Scenarios to promote territorial innovation systems in agri-food value chains: case of cocoa in Colombia

References

• Abbott, P. C., T. J. Benjamin, G. R. Burniske, M. M. Croft, M. Fenton, C. R. Kelly, and M. D. Wilcox. 2018. An Analysis of the Supply Chain of Cacao in Colombia. Cali: United States Agency for International Development – USAID. 208 p.
   Google Scholar
• Argota, R. C. 2017. “Desarrollo socio-económico regional: Impactos de la minería artesanal en el Bajo Cauca antioqueño.” Revista Internacional de Cooperación y Desarrollo 4 (1): 46–61. https://doi.org/10.21500/23825014.3116.
   Google Scholar
• Asheim, B., H. Smith, and C. Oughton. 2011. “Regional Innovation Systems: Theory, Empirics and Policy.” Regional Studies 45 (7): 875–891. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2011.596701.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Audouin, S., L. Gazull, and D. Gautier. 2018. “Territory Matters: Exploring the Functioning of an Innovation System Through the Filter of Local Territorial Practices – the Example of the Adoption of Cashew Trees in Burkina Faso.” Journal of Rural Studies 63:130–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.08.007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Barati, A. A., H. Azadi, M. D. Pour, P. Lebailly, and M. Qafori. 2019. “Determining Key Agricultural Strategic Factors Using AHP-MICMAC.” Sustainability 11 (14): 39–47. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11143947.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Belton, I., A. MacDonald, G. Wright, and I. Hamlin. 2019. “Improving the Practical Application of the Delphi Method in Group-Based Judgment: A Six-Step Prescription for a Well-Founded and Defensible Process.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 147:72–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.07.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bergek, A., M. Hekkert, and S. Jacobsson. 2008. “Functions in Innovation Systems: A Framework for Analysing Energy System Dynamics and Identifying Goals for System-Building Activities by Entrepreneurs and Policy Makers.” In Innovation for a Low Carbon Economy: Economic, Institutional and Management Approaches, edited by Christine Oughton, Jonathan Köhler, and Timothy J. Foxon, 79–111. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
   Google Scholar
• Bishop, P., A. Hines, and T. Collins. 2007. “The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques.” Foresight 9 (1): 5–25. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680710727516.
   Google Scholar
• Blind, K. 2008. “Regulatory Foresight: Methodologies and Selected Applications.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75 (4): 496–516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.02.004.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Bonfiglio, A., B. Camaioni, S. Coderoni, R. Esposti, F. Pagliacci, and F. Sotte. 2017. “Are Rural Regions Prioritizing Knowledge Transfer and Innovation? Evidence from Rural Development Policy Expenditure Across the EU Space.” Journal of Rural Studies 53:78–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.05.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Börjeson, L., M. Höjer, K. H. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, and G. Finnveden. 2006. “Scenario Types and Techniques: Towards a User’s Guide.” Futures 38 (7): 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Brown, S. 2013. “One Hundred Years of Labor Control: Violence, Militancy, and the Fairtrade Banana Commodity Chain in Colombia.” Environment and Planning 45 (11): 2572–2591. https://doi.org/10.1068/a45691.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Busse, M., W. Schwerdtner, R. Siebert, A. Doernberg, A. Kuntosch, B. König, and W. Bokelmann. 2015. “Analysis of Animal Monitoring Technologies in Germany from an Innovation System Perspective.” Agricultural Systems 138:55–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2015.05.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Capello, R., and C. Lenzi. 2013. “Territorial Patterns of Innovation: A Taxonomy of Innovative Regions in Europe.” He Annals of Regional Science 51 (1): 119–154. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-012-0539-8.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Celestina, M. 2016. “‘Displacement’ Before Displacement: Time, Place and the Case of Rural Urabá.” Journal of Latin American Studies 48 (2): 367–390. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022216X15001212.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Chang, Y., and M. Chen. 2004. “Comparing Approaches to Systems of Innovation: The Knowledge Perspective.” Technology in Society 26 (1): 17–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2003.10.002.
   Google Scholar
• Contini, C., M. Gabbai, L. O. Zorini, and B. Pugh. 2012. “Participatory Scenarios for Exploring the Future: Insights from Cherry Farming in South Patagonia.” Outlook on Agriculture 41 (2): 125–131. https://doi.org/10.5367/oa.2012.0086.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Cooke, P. 2001. “Regional Innovation Systems, Clusters, and the Knowledge Economy.” Industrial and Corporate Change 10 (4): 945–974. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/10.4.945.
   Google Scholar
• Crawford, A., R. Nettle, M. Paine, and C. Kabore. 2007. “Farms and Learning Partnerships in Farming Systems Projects: A Response to the Challenges of Complexity in Agricultural Innovation.” The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension 13 (3): 191–207. https://doi.org/10.1080/13892240701427573.
   Google Scholar
• Dolinska, A., and P. d’Aquino. 2016. “Farmers as Agents in Innovation Systems. Empowering Farmers for Innovation Through Communities of Practice.” Agricultural Systems 142:122–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2015.11.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Doloreux, D., and S. Parto. 2005. “Regional Innovation Systems: Current Discourse and Unresolved Issues.” Technology in Society 27 (2): 133–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2005.01.002.
   Google Scholar
• Eastwood, C., L. Klerkx, and R. Nettle. 2017. “Dynamics and Distribution of Public and Private Research and Extension Roles for Technological Innovation and Diffusion: Case Studies of the Implementation and Adaptation of Precision Farming Technologies.” Journal of Rural Studies 49:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.11.008.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Echeverri, R., and O. Sotomayor. 2010. Estrategias de gestión territorial rural en las políticas públicas en Iberoamérica. Documentos de Proyectos, No 376 (LC/W.376) (93 p.). Santiago de Chile: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
   Google Scholar
• Edquist, C. 1997. Systems of Innovation: Technologies, Institutions and Organizations. London: Pinter.
   Google Scholar
• Escobar, S., M. Santander, P. Useche, C. Contreras, and J. Rodríguez. 2020. “Aligning Strategic Objectives with Research and Development Activities in a Soft Commodity Sector: A Technological Plan for Colombian Cocoa Producers.” Agriculture 10 (5). https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture10050141.
   Google Scholar
• FEDECACAO. 2019. Fedecacao (datos de producción). Obtenido de. http://www.fedecacao.com.co/portal/index.php/es/2015-02-12-17-20-59/nacionales.
   Google Scholar
• Furmankiewicz, M., Á Macken-Walsh, and J. Stefańska. 2014. “Territorial Governance, Networks and Power: Cross-Sectoral Partnerships in Rural Poland.” Geografiska Annaler, Series B: Human Geography 96 (4): 345–361. https://doi.org/10.1111/geob.12056.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gobernación de Antioquia. 2019. Plan de ordenamiento territorial agropecuario de Antioquia. Medellín: Gobernación de Antioquia.
   Google Scholar
• Godet, Michel. 2000. “The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65 (1): 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00120-1.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Godet, M. 2005. Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool. London: Economica.
   Google Scholar
• Godet, M., and F. Roubelat. 1996. “Creating the Future: The Use and Misuse of Scenarios.” Long Range Planning 29 (2): 164–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(96)00004-0.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gómez-Limón, J. A., A. Gómez-Ramos, and G. Sanchez Fernandez. 2009. “Foresight Analysis of Agricultural Sector at Regional Level.” Futures 41 (5): 313–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2008.11.007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Gutiérrez García, G. A., I. Gutiérrez-Montes, H. E. Hernández Núñez, J. C. Suárez Salazar, and F. Casanoves. 2020. “Relevance of Local Knowledge in Decision-Making and Rural Innovation: A Methodological Proposal for Leveraging Participation of Colombian Cocoa Producers.” Journal of Rural Studies 75:119–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.01.012.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hamdouch, A., and M. H. Depret. 2009. “Surveying the Literature on Territorial Innovation Systems: A Suggested Interpretation Framework.” SSRN Working Papers Series. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1524129.
   Google Scholar
• Hekkert, M. P., R. Harmsen, and A. de Jong. 2007. “Explaining the Rapid Diffusion of Dutch Cogeneration by Innovation System Functioning.” Energy Policy 39 (9): 4677–4687. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.02.018.
   Google Scholar
• Hekkert, M. P., and S. Negro. 2009. “Functions of Innovation Systems as a Framework to Understand Sustainable Technological Change: Empirical Evidence for Earlier Claims.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 76 (4): 584–594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.04.013.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hermans, F., F. Geerling-Eiff, J. Potters, and L. Klerkx. 2019. “Public-Private Partnerships as Systemic Agricultural Innovation Policy Instruments – Assessing Their Contribution to Innovation System Function Dynamics.” NJAS – Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences 88 (1): 76–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2018.10.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hermans, F., M. Stuiver, P. J. Beers, and K. Kok. 2013. “The Distribution of Roles and Functions for Upscaling and Outscaling Innovations in Agricultural Innovation Systems.” Agricultural Systems 115:117–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.09.006.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Hilkens, A., J. I. Reid, L. Klerkx, and D. I. Gray. 2018. “Money Talk: How Relations Between Farmers and Advisors Around Financial Management are Shaped.” Journal of Rural Studies 63:83–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2018.09.002.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Klerkx, L., B. van Mierlo, and C. Leeuwis. 2012. “Evolution of Systems Approaches to Agricultural Innovation: Concepts, Analysis and Interventions.” In Farming Systems Research Into the 21st Century: The New Dynamic, edited by Benoît Dedieu, David Gibbon, and Ika Darnhofer, 457–483. Dordrecht: Springer.
   Google Scholar
• Kozicka, M., F. Tacconi, D. Horna, and E. Gotor. 2018. Forecasting Cocoa Yields for 2050. Rome: Bioversity International.
   Google Scholar
• Lafourcade, B., and P. Chapuy. 2000. “Scenarios and Actors’ Strategies: The Case of the Agri-Foodstuff Sector.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65 (1): 67–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0040-1625(99)00128-6.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Lamprinopoulou, C., A. Renwick, L. Klerkx, F. Hermans, and D. Roep. 2014. “Application of an Integrated Systemic Framework for Analysing Agricultural Innovation Systems and Informing Innovation Policies: Comparing the Dutch and Scottish Agrifood Sectors.” Agricultural Systems 129:40–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.05.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Läpple, D., A. Renwick, J. Cullinan, and F. Thorne. 2016. “What Drives Innovation in the Agricultural Sector? A Spatial Analysis of Knowledge Spillovers.” Land Use Policy 56:238–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.04.032.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Laursen, K., F. Masciarelli, and A. Prencipe. 2012. “Regions Matter: How Localized Social Capital Affects Innovation and External Knowledge Acquisition.” Organization Science 23 (1): 177–193. https://doi.org/10.2307/41429024.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• MADR (Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural). 2020. Cifras sectoriales: Cadena de Cacao en Colombia. Bogotá: MADR.
   Google Scholar
• MADR (Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural). 2021. Cifras sectoriales: Cadena de cacao. Bogotá: MADR.
   Google Scholar
• Markard, J., M. Stadelmann, and B. Truffer. 2009. “Prospective Analysis of Technological Innovation Systems: Identifying Technological and Organizational Development Options for Biogas in Switzerland.” Research Policy 38 (4): 655–667. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2009.01.013.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Minh, T. T. 2019. “Unpacking the Systemic Problems and Blocking Mechanisms of a Regional Agricultural Innovation System: An Integrated Regional-Functional-Structural Analysis.” Agricultural Systems 173:268–280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.03.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Mojica, F. J. 2005. La construcción del futuro: concepto y modelo de prospectiva estratégica, territorial y tecnológica. Bogotá: Convenio Andrés Bello en coedición con la Universidad Externado de Colombia.
   Google Scholar
• Morgan, K. J. 2004. “The Exaggerated Death of Geography: Learning, Proximity and Territorial Innovation Systems.” Journal of Economic Geography 4 (1): 3–21. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/4.1.3.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moschitz, H., D. Roep, G. Brunori, and T. Tisenkopfs. 2015. “Learning and Innovation Networks for Sustainable Agriculture: Processes of Co-Evolution, Joint Reflection and Facilitation.” The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension 21 (1): 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1080/1389224X.2014.991111.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moulaert, F., and A. Mehmood. 2010. “Analysing Regional Development and Policy: A Structural – Realist Approach.” Regional Studies 44 (1): 103–118. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400802251478.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Moulaert, F., and F. Sekia. 2003. “Territorial Innovation Models: A Critical Survey.” Regional Studies 37 (3): 289–302. https://doi.org/10.1080/0034340032000065442.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Oliveira, P. M., and M. M. Natário. 2016. “Territorial Innovation Systems and Strategies of Collective Efficiency: The Case of Tagus Valley Agro-Food Complex.” European Journal of Innovation Management 19 (3): 362–382. https://doi.org/10.1108/09564230910978511.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ortiz-Guerrero, C. E. 2013. “The New Regionalism. Policy Implications for Rural Regions.” Cuadernos de Desarrollo Rural 10 (70): 47–67.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ortiz-Guerrero, Cesar E., M. D. M. Delgado-Serrano, M. Rojas, S. London, P. Vanwildemeersch, and R. Escalante Semerena. 2016. “Adapting Prospective Structural Analysis to Strengthen Sustainable Management and Capacity Building in Community-Based Natural Resource Management Contexts.” Ecology and Society 21 (2): 36. https://doi.org/10.5751/es-08505-210236.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ortiz, O., R. Orrego, W. Pradel, P. Gildemacher, R. Castillo, R. Otiniano, and I. Kahiu. 2013. “Insights into Potato Innovation Systems in Bolivia, Ethiopia, Peru and Uganda.” Agricultural Systems 114:73–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.08.007.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Pamuk, H., E. Bulte, A. Adekunle, and A. Diagne. 2015. “Decentralised innovation systems and poverty reduction: experimental evidence from Central Africa.” European Review of Agricultural Economics 42 (1): 99–127. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbu007
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Ramírez-Gómez, C. J., J. R. Velasquez, and J. Aguilar-Avila. 2020. “Trust Networks and Innovation Dynamics of Small Farmers in Colombia: An Approach from Territorial System of Agricultural Innovation.” Revista de La Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias UNCuyo 2 (52): 253–266.
   Google Scholar
• Reed, M. S., A. J. Dougill, and M. J. Taylor. 2007. “Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge for Adaptation to Land Degradation: Kalahari Rangeland Management Options.” Land Degradation & Development 18 (3): 249–268. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.777.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Schejtman, A., and J. Berdegué. 2004. Desarrollo Territorial Rural. Edited by Centro Latinoamericano para el Desarrollo Rural-Rimisp, Vol. 1. Santiago de Chile. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0250-71612006000100006.
   Google Scholar
• Schut, M., L. Klerkx, J. Rodenburg, J. Kayeke, M. Raboanarielina, P. Adegbola, and L. Bastiaans. 2014. “RAAIS: Rapid Appraisal of Agricultural Innovation Systems (Part I). A Diagnostic Tool for Integrated Analysis of Complex Problems and Innovation Capacity.” Agricultural Systems 132:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.08.009.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Spers, R. A. G., J. T. C. Wright, and A. Amedomar. 2013. “Scenarios for the Milk Production Chain in Brazil in 2020.” Revista de Administração 48 (2): 254–267. https://doi.org/10.5700/rausp1086.
   Google Scholar
• Teixeira, P. J. P. L., D. P. de Toledo Thomazella, and G. A. G. Pereira. 2015. “Time for Chocolate: Current Understanding and New Perspectives on Cacao Witches’ Broom Disease Research.” PLoS Pathogens 11 (10): e1005130. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1005130.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Tödtling, F., and M. Trippl. 2005. “One Size Fits All? Towards a Differentiated Regional Innovation Policy Approach.” Research Policy 34 (8): 1203–1219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2005.01.018.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Toillier, A., S. Mathé, A. Saley Moussa, and G. Faure. 2022. “How to Assess Agricultural Innovation Systems in a Transformation Perspective: A Delphi Consensus Study.” Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension 28 (2): 163–185. https://doi.org/10.1080/1389224X.2021.1953548.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Truffer, B., J. P. Voß, and K. Konrad. 2008. “Mapping Expectations for System Transformations: Lessons from Sustainability Foresight in German Utility Sectors.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75 (9): 1360–1372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.04.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Turner, J. A., L. Klerkx, K. Rijswijk, T. Williams, and T. Barnard. 2016. “Systemic Problems Affecting Co-Innovation in the New Zealand Agricultural Innovation System: Identification of Blocking Mechanisms and Underlying Institutional Logics.” NJAS – Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences 76 (1): 99–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2015.12.001.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Villacorta, P. J., A. D. Masegosa, D. Castellanos, P. Novoa, and D. A. Pelta. 2011. “Sensitivity Analysis in the Scenario Method: A Multi-Objective Approach.” In International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications, November 22–24, University of Granada, Granada, Spain.
   Google Scholar
• Villa Cuastumal, M. R., E. G. Martínez Bustamante, J. R. Cartagena Valenzuela, O. A. Rodríguez Rodríguez, and N. W. Osorio. 2017. “Characterization of Soils Cultivated with Rubber in the Colombian Bajo Cauca Antioqueño Region.” Revista Facultad Nacional de Agronomía Medellín 70 (2): 8155–8167. https://doi.org/10.15446/rfna.v70n2.64520.
   Google Scholar
• Vivanco-Aranda, M., F. J. Mojica, and F. J. Martínez-Cordero. 2011. “Foresight Analysis of Tilapia Supply Chains (Sistema Producto) in Four States in Mexico: Scenarios and Strategies for 2018.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78 (3): 481–497. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.05.005.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wellbrock, W., and D. Roep. 2015. “The Learning Rural Area Framework: A Heuristic Tool to Investigate Institutional Arrangements Which Support Collaboration in Rural Areas.” Sociologia Ruralis 55 (1): 106–124. https://doi.org/10.1111/soru.12049.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Wellbrock, W., D. Roep, and J. Wiskerke. 2012. “An Integrated Perspective on Rural Regional Learning.” European Countryside 4 (1): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10091-012-0010-y.
   Google Scholar
• Wieczorek, A. J., and M. P. Hekkert. 2012. “Systemic Instruments for Systemic Innovation Problems: A Framework for Policy Makers and Innovation Scholars.” Science and Public Policy 39 (1): 74–87. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scr008.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• World Bank. 2012. Agricultural Innovation Systems: An Investment Sourcebook. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-8684-2.
   Google Scholar
• Wossen, T., T. Abdoulaye, A. Alene, M. G. Haile, S. Feleke, A. Olanrewaju, and V. Manyong. 2017. “Impacts of Extension Access and Cooperative Membership on Technology Adoption and Household Welfare.” Journal of Rural Studies 54:223–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.06.022.
   PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar
• Zartha Sossa, J. W., W. Halal, and R. Hernandez Zarta. 2019. “Delphi Method: Analysis of Rounds, Stakeholder and Statistical Indicators.” Foresight 21 (5): 525–544. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-11-2018-0095.
   Web of Science ®Google Scholar