach. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 37(6), 1303–1317. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMCC.2007.905859
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Luiijf, H. A. M., Nieuwenhuijs, A. H., Klaver, M. H. A., Van Eeten, M. J. G., & Cruz, E. (2010). Empirical findings on European critical infrastructure dependencies. International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 2(1), 3–18. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSSE.2010.035378
   Google Scholar
• Maidment, D. R., & Morehouse, S. (2002). Arc hydro: GIS for water resources. ESRI, Inc.
   Google Scholar
• McDaniels, T., Chang, S., Peterson, K., Mikawoz, J., & Reed, D. (2007). Empirical framework for characterizing infrastructure failure interdependencies. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 13(3), 175–184. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2007)13:3(175)
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• McNally, R. K., Lee, S.-W., Yavagal, D., & Xiang, W.-N. (2007). Learning the critical infrastructure interdependencies through an ontology-based information system. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 34(6), 1103–1124. https://doi.org/10.1068/b32078
   Google Scholar
• Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., & Theiken, A. (2010). Review article “Assessment of economic flood damage”. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10(8), 1696–1724. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Min, H.-S. J., Beyeler, W., Brown, T., Son, Y. J., & Jones, A. T. (2007). Toward modeling and simulation of critical national infrastructure interdependencies. IIE Transactions (Institute of Industrial Engineers), 39(1), 57–71. https://doi.org/10.1080/07408170600940005
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moon, J., Lee, D., Lee, T., Ahn, J., Shin, J., Yoon, K., & Choi, D. (2015). Group decision procedure to model the dependency structure of complex systems: Framework and case study for critical infrastructures: Group decision procedure to model the dependency structure. Systems Engineering, 18(4), 323–338. https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21306
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morgan, M. G. (2014). Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(20), 7176–7184. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1319946111
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mostert, E., & Junier, S. J. (2009). The European flood risk directive: Challenges for research. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 6(4), 4961–4988. https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-6-4961-2009
   Google Scholar
• MSB. (2011). Identifiering av områden med betydande översvämningsrisk [Identification of areas with significant risk of flooding]. No. 2011–2996.
   Google Scholar
• MSB. (2013). Riskkartor – Vägledning för framtagande av riskkartor enligt förordningen om översvämningsrisker [Risk maps – guidelines for development of risk maps according to the ordinance on flood risk]. Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap, No. 2013-1372–8.
   Google Scholar
• MSB. (2018). Översyn av områden med betydande översvämningsrisk [Overview of areas with significant risk of flooding]. Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap, No. MSB1152.
   Google Scholar
• Müller, U. (2013). Implementation of the flood risk management directive in selected European countries. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 4(3), 115–125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-013-0013-y
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Nones, M., & Pescaroli, G. (2016). Implications of cascading effects for the EU floods directive. International Journal of River Basin Management, 14(2), 195–204. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2016.1149074
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ouyang, M. (2014). Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 121, 43–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pant, R., Hall, J. W., & Blainey, S. P. (2016). Vulnerability assessment framework for interdependent critical infrastructures: Case-study for Great Britain’s rail network. European Journal of Transport & Infrastructure Research, 16(1). http://doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2016.16.1.3120
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pitt, M. (2008). Learning lessons from the 2007 floods. Final Report. Cabinet Office.
   Google Scholar
• Poljanšek, K., Bono, F., & Gutiérrez, E. (2012). Seismic risk assessment of interdependent critical infrastructure systems: The case of European gas and electricity networks. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 41(1), 61–79. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.1118
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Rinaldi, S. M., Peerenboom, J. P., & Kelly, T. K. (2001). Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. IEEE Control Systems Magazine, 21(6), 11–25. https://doi.org/10.1109/37.969131
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• SEPA. (2015). Flood risk management strategy – forth estuary local plan district.
   Google Scholar
• Setola, R. (2007). Availability of healthcare services in a network-based scenario. International Journal of Networking and Virtual Organisations, 4(2), 130–144. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJNVO.2007.013539
   Google Scholar
• Shih, C. Y., Scown, C. D., Soibelman, L., Matthews, H. S., Garrett Jr, J. H., Dodrill, K., & McSurdy, S. (2009). Data management for geospatial vulnerability assessment of interdependencies in U.S. power generation. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 15(3), 179–189. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2009)15:3(179)
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Simon, H. A. (1996). The sciences of the artificial. MIT Press.
   Google Scholar
• Sterman, J. (2000). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
   Google Scholar
• Svegrup, L., Johansson, J., & Hassel, H. (2017). Capturing societal interdependencies from a flow perspective—part II: Application. In Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice, ESREL 2016, 25–29 September 2016 Glasgow, Scotland. London: CRC Press, 356. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315374987
   Google Scholar
• Svegrup, L., Johansson, J., & Hassel, H. (2019). Integration of critical infrastructure and societal consequence models: impact on Swedish power system mitigation decisions. Risk Analysis, 39(9), 1970–1996. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13272
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tamaro, A., Grimaz, S., Santulin, M., & Slejko, D. (2018). Characterization of the expected seismic damage for a critical infrastructure: The case of the oil pipeline in Friuli Venezia Giulia (NE Italy). Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 16(3), 1425–1445. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0252-1
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Teng, J., Jakeman, A. J., Vaze, J., Croke, B. F., Dutta, D., & Kim, S. J. E. M. (2017). Flood inundation modelling: A review of methods, recent advances and uncertainty analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software, 90, 201–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.01.006
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Toubin, M., Serre, D., Diab, Y., & Laganier, R. (2012). An auto-diagnosis tool to highlight interdependencies between urban technical networks. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(7), 2219–2224. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2219-2012
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• van Alphen, J., Martini, F., Loat, R., Slomp, R., & Passchier, R. (2009). Flood risk mapping in Europe, experiences and best practices. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2(4), 285–292. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01045.x
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Viavattene, C., Jiminez, J., Owen, D., Priest, S. J., Parker, D. J., Micou, P., & Ly, S. (2015). Coastal risk assessment framework guidance document.
   Google Scholar
• Wallemacq, P., & House, R. (2018). Economic losses, poverty & disasters 1998–2017. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).
   Google Scholar
• Xu, W., Hong, L., He, L., Wang, S., & Chen, X. (2012). Supply-driven dynamic inoperability input-output price model for interdependent infrastructure systems. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 17(4), 151–162. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000058
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang, Z., Demšar, U., Wang, S., & Virrantaus, K. (2018). A spatial fuzzy influence diagram for modelling spatial objects’ dependencies: A case study on tree-related electric outages. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 32(2), 349–366. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2017.1385789
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zio, E., & Sansavini, G. (2011). Modeling interdependent network systems for identifying cascade-safe operating margins. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 60(1), 94–101. https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.2010.2104211
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar