Potential impact of scaling adaptation strategies for drought stress: a case of drought-tolerant maize varieties in Tanzania

ABSTRACT

Drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) offer hope as an adaptation strategy for farmers facing increasing frequency of droughts in sub-Saharan Africa. Adoption of these varieties also offers hope to enhance sustainability in the agricultural production system. However, these varieties are not yet widely cultivated, and the potential economic benefits not fully understood. This study examines the scalability of DTMVs in Tanzania under three scenarios: (1) scalability conditional on knowledge of DTMVs; (ii) scalability conditional on (physical) seed availability in addition to awareness; and (iii) scalability conditional on seed affordability in addition to awareness and (physical) seed availability. The study uses household production and consumption data from major regions in Tanzania. The results from the economic surplus model indicate that by 2032, the adoption of DTMVs could generate between US$ 373 million and US$ 499 million in cumulative benefits for both producers and consumers. Such benefits could potentially lift up to 1.6 million people out of poverty by 2032. It is estimated that consumers would get 40% of the benefits and producers 60%, with the largest benefits occurring in the major maize-producing regions of Mbeya, Rukwa, Ruvuma, Mwanza, Arusha, and Kagera. Consumers in Dar es Salaam would also benefit significantly from the price reductions resulting from increased production. The largest returns on investment would occur in Dodoma, Geita, Simiyu, Singida, and Kagera. These findings justify the investment of both public and private funds to support the scaling of DTMVs in Tanzania.

KEYWORDS:

• Drought-tolerant maize varieties
• scalability
• economic impact
• Tanzania

Acknowledgments

We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT) for supporting our study through the Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa (STMA) project funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number OPP1134248).

Availability of data and material

Authors do not have the right to share the data. However, it will be made available to the reader upon request.

Consent to participate

Each questionnaire of this study had a front-page section that required informed consent for interview and publication before the interview could proceed. Interviewers were trained and under instructions to read aloud the consent statement to each interviewee before the interview could advance. Participants were informed that they were under no obligation to answer any questions, or they could stop the interview at any time without giving any reasons and ask that any partial data recorded to be removed from the records. This way, the survey was consistent with CIMMYT-IREC policies and those generally applied in low-risk social science research.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Ethics approval

This study is based on survey methods involving interviewing farmers to answer questions about their socioeconomic and farming activities. Like all socioeconomic surveys (or any data collection that involves collecting data from family or community representatives) Institutional Research Ethics Committee (IREC) of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT) classified it as low risk study. Entire research methods were performed in accordance with the relevant guidelines and regulations issued by CIMMYT institutional research ethics committee (IREC).

Notes

1 A detailed explanation of the identification of different categories of households, and their status in terms of access to information and seed, the assumptions about the distributions of the treatment status variables (exposure, and access to seed at affordable prices) and their relationship to the adoption outcomes as well as to the estimation strategy for potential for scalability is discussed in Simtowe et al. (2019a and 2021).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [grant no OPP1134248].