Towards modeling data-poor lakes at the regional scale using parameters from data-rich lakes and relationships to lake characteristics

References

• Adrian R, O’Reilly CM, Zagarese H, Baines SB, Hessen DO, Keller W, Livingstone DM, Sommaruga R, Straile D, Van Donk E, et al. 2009. Lakes as sentinels of climate change. Limnol Oceanogr. 54:2283–2297.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bartosiewicz M, Laurion I, Clayer F, Maranger R. 2016. Heat-wave effects on oxygen, nutrients, and phytoplankton can alter global warming potential of gases emitted from a small shallow lake. Environ Sci Technol. 50(12):6267–6275.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bartosiewicz M, Przytulska A, Lapierre JF, Laurion I, Lehmann MF, Maranger R. 2019. Hot tops, cold bottoms: synergistic climate warming and shielding effects increase carbon burial in lakes. Limnol Oceanogr Lett. 4(5):132–144.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bartosiewicz M, Ptak M, Iestyn Woolway R, Sojka M. 2020. On thinning ice: effects of atmospheric warming, changes in wind speed and rainfall on ice conditions in temperate lakes (Northern Poland). J Hydrol. 597:125724.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Beier CM, Stella JC, Dovčiak M, Mcnulty SA. 2012. Local climatic drivers of changes in phenology at a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America. Clim Change. 115(2):399–417.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bouffard D, Zdorovennova G, Bogdanov S, Efremova T, Lavanchy S, Palshin N, Terzhevik A, Vinnå LR, Volkov S, Wüest A, et al. 2019. Under-ice convection dynamics in a boreal lake. Inland Waters. 9(2):142–161.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Clayer F, Thrane JE, Brandt U, Dörsch P, Wit HA. 2021. Boreal headwater catchment as hot spot of carbon processing from headwater to fjord. J Geophys Res Biogeosci. 126:e2021JG006359.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Couture R-M, De Wit HA, Tominaga K, Kiuru P, Markelov I. 2015. Oxygen dynamics in a boreal lake responds to long-term changes in climate, ice phenology, and DOC inputs. J Geophys Res Biogeosci. 120(11):2441–2456.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Couture R-M, Moe SJ, Lin Y, Kaste Ø, Haande S, Lyche Solheim A. 2018. Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network. Sci Total Environ. 621:713–724.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• De Stasio BT, Hill DK, Kleinhans JM, Nibbelink NP, Magnuson JJ. 1996. Potential effects of global climate change on small north-temperate lakes: physics, fish, and plankton. Limnol Oceanogr. 41(5):1136–1149.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• De Wit HA, Couture R-M, Jackson-Blake L, Futter MN, Valinia S, Austnes K, Guerrero J-L, Lin Y. 2018. Pipes or chimneys? For carbon cycling in small boreal lakes, precipitation matters most. Limnol Oceanogr Lett. 3(3):275–284.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dibike Y, Prowse T, Saloranta T, Ahmed R. 2011. Response of Northern Hemisphere lake-ice cover and lake-water thermal structure patterns to a changing climate. Hydrol Processes. 25(19):2942–2953.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Dodds WK, Perkin JS, Gerken JE. 2013. Human impact on freshwater ecosystem services: a global perspective. Environ Sci Technol. 47(16):9061–9068.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fang X, Alam SR, Stefan HG, Jiang L, Jacobson PC, Pereira DL. 2012. Simulations of water quality and oxythermal cisco habitat in Minnesota lakes under past and future climate scenarios. Water Qual Res J. 47(3–4):375–388.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fang X, Stefan HG. 2009. Simulations of climate effects on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and ice and snow covers in lakes of the contiguous U.S. under past and future climate scenarios. Limnol Oceanogr. 54(6 part 2):2359–2370.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Golub M, Thiery W, Marcé R, Pierson D, Vanderkelen I, Mercado D, Woolway RI, Grant L, Jennings E, Schewe J, et al. 2022. A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP lake sector. Geosci Model Dev Discuss. 15(11):4597–4623.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Guzzo MM, Blanchfield PJ. 2017. Climate change alters the quantity and phenology of habitat for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in small boreal shield lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci. 74(6):871–884.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hallerbäck S, Huning LS, Love C, Persson M, Stensen K, Gustafsson D, Aghakouchak A. 2021. Warming climate shortens ice durations and alters freeze and breakup patterns in Swedish water bodies. Göttingen (Germany): Copernicus GmbH.
   Google Scholar
• Hastie A, Lauerwald R, Weyhenmeyer G, Sobek S, Verpoorter C, Regnier P. 2018. CO2 evasion from boreal lakes: revised estimate, drivers of spatial variability, and future projections. Glob Change Biol. 24(2):711–728.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holubová M, Hejzlar J, Čech M, Vašek M, Blabolil P, Peterka J. 2021. Fluctuations in pelagic fish density linked to ambient conditions. J Fish Biol. 98(3):756–767.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jackson-Blake LA, Starrfelt J. 2015. Do higher data frequency and Bayesian auto-calibration lead to better model calibration? Insights from an application of INCA-P, a process-based river phosphorus model. J Hydrol. 527:641–655.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jacob D, Petersen J, Eggert B, Alias A, Christensen OB, Bouwer LM, Braun A, Colette A, Déqué M, Georgievski G, et al. 2014. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg Environ Change. 14(2):563–578.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jacobson PC, Stefan HG, Pereira DL. 2010. Coldwater fish oxythermal habitat in Minnesota lakes: influence of total phosphorus, July air temperature, and relative depth. Can J Fish Aquat Sci. 67(12):2002–2013.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jane SF, Hansen GJA, Kraemer BM, Leavitt PR, Mincer JL, North RL, Pilla RM, Stetler JT, Williamson CE, Woolway RI, et al. 2021. Widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakes. Nature. 594(7861):66–70.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jiang LP, Fang X. 2016. Simulation and validation of cisco lethal conditions in Minnesota lakes under past and future climate scenarios using constant survival limits. Water. 8(7):279.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Karlsson J, Byström P, Ask J, Ask P, Persson L, Jansson M. 2009. Light limitation of nutrient-poor lake ecosystems. Nature. 460(7254):506–509.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Karlsson K-GR. 2003. A 10 year cloud climatology over Scandinavia derived from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer imagery. Int J Climatol. 23(9):1023–1044.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Keyler TD, Matthias BG, Hrabik TR. 2019. Siscowet lake charr (Salvelinus namaycush siscowet) visual foraging habitat in relation to daily and seasonal light cycles. Hydrobiologia. 840(1):63–76.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kiuru P, Ojala A, Mammarella I, Heiskanen J, Kämäräinen M, Vesala T, Huttula T. 2018. Effects of climate change on CO2 concentration and efflux in a humic boreal lake: a modeling study. J Geophys Res Biogeosci. 123(7):2212–2233.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Knoll LB, Williamson CE, Pilla RM, Leach TH, Brentrup JA, Fisher TJ. 2018. Browning-related oxygen depletion in an oligotrophic lake. Inland Waters. 8(3):255–263.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kraemer BM, Anneville O, Chandra S, Dix M, Kuusisto E, Livingstone DM, Rimmer A, Schladow SG, Silow E, Sitoki LM, et al. 2015. Morphometry and average temperature affect lake stratification responses to climate change. Geophys Res Lett. 42(12):4981–4988.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kraemer BM, Pilla RM, Woolway RI, Anneville O, Ban S, Colom-Montero W, Devlin SP, Dokulil MT, Gaiser EE, Hambright KD, et al. 2021. Climate change drives widespread shifts in lake thermal habitat. Nat Clim Change. 11(6):521–529.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lester NP, Dextrase AJ, Kushneriuk RS, Rawson MR, Ryan PA. 2004. Light and temperature: key factors affecting walleye abundance and production. Trans Am Fish Soc. 133(3):588–605.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Los FJ, Blaas M. 2010. Complexity, accuracy and practical applicability of different biogeochemical model versions. J Marine Syst. 81(1–2):44–74.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magee MR, McIntyre PB, Wu CH. 2018. Modeling oxythermal stress for cool-water fishes in lakes using a cumulative dosage approach. Can J Fish Aquat Sci. 75(8):1303–1312.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Magnuson JJ, Webster KE, Assel RA, Bowser CJ, Dillon PJ, Eaton JG, Evans HE, Fee EJ, Hall RI, Mortsch LR, et al. 1997. Potential effects of climate changes on aquatic systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield region. Hydrol Processes. 11(8):825–871.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Markelov I, Couture R-M, Fischer R, Haande S, Van Cappellen P. 2019. Coupling water column and sediment biogeochemical dynamics: modeling internal phosphorus loading, climate change responses, and mitigation measures in Lake Vansjø, Norway. J Geophys Res Biogeosci. 124(12):3847–3866.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MATLAB V. 2019. 9.6. 0.1072779 (R2019a). Natick (MA): The MathWorks Inc.
   Google Scholar
• Meinshausen M, Smith SJ, Calvin K, Daniel JS, Kainuma MLT, Lamarque JF, Matsumoto K, Montzka SA, Raper SCB, Riahi K, et al. 2011. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Change. 109(1–2):213–241.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Missaghi S, Hondzo M, Herb W. 2017. Prediction of lake water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fish habitat under changing climate. Clim Change. 141(4):747–757.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moore TN, Mesman JP, Ladwig R, Feldbauer J, Olsson F, Pilla RM, Shatwell T, Venkiteswaran JJ, Delany AD, Dugan H, et al. 2021. Lakeensemblr: an R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes. Environ Model Softw. 143:105101.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moss R, Babiker M, Brinkman S, et al. 2008. Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies. Geneva (Switzerland): UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
   Google Scholar
• Narisetty NN. 2020. Chapter 4 – Bayesian model selection for high-dimensional data. In: Srinivasa Rao ASR, Rao CR, editors. Handbook of statistics. Amsterdam (Netherlands): Elsevier; p. 207–248.
   Google Scholar
• Nürnberg GK. 1995. Quantifying anoxia in lakes. Limnol Oceanogr. 40(6):1100–1111.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• O’Reilly CM, Sharma S, Gray DK, Hampton SE, Read JS, Rowley RJ, Schneider P, Lenters JD, Mcintyre PB, Kraemer BM, et al. 2015. Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe. Geophys Res Lett. 42(24):10773–10781.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pilla RM, Couture RM. 2021. Attenuation of photosynthetically active radiation and ultraviolet radiation in response to changing dissolved organic carbon in browning lakes: modeling and parametrization. Limnol Oceanogr. 66(6):2278–2289.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pilla RM, Williamson CE, Adamovich BV, Adrian R, Anneville O, Chandra S, Colom-Montero W, Devlin SP, Dix MA, Dokulil MT, et al. 2020. Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes. Sci Rep. 10(1):20514.
   Google Scholar
• Pilla RM, Williamson CE. 2021. Earlier ice breakup induces changepoint responses in duration and variability of spring mixing and summer stratification in dimictic lakes. Limnol Oceanogr. 67(S1):S173–S183.
   Google Scholar
• R Core Team. 2020. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna (Austria): R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
   Google Scholar
• Richardson D, Melles S, Pilla R, Hetherington A, Knoll L, Williamson C, Kraemer B, Jackson J, Long E, Moore K, et al. 2017. Transparency, geomorphology and mixing regime explain variability in trends in lake temperature and stratification across northeastern North America (1975–2014). Water. 9(6):442.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Robson BJ. 2014. When do aquatic systems models provide useful predictions, what is changing, and what is next? Environ Model Softw. 61:287–296.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Saloranta TM, Andersen T. 2007. Mylake – a multi-year lake simulation model code suitable for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis simulations. Ecol Modell. 207(1):45–60.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schindler DW. 2009. Lakes as sentinels and integrators for the effects of climate change on watersheds, airsheds, and landscapes. Limnol Oceanogr. 54(6 part 2):2349–2358.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• SMHI. 2017. Modell data per område [Modell data per area] [accessed June 2017]. https://vattenwebb.smhi.se/modelarea/
   Google Scholar
• SMHI. 2019. Is på sjöar och vattendrag [Ice on lakes and waterways] [accessed August 31, 2019]. https://www.smhi.se/data/hydrologi/is-pa-sjoar-och-vattendrag
   Google Scholar
• Solomon CT, Jones SE, Weidel BC, Buffam I, Fork ML, Karlsson J, Larsen S, Lennon JT, Read JS, Sadro S, et al. 2015. Ecosystem consequences of changing inputs of terrestrial dissolved organic matter to lakes: current knowledge and future challenges. Ecosystems. 18(3):376–389.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stasko AD, Gunn JM, Johnston TA. 2012. Role of ambient light in structuring north-temperate fish communities: potential effects of increasing dissolved organic carbon concentration with a changing climate. Environ Rev. 20(3):173–190.
   Google Scholar
• Stefan HG, Fang X. 1994. Dissolved oxygen model for regional lake analysis. Ecol Modell. 71(1-3):37–68.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stefan HG, Fang X, Eaton JG. 2001. Simulated fish habitat changes in North American lakes in response to projected climate warming. Trans Am Fish Soc. 130(3):459–477.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stefan HG, Hondzo M, Eaton JG, McCormick JH. 1995. Validation of a fish habitat model for lakes. Ecol Modell. 82(3):211–224.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stocker TF, editor. 2014. Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Working Group 1 (WG1) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5). Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press.
   Google Scholar
• Thrane J-E, Hessen DO, Andersen T. 2014. The absorption of light in lakes: negative impact of dissolved organic carbon on primary productivity. Ecosystems. 17(6):1040–1052.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Toming K, Kotta J, Uuemaa E, Sobek S, Kutser T, Tranvik LJ. 2020. Predicting lake dissolved organic carbon at a global scale. Sci Rep. 10(1):8471.
   Google Scholar
• Van Dorst RM, Gårdmark A, Svanbäck R, Huss M. 2020. Does browning-induced light limitation reduce fish body growth through shifts in prey composition or reduced foraging rates? Freshw Biol. 65(5):947–959.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Van Zuiden TM, Chen MM, Stefanoff S, Lopez L, Sharma S. 2016. Projected impacts of climate change on three freshwater fishes and potential novel competitive interactions. Divers Distrib. 22(5):603–614.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Vasconcelos FR, Diehl S, Rodríguez P, Hedström P, Karlsson J, Byström P. 2019. Bottom-up and top-down effects of browning and warming on shallow lake food webs. Glob Change Biol. 25(2):504–521.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Weidel BC, Baglini K, Jones SE, Kelly PT, Solomon CT, Zwart JA. 2017. Light climate and dissolved organic carbon concentration influence species-specific changes in fish zooplanktivory. Inland Waters. 7(2):210–217.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Winslow LA, Hansen GJA, Read JS, Notaro M. 2017. Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. lakes. Sci Data. 4(1):170053.
   PubMedGoogle Scholar
• Woolway RI, Kraemer BM, Lenters JD, Merchant CJ, O’Reilly CM, Sharma S. 2020. Global lake responses to climate change. Nat Rev Earth Environ. 1(8):388–403.
   Google Scholar
• Zentner DL, Cross TK, Raabe JK, Jacobson PC. 2019. Using GIS to predict habitat in lakes: an example using nearshore substrate categories. Limnol Oceanogr. 17(1):1–16.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar