Contribution, prospects and trends of livestock production in sub-Saharan Africa: a review

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to deliver summarized information on livestock production, trends and prospects to the stakeholders/beneficiaries, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It is always suggested that around 70–80% of agricultural land is required to produce both pasture and feeds. The African livestock sector contributes about 30–80% to its Agricultural Gross Domestic Products. From the world's total, around 85% of livestock keepers are found in SSA countries. Although it produces only 2.8% of the world's meat and milk outputs, SSA contributes more than 14% of the world's livestock resources. By 2050, a projected demand for poultry meat, in the selected countries of SSA, will increase by 214%, followed by pork (161%). Consequently, by 2050 projected rates of the annual consumption of both pork and poultry meat will gain the highest growth rate, followed by the egg in Africa. After 27 years, the worldwide consumption rate of animal-based food is expected to rise by 80%. As urbanization increases, both livestock-based and processed foods are favoured. Additionally, increasing demand for the animal-derived products presents an opportunity for livestock keepers. However, the local production and demand for livestock products, mainly in SSA, have not been matched. Therefore, countries in the region are either consuming inadequate protein-source foods or remain net importers. To improve production, intervention needs to focus on the integrated elements of animal husbandry. Intensification is also another option to produce more animal products while efficiently using natural resources. Feed-resource might be efficiently used when combining some extensive and intensive livestock production systems. Moreover, feed efficiency might be improved when matching the livestock species with that of a compatible feed resource and the types. In converting caloris and proteins of the feeds into edible food, beef production is less efficient than that of poultry and pigs. It is concluded that livestock production plays a great role in SSA's socio-economy and it has also a bright future to be improved.

KEYWORDS:

• Animal products
• feed demands and supply
• livestock economy
• per-capita protein consumption
• productivity
• intensification
• sub-Saharan Africa
• socio-economy

Introduction

Poverty is influencing most African countries, more than elsewhere in the developing world, and malnutrition has also been a long-standing challenge with uneven progress across the region (Claude Saha, 2008). And yet, agriculture is the greatest contributor to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s economy (Dercon & Gollin, 2014). This agricultural economy generally employs around 65–70% of Africa's labour force (Roseboom et al., 2016). However, agriculture is marked by its low productivity in the region, with little application of science and technology (Chauvin et al., 2012).

A large amount of livestock (e.g. 20–25% of the world's ruminants) are found in SSA, but their levels of productivity vary due to lack of consistent improvements in the main factors (i.e. factors that are negatively affecting the productivity), such as disease, poor feeds and breeds (Millar & Photakoun, 2008). The socio-economic contribution of livestock to the society is also multifaceted. Livestock greatly serves the SSA and it is economically important (Philipsson et al., 2017). Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) added that the contribution of the livestock sector has continuously been exceeding that of the crop sector in SSA, but the levels of consuming animal products are low, with only minimal changes over the last 30 years.

Despite the fact that the demand for livestock products in SSA is increasing rapidly, it isn't currently matched by similar growth in local production (Herrero et al., 2014). On the other hand, Garnett and Finch (2016) reported the forecasted expectation of the world's gradual shifting of consuming customs from crops to foods of animal origin. The rapidly growing world population will generally be consuming two-thirds more animal proteins by 2050 than it does today (Salvage, 2011). Livestock production is, therefore, one of those centrally and strategically important sectors to improve the well-being of the society in the region. However, livestock production improvement will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly for land and water (Mengesha, 2012; Thornton, 2010;).

Local production of livestock derived-products (e.g. milk, meat and egg) is lagging compared to the skyrocketing demands in SSA countries. Improving the productivity of farm animals may be considered a strategic solution to this bottleneck problem. Delivering clear information regarding the contribution and trends of livestock production may be one of the technical tools that the stakeholders/beneficiaries are going to use in their long-or short-term plans. The aim of this review work is, therefore, to systematically review, summarize and convey very relevant information to the beneficiaries.

Sub-Saharan Africa and livestock production

The rapidly growing population, urbanization, rural diversification, structural transformation (from farm to nonfarm employment) and growth of the middle class are considered mega-trends that can shape agriculture, including livestock development in SSA (Claude Saha, 2008). One of the challenges that Africa could meet in the future is to feed 1.5 and 2 billion people by 2030 and 2050, respectively (Blein et al., 2017). Although agricultural production has increased steadily, in the last 30 years, the population was also doubled (on average) and tripled (in urban areas) in Africa (Blein et al., 2017). The African continent is rapidly urbanizing, which favours the nutritional transition that is being featured by the increasing demand for livestock-based and processed foods (van Berkum et al., 2017). The global demand for meat is expected to double over the next 27 years, which will indirectly create an increased demand for feed supply (Ritchie et al., 2017).

Poverty is very well known in SSA and most of the extremely poor people are expected to live in the rural areas of SSA (Realities, 2011). The Sub-Saharan Africa region always relies on agricultural activities, which has been represented as the most vulnerable region, in regard to global climate change (Ibe & Amikuzuno, 2019).

The agricultural sector has higher shares of gross domestic product (GDP) in most countries of SSA and its output has also grown markedly over the past decades, but it remains the most food-insecure region in the world (Claude Saha, 2008).

Livestock provides a wide variety of goods and services that can generate income and support the livelihoods of millions of poor people in the developing world. Ehui et al. (2002) reported that livestock production contributes about 35% of the agricultural GDP in SSA. Approximately, SSA accounts for 14% of the world's livestock resources, but it produces only about 2.8% of the world's meat and milk outputs (Otte & Chilonda, 2002). Cattle and small ruminants comprise 72% and 16%, respectively of the total tropical livestock units (TLU) in SSA (Otte & Chilonda, 2002). Lack of access to technology and information, poor infrastructure, lack of access to markets, lack of controlling animal diseases and environmental factors play key roles in deterring sustainable smallholder livestock farming (Gwaka & Dubihlela, 2020).

Population, distribution and productivity of the livestock

Around 19.6 billion chickens, 1.4 billion cattle and 980 million pigs are globally being raised as most livestock species (Robinson et al., 2014). African livestock populations in 2018 were 2 billion poultry, 438 million goats, 384 million sheep, 356 million cattle, 40.5 million pigs, almost 31 million camels and 38 million equines (Panel, 2020). Sub-Saharan Africa is home to approximately ¼ of the global livestock population and shares around 16% of the world's cattle, but it is producing only 6 and 2.6% of the global meat and milk, respectively (Otte & Chilonda, 2002).

Some common species of livestock and their distributions, in Africa are shown in Figure 1. The largest dairy animals are found in Eastern Africa. Poultry is also almost equally found in Central and Southern Africa. Western Africa is leading with the greatest number of sheep and goats followed by Southern and Eastern Africa.

Figure 1. Some common species of livestock and their distributions, in Sub-Saharan Africa. Source: Oecd, F.A.O. (OECD, F.A.O, 2016).

According to Robinson et al. (2014) reports, cattle, sheep, goat and chicken populations in SSA were 191.4, 158.7, 182.0 and 700.0 million heads, respectively. East Africa is one of the most densely populated places, particularly with cattle (Jayne & Sanchez, 2021). Types of farm animals and breeds and their products can vary with varying countries and regions. The most common livestock types found in Africa are cattle, sheep, goats, donkeys, camels and poultry.

The highest livestock densities are mostly found in heavily populated areas. For example, the highest population and densities of cattle and goats are found in Eastern Africa (Jayne & Sanchez, 2021). Between 2000 and 2018, SSA achieved a higher rate of growth (4.3% per year) in agricultural values in the world compared to the world's average of 2.7% per year (Fuglie & Rada, 2013). Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats.

Generally, the livestock production system remains largely extensive, with pasture-based ruminant production, but the same authors also suggested that enhanced productivity is related to investments in agricultural research, wider adoption of new technologies and policy reforms (Pradere, 2014).

In developing countries, the livestock segment is commonly reacting to the rapidly growing demand for livestock products, but this demand looks stagnant in industrialized countries (Thornton, 2010). Therefore, depending on the economic status of the country or region, the livestock sector seems to be highly dynamic (Thornton, 2010). In contrast to this, Cardoso (2012) reported that livestock performance in the SSA region has decreased within the last 30 years. Fuglie and Rada (2013) also added that agricultural productivity in SSA remains low. One of the major reasons why only small amounts of animal products are available for human consumption in SSA may be the poor productivity of livestock. Pradere (2014) reported that prerequisites for improved livestock productivity include better public policies, enhanced research and reduced disease risks.

Western Africa is an exceptional region for livestock rearing, which has around 60 and 160 million heads of cattle and small ruminants, respectively. Not only these but this region has also around 400 million poultry (Claude Saha, 2008). Livestock production plays a key role in the economy of SSA, particularly in the Western African countries that provide 44% of agricultural GDP. The value of livestock production is smaller in Central Africa compared to other parts of Africa (Claude Saha, 2008). The potential of animal production in SSA is still underexploited due to a persistent great dependence on imports of animal products.

Poultry is contributing a substantial amount of livestock production that ranges between 12% in Eastern Africa to 45% in both Central and Southern Africa. By 2050, the aforementioned poultry share is also projected to increase by 22% (Thornton, 2010). The expected increase in the numbers of livestock species in both SSA and the world across the years (from 200 up to 2050) is shown in Table 1. By 2050, the highest increase is expected to be in the world's poultry population (114%) compared to 84% in SSA whereas, the lowest increase is expected to be in the world's pig population (7%) compared to 8% in SSA (Table 1).

Table 1. Comparison of cattle, sheep and goats, pig and poultry numbers of SSA and the Globe.

Species of Animals	Years
	2000	2010	2020	2030	2040	2050
Cattle:
SSA	0.179	0.219	0.253	0.273	0.278	0.270
Globe	1.498	1.844	2.170	2.423	2.593	2.636
Sheep and Goats:
SSA	0.271	0.346	0.406	0.443	0.459	0.457
Globe	1.707	2.061	2.359	2.566	2.677	2.673
Pigs:
SSA	0.019	0.024	0.029	0.032	0.034	0.034
Globe	0.912	1.038	1.115	1.121	1.076	0.978
Poultry:
SSA	0.784	0.991	1.170	1.306	1.407	1.445
Globe	16.178	20.350	24.760	28.819	32.423	34.551

Source: Adopted from Rosegrant et al. (2009) as cited by Thornton and Herrero (2010).

Livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa

The majority of households in the rural areas of SSA are livestock keepers. Approximately 70% of rural poor people in SSA depends on livestock and related activities (Otte et al., 2012; Popkin & Du, 2003). This region has around 200 million livestock owners and most of them utilize the rangelands (Mapfumo et al., 2021). About 20% of the world's population has smallholder livestock owners, who hold most of the agricultural lands in SSA (McDermott et al., 2010). These livestock keepers in SSA are extremely poor and around 85% of them are found in this region (de Glanville et al., 2020).

Livestock are usually used as a coping mechanism for vulnerability and food insecurity. However, livestock keepers in SSA face a growing range of pressures such as climate change, land loss, restrictive policies and population increase (Mapfumo et al., 2021). The National Research Council (NRC, 2009) agreed that farmers in SSA are being faced with tremendous challenges, but it was also suggested that by improving some key sectors such as marketing structures, scientific knowledge and technology of agricultural productivity can be improved.

A rapidly growing demand for meat and milk, in the developing world, presents a great opportunity for millions of rural livestock holders (Ahuja & Redmond, 2004). McDermott et al. (2010) reported that smallholders are competitive in ruminant systems, particularly in dairy, because of the availability of family labour and also due to the ability of these ruminants to exploit available lower quality roughages.

Heterogeneity (both males and females) is mostly common in livestock keepers. Therefore, Pica-Ciamarra et al. (2014) suggested that clustering them into homogenous groups is useful to guide policy and investment decisions. Oxby (Shaw et al., 2014) also suggested the importance of involving livestock keepers in the management of service and improvement programmes. Until 2050, smallholders will continue to be the main producers of ruminant animals. However, non-ruminant animals, including poultry and pigs, will go through the industrial production system (Herrero et al., 2014).

Feed resources and utilization

These days, feed-food completion is a serious problem for SSA countries, in which their grain production is not self-sufficient (Mengesha, 2012). Mutibvu et al. (2012) from Zimbabwe reported that one of the challenges faced by livestock farmers is feed shortage. When the feed quality remains low, both the demand and price of the feed continue to rise (Duncan et al., 2010). Enahoro et al. (2019) added that the SSA's feed demand is generally expected to increase from 73.5 (2010) to 167.3 (2050) metric tonnes.

As income increases, the demand for animal products also increases. This trend will continue in many developing countries, which will lead to a higher feed demand (Bruinsma, 2003). Bruinsma (2003) also added that with an increasing demand for that of animal products, feed has become the first constraint for farmers to improve their livestock production. Much of Africa's livestock production is highly dependent on rain-fed fodders and pastures. Valbuena et al. (2015) reported that, as a result of both increasing demand and scarcity of alternative feeds, crop residue has become an essential resource for livestock keeping/production.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest area of permanent pasture and it also has a larger number of pastoralists than any other continent (Otte et al., 2019). However, the feed resources in SSA are inadequate in both quantity and quality, which cannot enable the animals to express their full productivity and genetic potentials, but considerable quantities of molasses, oilcake and fishmeal are still being exported or becoming wasted (Mengesha, 2012; Sadh et al., 2018). Oilseed production is greatly concentrated in the Western African region (Claude Saha, 2008). Sadh et al. (2018) also added that SSA is a major producer and a net exporter of agro-byproducts. The World-Bank (2012) also reported that enhancing the quality and quantity of animal feed is one of the most important factors of animal production in the process of intensification.

The availability of anti-nutritional factors, especially in leguminous plants, is one of the constraints that affect the utilization and quality of some feed sources. Non-ruminant animals are mainly affected by these anti-nutritional factors (Erdaw et al., 2016; Erdaw et al., 2017; Erdaw et al., 2018; Erdaw et al., 2018; Erdaw & Ts Beyene, 2018). Treating the raw feed ingredients, which are expected to contain ANF, with heat or by supplementing them with microbial enzymes, may be considered as the solutions.

The productivity of dairy in East Africa, for example, is constrained by the scarcity of quantity and quality of feed (Paul et al., 2020). Therefore, Thornton (2010) suggested that expanding the supply of feed grains will be essential to achieve an increased production of livestock products. Additionally, Babarinde et al. (2020) added that insects can alleviate food, feed and nutrition insecurity in SSA against the impacts of climate change.

Intensification of livestock farming

Sustainable intensification is generally considered as a recently emerged key concept for agricultural development, which is achieved without damaging the environment (Ramankutty et al., 2018). Tedeschi et al. (2015) also defined sustainable intensification as an approach that produces more outputs while efficiently using the natural resources and reducing negative impacts on the environment.

Livestock intensification is virtually a response to an increased demand for livestock products (Swanepoel et al., 2010). McDermott et al. (2010) also added that the growing demand for livestock products will, therefore, continue to be the main driver of intensification in developing countries. A commodity-oriented agricultural innovation that aims at sustainable intensification is likely to be a successful approach (Buerkert & Schlecht, 2020). But, Swanepoel et al. (2010) reported that although intensification offers opportunities for better incomes, it may also deny smallholders’ benefits from the multi-functionality of livestock production.

Sustainable intensification of the livestock system could yield the most significant benefits to the society. Pretty et al. (2018) also added that sustainable intensification offers synergistic opportunities for the co-production of agricultural and natural capital outcomes. Social and environmental welfare must be taken into account during sustaining intensification of smallholder livestock systems (Popkin & Du, 2003). Sustainable intensification of all livestock production systems and a selectively promoting of mono-gastric livestock production could result in an increased environmental efficiency in SSA (Herrero et al., 2014).

Local biomass and feed resource might also be efficiently used when combining extensive and intensive production systems in SSA (Pfeifer et al., 2021). Although the constraints still exist, the intensifying of crop-livestock farms in SSA, mainly in East Africa is undergoing (Kindu et al., 2014). Panel (2020) reported the need for perspective policies for SSA countries to encourage sustainable intensification of production with a selective focus on non-ruminant animals that could result in an increased environmental efficiency. As livestock production intensifies, the grain-crushing demand may also increase across the rest of the region. For instance, by 2025 the Zambian soybean production is projected to expand by an annual average of more than 5% (OECD, F.A.O, 2016).

Livestock and natural resources

Sustainable farming is always an advisable approach that enables addressing the challenges of meeting the needs of an increasingly growing population, in SSA (Ayantunde et al., 2018). The main challenge for SSA countries, while trying to improve the production of animal food products, is to sustain the natural resource.

Although livestock is essential for food and nutrition security in SSA (Philipsson et al., 2017), the sector is one of the largest users of agricultural land and has environmental implications (Alexandratos & Bruinsma, 2012). These authors also added that livestock production, in the future, will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water (Thornton, 2010).

Livestock are not only exploiting the dry lands, but are also indirectly adding values to the plant materials that can be used as animal feed but is not directly edible by humans (Popkin & Du, 2003). However, the same authors also added that livestock is already responsible for 14.5% of man-made greenhouse-gas emissions (Fuglie & Rada, 2013). But, Diao (2006) reported that livestock farming can have a positive role in the conservation of natural resources, for example, grazing can increase the dispersion of seeds for diversification.

Livestock production has increasingly been affected by many factors, such as competition for land, water, food and feed. An increase in livestock productivity has generally been driven mostly by animal science and technology (Thornton, 2010). Trying to satisfy an increasing and changing demand for animal source foods while sustaining the natural resource is one of the major challenges that the world agriculture is facing today (Adesogan et al., 2020).

Dynamic policy and interventions for the improvement of livestock production

Poverty reduction is an ongoing plan for most developing countries. Hence, livestock production is centrally and strategically necessary to improve the livelihoods of rural people in Africa (Lai, 2007). The African livestock sector contributes about 30–80% of the national agricultural GDP, and it has the potential to deliver agricultural-led growth (Lokosang et al., 2016). Furthermore, Lokosang et al. (2016) added that failure to transform the African livestock industry will negatively affect the local industries and employment opportunities. The full potential and contribution of the livestock sector in Africa has not been realized. Therefore, revision and further strengthening of the existing policies/programmes that govern the livestock sector appears to be critically important (Pica-Ciamarra et al., 2010).

Improving livestock production in SSA is being impaired by many factors, such as inadequate investment, a lack of both coherent strategies and supportive policies (Lai, 2007). Pica-Ciamarra et al. (2010) also added that the potential of the livestock sector in SSA has not been properly exploited because of the biased policy-makers, who have been giving priority to the staple crops. The SSA is the only region that has failed to improve agricultural productivity. This is due to underinvestment, poor infrastructure, insecure land tenure, unfavourable price policies and weak institutions (Schaffnit-Chatterjee et al., 2014).

Besides having national and regional strategic plans that to address critical issues in the livestock sector, a multilevel partnership between countries of the region is also required (Lai, 2007). An inclusive framework is also needed in identifying and targeting those production practices and policies that are locally appropriate, and of which can contribute to environmental sustainability, poverty alleviation and economic development (Thornton & Herrero, 2010).

In the process of intervention that is mainly focusing on the development of livestock, it needs to focus on the integrated elements of animal husbandry, such as feeding/nutrition, breeding and disease control that primarily underpin the households’ decision on production and consumption priority (Pica-Ciamarra et al., 2010). The livestock production system was thought to be transformed in SSA, but it is still unable to meet the consumers’ demand. Thus, food importation, by many African countries, will increase (Bodirsky et al., 2015).

Trends and prospects of livestock production and product consumption

From 1977 to 2012 the average world energy intake increased from 2370 to 2770 kcal/person/day, accompanied by a great shift in dietary composition, mainly from roots and tubers to both livestock products and vegetable oils (Garnett & Finch, 2016). Since 1981, the consumption of meat has annually been growing at the rate of 4.9% in developing countries; however, the consumption of animal products in SSA, in general, has stagnated and it is also sometimes falling in some countries (Garnett & Finch, 2016). The same authors added that the demand for animal products will increase in the future due to population growth rather than a major increase in per capita intake.

The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income improvements for the low-income groups (Latino et al., 2020). The average consumption level of animal products in SSA countries has been low in the past 30 years (Bongaarts et al., 2003). On the other hand, Kamuanga et al. (2008) reported that the demand for animal products, in SSA, has generally been increasing. For example, with that of an annual growth rate of 4%, this demand in the Sahel and Western Africa is expected to increase more than 250% by 2025.

Although the demand for livestock products in SSA has rapidly been increasing, it has yet to be matched by a similar growth of local production (Herrero et al., 2014). The highest projection increases in the consumption of animal-derived products, mainly from poultry by 2050 will be led by West Africa, followed by both Southern and Eastern Africa regions (Herrero et al., 2014). The same authors added that milk consumption is also likely to grow in all SSA regions by 2050, in which Eastern Africa is traditionally the largest consumer of milk. It is expected that there will be a shift from the livestock that are being kept for multiple purposes and local food supply to the improved animals being reared under industry conditions for sales and exports (Garcés, 2002).

In recent decades, the world food economy has been shifting towards an increased consumption of animal-sourced foods (Jayne & Sanchez, 2021). Although the global demand for beef is projected to increase by 95% (from 2006 to 2050), it is one of the least efficient in converting the feed-resources into that of the food outputs (1% calories and 4% protein), whereas poultry can convert 11% of the feed calories and 20% of the feed proteins into that of human-edible calories and proteins (Ranganathan et al., 2016). Meat, dairy, eggs and fish (all together) provide 40% and 18% of the world's protein and calorie requirements, respectively.

Africa's demand for livestock-derived food is projected to increase by a remarkable increase of 80%, in just two decades (2010–2030). Livestock products generally contributes around 17% and 33% of the global calories and protein consumption, respectively, but still, there is a large difference between rich and poor countries (Cardoso, 2012).

Constraints and opportunities of livestock production in sub-Saharan Africa

An increase in livestock production is likely to increase the supply of inputs, including feeds. However, poor-quality feed is one of the major factors limiting animal production, for example, dairy production. Most research conducted in SSA seems to be the cycling of the introduction and re-introduction of legumes, mainly for screening and observational studies. Most legumes that are tested so far are exotics, mainly Australian species and cultivars (Paul et al., 2020). The demand for meat, fish and dairy products will grow relatively strongly, which can induce additional demand for feeds (Claude Saha, 2008).

The Sub-Saharan Africa region accounted for less than 2% of the global protein consumption over the years (2013–2015); however, as the livestock sector intensifies, the use of protein recently is expanding across (most) SSA regions. Regarding the use of animal products/protein foods, Western Africa (43%) and Eastern Africa (32%) had the fastest records so far (Claude Saha, 2008). The region remains a net importer of most the feed-grains and protein sources, which has been resulting in high prices, which isn't conducive to an intensive production system (Claude Saha, 2008). As a result of an increased demand and scarcity of alternative resources, crop residues have become a limited resource in mixed crop-livestock farming (Valbuena et al., 2015).

Livestock production in SSA has been affected by technical and non-technical constraints, but the sector's future development depends largely on the availability of an increased investment (Balehegn et al., 2021). Compared to crops, animal agriculture is an extremely resource-intensive type (Ranganathan, 2016). Therefore, around 70–80% of all agricultural land is required for pasture and feed production (Foley et al., 2011).

Livestock production requires large areas of land and leads to high nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions (Westhoek et al., 2014). McMichael et al. (2007) suggested that since livestock production accounts for about a fifth of total greenhouse gas emissions, the consumption of animal products must be reduced. However, Otte et al. (2019) reported that the impact of livestock on the environment is far less in SSA than in Asia. Although climate change is a threat to livestock production, the global demand for livestock products is expected to double by 2050 (Rojas-Downing et al., 2017).

The biotechnological method is one of the paths that to improve the production and productivity of livestock. Biotechnology developments that apply to the health, nutrition, breeding and reproduction of livestock show improvements (Onteru et al., 2010). The SSA region may need to reformulate its policies and collaborate with international institutions to apply and implement biotechnological tools, in improving the performance of livestock production. The growing markets for livestock products could be an important contributor to economic growth (Herrero et al., 2014).

In addition to providing both a traction service (about 50% of the world's farmers) and use as a source of organic fertilizer, the recent growing demand for animal-sourced food presents a real opportunity for economic growth and poverty reduction in rural areas (Sadh et al., 2018). Meat production per livestock unit in SSA remains well below the global average (Claude Saha, 2008), which suggests that significant productivity gains could be achieved in the future.

Trends of the socio-economic contribution of livestock products

The world's per capita consumption of livestock-derived foods (eggs, meat, milk and extra) is being increased, but in the countries of the SSA region, this is either stagnated or declined or increased only slightly. Per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs in SSA was only 9.5, 23.9 and 1.4 kg (in 1995), respectively, which were about 27%, 31% and 20% of the world averages (Ehui et al., 2002). The demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors, such as human health concerns and socio-cultural values (Thornton, 2010).

The demand for animal products is not matched by local production, but the need for these products in SSA is expected to greatly increase by 2050 (Herrero et al., 2014). Contrary to the expectation, Bosire et al. (2017) reported that average meat consumption per capita across all income groups in Nairobi declined by 11%. Demand growth for meat and its products is going down that is mainly due to both the preference variations, within the region and the disposable income constraints, but the demand for dairy is set to expand faster in the coming decade (Claude Saha, 2008).

There have been variations in terms of growth and invariably to the extent that livestock can contribute to economic development (Chilonda & Otte, 2006). Growing demand for livestock-derived foods will likely remain strong in both low- and middle-income countries (Enahoro et al., 2019).

Protein requirements, malnutrition and per capita consumption of animal products

Insufficient consumption of protein-sourced food remains a persistent problem in the developing world, and the quality of the proteins also strongly comes into concern (Schönfeldt & Hall, 2012). These authors reported also that 105 mg nitrogen kg⁻¹ BWT, per day, or 0·66 g protein kg⁻¹ BWT per day of protein and amino acid requirements in human nutrition is the best estimate for a population average requirement.

Although energy/calorie is typically the most standard measure of food supply over times, protein intake is essential for body growth and maintenance. Developed and developing countries are getting around 60% and 22% of the dietary protein supply, respectively, which are derived from animal products (Idel et al., 2013). Animal-sourced foods have been identified as some of the highest-valued foods in the nutrient supply terms that certainly contain essential nutrients that are mostly available only in small amounts, or mostly missing from plant-sourced foods (Institute of Medicine, 2006).

Foods of animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption (Varijakshapanicker et al., 2019). Across the continent, the consumption of animal-sourced food is projected to increase significantly by 2050 and then a thriving and sustainable livestock sector will, therefore, play an instrumental role in meeting targets on food and nutrition security (Godber & Wall, 2014).

As their incomes rise or as they become urbanized, poor people universally wish to consume more animal-derived foods (Erdaw & Ts Beyene, 2018). The same authors added that a global total projected increase in meat consumption was being contributed by pork (40%), poultry (30%) and beef (24%). Dairy represents a primary protein source for most SSA consumers and fresh dairy product accounts for more than 90% of total dairy consumption (Varijakshapanicker et al., 2019).

Consumption in Eastern Africa is significantly higher than in the rest of the SSA regions, which is supported by per capita consumption of more than 100 kg in Somalia, Sudan and Kenya. Such levels are not only significantly higher than the rest of the regions but also well above the global average. Although meat and fish were being greatly increased in SSA (when considering total consumption (during 2018–2027)), they show a declining figure when evaluating them as per-capita consumption (Erdaw & Beyene, 2018). As developing countries get richer, the demand for meat is expected to rise by 73% (2010–2030) (Millward, 2012).

Consumption patterns of animal-based protein foods

The average per capita meat consumption in SSA is only 11 kg p.a., which remains less than a third of the global average (Claude Saha, 2008). Meat consumption preference is somewhat unique in the region. Poultry accounts for more than 36% of the total meat consumption (from 2013 to 2015), but beef (33%) and sheep (19%) contribute a greater share relative to the global average. Animal-based foods are typically more resource-intensive and more environmentally impactful than plant-based food produces. The same authors added that when looking forward, the total consumption of animal-based food, up to 2050 is expected to rise by nearly 80% (Ranganathan et al., 2016). Krausmann et al. (2008) added that apart from the protein quantity, qualities including bioavailability and digestibility are the basic issues, which lead to under-nutrition, including insufficient consumption of proteins (Claude Saha, 2008). Milk, meat and eggs currently provide around 13% of the energy and 28% of the protein consumed globally (Adesogan et al., 2020).

The results of the estimated and projected sizes of the meat and its markets in major regions of the world, and the relatively detailed market (projected) size of livestock products in Africa are shown in Table 2. As shown in this Table, by 2050, an estimated annual consumption rate of pork and poultry meat, in Africa gain the highest expected growth rate (3.3%), followed by egg (3.1%), compared to other animal-derived products. The minimum expected annual consumption rate will be for milk, which is projected to increase by 2.2%.

Table 2. Estimated market sizes of livestock products in Africa (in 2005/7, 2030 and 2050-in a million tonnes).

