Policy uncertainty and land transaction prices in China

References

• Allen, Franklin, Jun Qian, and Meijun Qian. 2005. “Law, Finance, and Economic Growth in China.” Journal of Financial Economics 77 (1): 57–116.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Xiaoxi Wang. 2013. “A Measure of Economic Policy Uncertainty for China.” Unpublished Working Paper, University of Chicago, Chicago.
   Google Scholar
• Baker, Scott R., Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis. 2016. “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4): 1593–1636.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bernanke, Ben, and Mark Gertler. 1989. “Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations.” American Economic Review 79 (1): 14–31.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bernanke, Ben S. 1983. “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1): 85–106.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bhattacharya, Utpal, Po-Hsuan Hsu, Xuan Tian, and Yan Xu. 2017. “What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty?” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 52 (5): 1869–1901.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bloom, Nicholas. 2009. “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks.” Econometrica 77 (3): 623–685.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bloom, Nicholas, Stephen Bond, and John Van Reenen. 2007. “Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics.” The Review of Economic Studies 74 (2): 391–415.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bonaime, Alice, Huseyin Gulen, and Mihai Ion. 2018. “Does Policy Uncertainty Affect Mergers and Acquisitions?” Journal of Financial Economics 129 (3): 531–558.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bordo, Michael D., John V. Duca, and Christoffer Koch. 2016. “Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Credit Channel: Aggregate and Bank Level US Evidence over Several Decades.” Journal of Financial Stability 26: 90–106.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brogaard, Jonathan, and Andrew Detzel. 2015. “The Asset-pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty.” Management Science 61 (1): 3–18.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cai, Hongbin, J. Vernon Henderson, and Qinghua Zhang. 2013. “China’s Land Market Auctions: Evidence of Corruption?” The RAND Journal of Economics 44 (3): 488–521.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Carrière-Swallow, Yan, and Luis Felipe Céspedes. 2013. “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies.” Journal of International Economics 90 (2): 316–325.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, Ting, and James Kai-sing Kung. 2019. “Busting the ‘Princelings’: The Campaign against Corruption in China’s Primary Land Market.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 134 (1): 185–226.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chen, Ting, and J.K.-S. Kung. 2016. “Do Land Revenue Windfalls Create a Political Resource Curse? Evidence from China.” Journal of Development Economics 123: 86–106.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Christiano, Lawrence J., Roberto Motto, and Massimo Rostagno. 2014. “Risk Shocks.” American Economic Review 104 (1): 27–65.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Çolak, Gönül, Art Durnev, and Yiming Qian. 2017. “Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from US Gubernatorial Elections.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 52 (6): 2523–2564.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Deng, F. Frederic. 2005. “Public Land Leasing and the Changing Roles of Local Government in Urban China.” The Annals of Regional Science 39 (2): 353–373.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Denis, David J., and Valeriy Sibilkov. 2010. “Financial Constraints, Investment, and the Value of Cash Holdings.” The Review of Financial Studies 23 (1): 247–269.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ding, Chengri, Yi Niu, and Erik Lichtenberg. 2014. “Spending Preferences of Local Officials with Off-budget Land Revenues of Chinese Cities.” China Economic Review 31: 265–276.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fajgelbaum, Pablo D., Edouard Schaal, and Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel. 2017. “Uncertainty Traps.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 132 (4): 1641–1692.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fan, Joseph P. H., K. C. John Wei, and Xinzhong Xu. 2011. “Corporate Finance and Governance in Emerging Markets: A Selective Review and an Agenda for Future Research.” Journal of Corporate Finance 17 (2): 207–214.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Fazzari, Steven M., and Bruce C. Petersen. 1988. “Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 141–195.
   Google Scholar
• Francis, Bill B., Iftekhar Hasan, and Yun Zhu. 2014. “Political Uncertainty and Bank Loan Contracting.” Journal of Empirical Finance 29: 281–286.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gulen, Huseyin, and Mihai Ion. 2016. “Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment.” The Review of Financial Studies 29 (3): 523–564.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Han, Li, and James Kai-Sing Kung. 2015. “Fiscal Incentives and Policy Choices of Local Governments: Evidence from China.” Journal of Development Economics 116: 89–104.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• He, Qing, Chang Xue, and Chenqi Zhu. 2016. “Financial Development and Patterns of Industrial Specialization: Evidence from China.” Review of Finance 21 (4): 1593–1638.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ho, Samuel P. S., and George C. S. Lin. 2003. “Emerging Land Markets in Rural and Urban China: Policies and Practices.” The China Quarterly 175: 681–707.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Holland, A. Steven, Steven H. Ott, and Timothy J. Riddiough. 2000. “The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination of Competing Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data.” Real Estate Economics 28 (1): 33–64.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Jens, Candace E. 2017. “Political Uncertainty and Investment: Causal Evidence from US Gubernatorial Elections.” Journal of Financial Economics 124 (3): 563–579.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Julio, Brandon, and Youngsuk Yook. 2012. “Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles.” The Journal of Finance 67 (1): 45–83.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kaplan, Steven N., and Luigi Zingales. 1997. “Do Investment–Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 112 (1): 169–215.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kelly, Bryan, Ľuboš Pástor, and Pietro Veronesi. 2016. “The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market.” The Journal of Finance 71 (5): 2417–2480.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Kim, Hyunseob, and Howard Kung. 2017. “The Asset Redeployability Channel: How Uncertainty Affects Corporate Investment.” The Review of Financial Studies 30 (1): 245–280.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Liu, Laura Xiaolei, Haibing Shu, and K.C. John Wei. 2017. “The Impacts of Political Uncertainty on Asset Prices: Evidence from the Bo Scandal in China.” Journal of Financial Economics 125 (2): 286–310.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lu, Yinqiu, and Tao Sun. 2013. “Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?” International Monetary Fund. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/243/article-A001-en.xml
   Google Scholar
• Maurice, Tse K. S., Frederik I. H. Pretorius, and K. W. Chau. 2011. “Market Sentiments, Winner’s Curse and Bidding Outcome in Land Auctions.” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 42 (3): 247–274.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Modigliani, Franco, and Merton H. Miller. 1958. “The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment.” The American Economic Review 48 (3): 261–297.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Morikawa, Masayuki. 2016. “What Types of Policy Uncertainties Matter for Business?” Pacific Economic Review 21 (5): 527–540.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Myers, Stewart C. 1984. “Capital Structure Puzzle.” NBER Working Paper w1393. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w1393/w1393.pdf
   Google Scholar
• Nguyen, Nam H., and Hieu V. Phan. 2017. “Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 52 (2): 613–644.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pan, Jiun-Nan, Jr-Tsung Huang, and Tsun-Feng Chiang. 2015. “Empirical Study of the Local Government Deficit, Land Finance and Real Estate Markets in China.” China Economic Review 32: 57–67.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pástor, Ľuboš, and Pietro Veronesi. 2013. “Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia.” Journal of Financial Economics 110 (3): 520–545.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pindyck, Robert S. 1991. “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment.” Journal of Economic Literature 29 (3): 1110–1148.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Qin, Yu, Hongjia Zhu, and Rong Zhu. 2016. “Changes in the Distribution of Land Prices in Urban China during 2007–2012.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 57: 77–90.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Shin, Hyun-Han, and Young S. Park. 1999. “Financing Constraints and Internal Capital Markets: Evidence from Korean ‘Chaebols.’” Journal of Corporate Finance 5 (2): 169–191.
   Google Scholar
• Shleifer, Andrei, and Robert Vishny. 2011. “Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 25 (1): 29–48.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. 2012. “Disentangling the Channels of the 2007–09 Recession.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 41 (1): 81–135.
   Google Scholar
• Stokey, Nancy L. 2016. “Wait-and-see: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty.” Review of Economic Dynamics 21: 246–265.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tao, Ran, Fubing Su, Mingxing Liu, and Guangzhong Cao. 2010. “Land Leasing and Local Public Finance in China’s Regional Development: Evidence from Prefecture-level cities.” Urban Studies 47 (10): 2217–2236.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, Long, and Yang Yang. 2021. “Political Connections in the Land Market: Evidence from China’s State-owned Enterprises.” Real Estate Economics 49 (1): 7–35.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wang, Yizhong, Carl R. Chen, and Ying Sophie Huang. 2014. “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Evidence from China.” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 26: 227–243.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wu, Guiying Laura, Qu Feng, and Pei Li. 2015. “Does Local Governments’ Budget Deficit Push Up Housing Prices In China?” China Economic Review 35: 183–196.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Yang, Zan, Rongrong Ren, Hongyu Liu, and Huan Zhang. 2015. “Land Leasing and Local Government Behaviour in China: Evidence from Beijing.” Urban Studies 52 (5): 841–856.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zhang, Guangli, Jianlei Han, Zheyao Pan, and Haozhi Huang. 2015. “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Capital Structure Choice: Evidence from China.” Economic Systems 39 (3): 439–457.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar