1,655
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution of Anopheles maculipennis s.l. and imported cases

, , , ORCID Icon, , , , , ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon, , , , , , , , , ORCID Icon, , , , , , , , , , , , & show all
Article: 2343911 | Received 25 Oct 2023, Accepted 11 Apr 2024, Published online: 02 May 2024

References

  • WHO. World malaria report 2022. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2022.
  • Tatem AJ, Jia P, Ordanovich D, et al. The geography of imported malaria to non-endemic countries: a meta-analysis of nationally reported statistics. Lancet Infect Dis. 2017 Jan 1;17(1):98–107. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30326-7
  • ECDC. Malaria annual epidemiological report for 2017; 2017.
  • Tseroni M, Baka A, Kapizioni C, et al. Prevention of malaria resurgence in Greece through the association of Mass Drug Administration (MDA) to immigrants from malaria-endemic regions and standard control measures. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 Nov 19;9(11):e0004215. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004215
  • Nicoletti M. Three scenarios in insect-borne diseases. Insect-Borne Dis 21st Century. 2020 Jan 1: 99–251. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-818706-7.00005-X
  • Campbell F, Tricco AC, Munn Z, et al. Mapping reviews, scoping reviews, and evidence and gap maps (EGMs): the same but different— the “Big Picture” review family. Syst Rev. 2023 Dec 1;12(1):1–8. doi:10.1186/s13643-022-02163-4
  • Ferraguti M, Martínez-De La Puente J, Roiz D, et al. Effects of landscape anthropization on mosquito community composition and abundance. Sci Rep. 2016 Jul 4;6(1):1–9. doi:10.1038/srep29002
  • Brugueras S, Fernández-Martínez B, Martínez-de la Puente J, et al. Environmental drivers, climate change and emergent diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and their vectors in Southern Europe: A systematic review. Environ Res. 2020 Dec 1;191:110038. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2020.110038
  • Teurlai M, Menkès CE, Cavarero V, et al. Socio-economic and climate factors associated with dengue fever spatial heterogeneity: a worked example in New Caledonia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 Dec 1;9(12):e0004211. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004211
  • Velasco E, Gomez-Barroso D, Varela C, et al. Non-imported malaria in non-endemic countries: A review of cases in Spain. Malar J. 2017 Jun 29;16(1):1–6. doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1915-8
  • Smith MW, Willis T, Alfieri L, et al. Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa. Nat Commun. 2020 Aug 28;11(1):1–9. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13993-7
  • Carlson CJ, Bannon E, Mendenhall E, et al. Rapid range shifts in African Anopheles mosquitoes over the last century. Biol Lett. 2023 Feb 15;19(2):20220365. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2022.0365
  • Gebhardt ME, Krizek RS, Coetzee M, et al. Expanded geographic distribution and host preference of Anopheles gibbinsi (Anopheles species 6) in northern Zambia. Malar J. 2022 Dec 1;21(1):1–10. doi:10.1186/s12936-022-04231-5
  • Duguma T, Nuri A, Melaku Y. Prevalence of malaria and associated risk factors among the community of Mizan-Aman Town and its catchment area in Southwest Ethiopia. J Parasitol Res. 2022;2022:3503317. doi:10.1155/2022/3503317
  • Tatem AJ, Jia P, Ordanovich D, et al. The geography of imported malaria to non-endemic countries: a meta-analysis of nationally reported statistics. Lancet Infect Dis. 2017 Jan 1;17(1):98–107. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30326-7
  • Zhao X, Thanapongtharm W, Lawawirojwong S, et al. Malaria risk map using spatial multi-criteria decision analysis along Yunnan border during the pre-elimination period. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2020 Aug 1;103(2):793–809. doi:10.4269/ajtmh.19-0854
  • Herrador Z, Fernández-Martinez B, Quesada-Cubo V, et al. Imported cases of malaria in Spain: observational study using nationally reported statistics and surveillance data, 2002–2015. Malar J. 2019 Jul 10;18(1):230. doi:10.1186/s12936-019-2863-2
  • Bertola M, Mazzucato M, Pombi M, et al. Updated occurrence and bionomics of potential malaria vectors in Europe: a systematic review (2000–2021). Parasit Vectors. 2022 Mar 15;15(1):1–34. doi:10.1186/s13071-021-05118-1
  • Vicente JL, Sousa CA, Alten B, et al. Genetic and phenotypic variation of the malaria vector Anopheles atroparvus in southern Europe. Malar J. 2011 Jan 11;10(1):1–9. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-10-5
  • Abatzoglou JT, Dobrowski SZ, Parks SA, et al. Terraclimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015. Sci Data. 2018 Jan 9;5(1):1–12. doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.191
  • Hijmans RJ, Phillips S, Elith J. dismo: Species Distribution Modeling_ R package version 1.3-9. 2022.
  • Lourenço PM, Sousa CA, Seixas J, et al. Anopheles atroparvus density modeling using MODIS NDVI in a former malarious area in Portugal. J Vector Ecol. 2011 Dec 1;36(2):279–291. doi:10.1111/j.1948-7134.2011.00168.x
