International Interactions, Volume 48, Issue 4 (2022)

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International Interactions, Volume 48, Issue 4 (2022)

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Lessons from a Conflict Escalation Prediction Competition

Introduction

Article
Lessons from an escalation prediction competition
Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco & Michael Colaresi
Pages: 521-554
Published online: 28 Jun 2022
AbstractforLessons from an escalation prediction competition | Full Text | References | PDF (3.3 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
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Articles

Article
Forecasting conflict using a diverse machine-learning ensemble: Ensemble averaging with multiple tree-based algorithms and variance promoting data configurations
Felix Ettensperger
Pages: 555-578
Published online: 01 Dec 2021
AbstractforForecasting conflict using a diverse machine-learning ensemble: Ensemble averaging with multiple tree-based algorithms and variance promoting data configurations | Full Text | References | PDF (2.5 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
  • 358 Views
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Article
Using past violence and current news to predict changes in violence
Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh
Pages: 579-596
Published online: 10 May 2022
AbstractforUsing past violence and current news to predict changes in violence | Full Text | References | PDF (2.5 MB) | EPUB
  • 534 Views
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Article
Predicting escalating and de-escalating violence in Africa using Markov models
David Randahl & Johan Vegelius
Pages: 597-613
Published online: 17 Mar 2022
AbstractforPredicting escalating and de-escalating violence in Africa using Markov models | Full Text | References | PDF (1.8 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
  • 1610 Views
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Article
Recurrent neural networks for conflict forecasting
Iris Malone
Pages: 614-632
Published online: 11 Jan 2022
AbstractforRecurrent neural networks for conflict forecasting | Full Text | References | PDF (1.9 MB) | EPUB
  • 600 Views
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Article
A shape-based approach to conflict forecasting
Thomas Chadefaux
Pages: 633-648
Published online: 30 Dec 2021
AbstractforA shape-based approach to conflict forecasting | Full Text | References | PDF (2.1 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
  • 366 Views
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Article
Forecasting change in conflict fatalities with dynamic elastic net
Fulvio Attinà, Marcello Carammia & Stefano M. Iacus
Pages: 649-677
Published online: 08 Aug 2022
AbstractforForecasting change in conflict fatalities with dynamic elastic net | Full Text | References | PDF (3.7 MB) | EPUB
  • 305 Views
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Article
Click, click boom: Using Wikipedia data to predict changes in battle-related deaths
Christian Oswald & Daniel Ohrenhofer
Pages: 678-696
Published online: 29 Apr 2022
AbstractforClick, click boom: Using Wikipedia data to predict changes in battle-related deaths | Full Text | References | PDF (1.9 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
  • 321 Views
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Article
Challenging the status quo: Predicting violence with sparse decision-making data
Konstantin Bätz, Ann-Cathrin Klöckner & Gerald Schneider
Pages: 697-713
Published online: 24 Mar 2022
AbstractforChallenging the status quo: Predicting violence with sparse decision-making data | Full Text | References | PDF (1.8 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
  • 1393 Views
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Article
Forecasting conflict in Africa with automated machine learning systems
Vito D’Orazio & Yu Lin
Pages: 714-738
Published online: 15 Jan 2022
AbstractforForecasting conflict in Africa with automated machine learning systems | Full Text | References | PDF (2.7 MB) | EPUB
  • 2929 Views
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Article
High resolution conflict forecasting with spatial convolutions and long short-term memory
Benjamin J. Radford
Pages: 739-758
Published online: 15 Mar 2022
AbstractforHigh resolution conflict forecasting with spatial convolutions and long short-term memory | Full Text | References | PDF (2.5 MB) | EPUB
  • 272 Views
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Article
Predicting political violence using a state-space model
Andreas Lindholm, Johannes Hendriks, Adrian Wills & Thomas B. Schön
Pages: 759-777
Published online: 21 Jul 2022
AbstractforPredicting political violence using a state-space model | Full Text | References | PDF (2.4 MB) | EPUB
  • 287 Views
  • 3 CrossRef citations
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Article
The role of governmental weapons procurements in forecasting monthly fatalities in intrastate conflicts: A semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model
Cornelius Fritz, Marius Mehrl, Paul W. Thurner & Göran Kauermann
Pages: 778-799
Published online: 29 Nov 2021
AbstractforThe role of governmental weapons procurements in forecasting monthly fatalities in intrastate conflicts: A semiparametric hierarchical hurdle model | Full Text | References | PDF (2.5 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
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Article
Conflict forecasting with event data and spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks
Patrick T. Brandt, Vito D’Orazio, Latifur Khan, Yi-Fan Li, Javier Osorio & Marcus Sianan
Pages: 800-822
Published online: 14 Mar 2022
AbstractforConflict forecasting with event data and spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks | Full Text | References | PDF (2.9 MB) | EPUB
  • 2887 Views
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Article
Employing local peacekeeping data to forecast changes in violence
Lisa Hultman, Maxine Leis & Desirée Nilsson
Pages: 823-840
Published online: 07 Apr 2022
AbstractforEmploying local peacekeeping data to forecast changes in violence | Full Text | References | PDF (3 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
  • 1106 Views
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Article
Predicting (de-)escalation of sub-national violence using gradient boosting: Does it work?
Jonas Vestby, Jürgen Brandsch, Vilde Bergstad Larsen, Peder Landsverk & Andreas Forø Tollefsen
Pages: 841-859
Published online: 08 Mar 2022
AbstractforPredicting (de-)escalation of sub-national violence using gradient boosting: Does it work? | Full Text | References | PDF (2.7 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
  • 1132 Views
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Conclusion

Article
United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition
Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch & Nils B. Weidmann
Pages: 860-896
Published online: 08 Mar 2022
AbstractforUnited they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition | Full Text | References | PDF (5.7 MB) | EPUB | Supplemental
  • 2837 Views
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Correction

Correction
Correction
Pages: iii-v
Published online: 26 Oct 2022
First Page PreviewforCorrection | Full Text | PDF (212.6 KB) | EPUB
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