  • Hertig E. Distribution of anopheles vectors and potential malaria transmission stability in Europe and the Mediterranean area under future climate change. Parasit Vectors. 2019 Jan 8;12(1):1–9. doi:10.1186/s13071-018-3278-6
  • Roberts DR, Bahn V, Ciuti S, et al. Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure. Ecography. 2017 Aug 1;40(8):913–929. doi:10.1111/ecog.02881
  • Segurado P, Araújo MB, Kunin WE. Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models. J Appl Ecol. 2006 Jun 1;43(3):433–444. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01162.x
  • Shepard D. A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly-spaced data. In: Proceedings of the 1968 23rd ACM national conference on -. New York. New York: ACM Press; 1968. p. 517–524.
  • Robert J. Hijmans. raster: geographic data analysis and modeling [Internet]. 2021.
  • Zhou Y, Zhang J. Application of GIS in downscaling regional climate model results over the province of Ontario. Environmental Systems Research. 2014;3(1):8. doi:10.1186/2193-2697-3-8
  • Naimi B. Araújo MB. sdm: a reproducible and extensible R platform for species distribution modelling. Ecography. 2016 Apr 1;39(4):368–375. doi:10.1111/ecog.01881
  • Araújo MB, New M. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol. 2007;22(1):42–47. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010
  • McCullagh P, Nelder JA. Generalized linear models [Internet]. Routledge; 1989.
  • Hastie T, Tibshirani R. Generalized additive models. Monogr Stat Appl Probab Chapman and Hall/CRC. 1990;1.
  • Breiman L. Random forests. Mach Learn. 2001;45(1):5–32. doi:10.1023/A:1010933404324
  • Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Buja A. Flexible discriminant analysis by optimal scoring. J Am Stat Assoc. 1994;89(428):1255–1270. doi:10.1080/01621459.1994.10476866
  • Friedman JH. Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine. Ann Stat. 2001;29(5):1189–1232.
  • Vapnik V. The nature of statistical learning theory. Berlin: Springer Science & Business Media; 1999.
  • Rosenblatt F. The perceptron: a probabilistic model for information storage and organization in the brain. Psychol Rev. 1958;65(6):386–408.
  • Elith J, Leathwick JR. Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst. 2009 Feb 6;40:677–697. doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159
  • Fielding A. conservation JBE, 1997 undefined. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. JSTOR.
  • Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. The elements of statistical learning [Internet]. New York (NY): Springer New York; 2009; (Springer Series in Statistics).
  • Garcia RA, Burgess ND, Cabeza M, et al. Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates. Glob Chang Biol. 2012 Apr 1;18(4):1253–1269. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02605.x
  • INĒ. Instituto Nacional de Estadística. 2021. p. https://www.ine.es.
  • Cuadros J, Calvente MJ, Benito A, et al. Plasmodium ovale malaria acquired in Central Spain. Emerg Infect Dis. 2002 Dec 1;8(12):1506. doi:10.3201/eid0812.020105
  • Alós JI, Cercenado E, Rodriguez-Créixems M, et al. Suspected airport malaria in Spain. Eur J Clin Microbiol. 1985 Oct;4(5):509. doi:10.1007/BF02014436
  • Santa-Olalla Peralta P, Vazquez-Torres MC, Latorre-Fandos E, et al. First autochthonous malaria case due to Plasmodium vivax since eradication, Spain, October 2010. Euro Surveill. 2010 Oct 14;15(41):19684. doi:10.2807/ese.15.41.19684-en
  • Velasco E, Gomez-Barroso D, Varela C, et al. Non-imported malaria in non-endemic countries: A review of cases in Spain. Malar J. 2017 Jun 29;16(1):1–6. doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1915-8
  • Suárez B, Sierra MJ, Gil S, et al. Informe de situación y evaluación del riesgo para España de Paludismo [Internet]. 2015.
  • Sanidad de Sanidad. Plan Nacional de Prevención, Vigilancia y Control de las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores. Parte I. Enfermedades transmitidas por Aedes. Parte II: Enfermedades transmitidas por Culex. Abril 2023. [Internet]. 2023.
  • Linares-Rufo M, Bermudez-Marval H, García-Bertolín C, et al. Perspectives of primary care physicians in Spain on malaria: a cross-sectional survey and retrospective review of cases. Malar J. 2024 Dec 1;23(1):1–11. doi:10.1186/s12936-023-04826-6
  • Ramsdale C, Coluzzi M. Studies on the infectivity of tropical African strains of Plasmodium falciparum to some southern European vectors of malaria. Parassitologia. 1975;17(1–3):39–48.
  • Verona Mesia B, López-Ruiz N, Duran-Pla E. Epidemiological investigation of a case of malaria in a non-endemic area, Campo de Gibraltar, Cadiz, Spain, January 2022. Euro Surveill. 2022;27(46):2200786. doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.46.2200786
  • Gama Sousa Carrilho da Costa CA. Malaria vectorial capacity and competence of Anopheles atroparvus Van Thiel, 1927 (Diptera, Culicidade): implications for the potencial re-emergence of malaria in Portugal [Internet]. 2008.
  • ECDC, Stockholm. Malaria, annual epidemiological report for 2017. Surveillance Report; 2020; (January):6.