	Estimated consumption 2005/07	Growth		Estimated consumption	Annual growth rate
		2005/7–2030	2030–2050	2050	2005/7–2050
Milk	32.4	24.8	25.4	82.6	2.2%
Eggs	1.6	2.0	2.5	6.1	3.1%
Pig-meat (pork)	0.08	1.1	1.5	3.5	3.3%
Mutton	2.2	1.7	2.1	6.0	2.3%
Poultry meat	2.9	3.6	5.3	11.8	3.3%
Beef	4.3	3.9	5.0	13.6	2.5%
Estimated sizes of the meat markets in the major world regions (2005–07, 2030 and 2050-in mill. tonnes)
Developed	108.1	16.8	6.6	131.5	0.4%
Africa	10.5	10.3	13.9	34.8	2.8%
Asia (on average)*	33.47	23.53	16.63	73.63	2.63%
L. America	33.9	17.0	9.7	60.6	1.3%
Estimated sizes of milk markets in the major world regions (2005–07, 2030 and 2050-in million tonnes)
Developed	273.1	35.2	11.2	319.6	0.4%
Africa	32.1	24.8	25.4	282.6	2.2%
Asia (on average)*	59.03	42.63	31.20	132.83	1.73%
L. America	61.7	25.5	13.3	100.5	1.1%

Source: As cited by Pica-Ciamarra et al. (2014). Asia (on average).

* = average values taken from the data of ‘Near East (1), East - and South-East (2) and South Asia (3)’ as shown in Pica-Ciamarra et al. (2014).

By 2050, meat and milk will have the highest (2.8% and 2.2%) expected annual consumption rate, in Africa followed by Asia (2.63% and 1.73%-on average), respectively, but the minimum (0.4%) is also expected in developed countries.

Exemplary demands for animal-derived products, in Burkina Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda, are shown in Figure 2. All the following comparisons are based on the 2010 data. As shown in this Figure, by 2050, the projected demand for poultry is increased by 214%, followed by the demand for pork (161%), but the minimum (52%) demand is expected for mutton and goat. Additionally, Erdaw and Beyene (2022) reviewed and reported that the global consumption of chicken products is now outstripping that of other foods of animal origin. The same authors added that although chicken production is one of the fastest-growing agricultural sectors, such growth is not reflected in many SSA countries.

Figure 2. Estimated demand for livestock products (by 2010, 2030 and 2050). Source: FAO, Acosta and Felis (FAO, 2017) estimations. Aggregated data for Burkina, Faso, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda.

By 2030, the projected demand for poultry meat and pork is estimated to increase by 191% and 158%, respectively, followed by milk (135%) for the aforementioned countries in Africa, but the minimum (73%) incremental demand is for mutton and goat (Figure 1).

The results of estimated projections and trends (over the years) of livestock-derived products in SSA are shown in Table 3. Based on the projected data, the results showed that the net value of livestock production, in SSA has no consistency across the aforementioned years, but it seems increasing in recent years (from 2021 to –2030 to from 2022to 2031) and estimated production of animal-derived products (meat and dairy) has also increased by 0.12 and 0.29 kt (from 2020to 2029 to 2021–2030 and from 2021–2030 to 2022–2031), respectively (Table 3).

Table 3. Estimated trends of the livestock-based products, over the years based on the given indicators, in Sub-Saharan Africa.

	Growth		Growth		Growth
	2010–2019	2020–2029	2011–2020	2021–2030	2012–2021	2022–2031
Macro-assumptions:
The net value of livestock production	1.35	2.47	1.48	2.19	1.14	2.47
Quantity produced (kt):
Meat	2.36	2.21	2.51	2.01	2.59	2.13
Dairy	0.11	2.78	0.29	3.10	0.47	3.27
GHG emissions (Mt CO2-eq):
Total	1.34	1.31	1.38	1.43	1.68	1.42
Crop	3.56	1.57	−1.29	0.07	−0.86	0.04
Animal	3.56	1.57	2.42	1.85	2.57	1.80
Demand and food security:
Daily per capita caloric availability (kcal)	0.00	0.30	−0.05	0.32	0.01	0.38
Daily per capita protein availability (g)	−0.16	0.11	−0.09	0.18	−0.32	0.27
Per capita food availability (kg/year):
Meat	−0.23	−0.07	−0.31	0.29	−0.07	0.07
Dairy	−2.61	0.28	−2.38	0.54	−1.70	0.82
Self-sufficiency ratio of meat	−0.13	−0.24	−0.03	−0.70	−0.35	−0.37

Source: Extracted from 3 sources, as cited by OECD-FAO (OECD, F. A. O, 2022); OECD-FAO (OECD, F. A. O, 2021); OECD-FAO (OECD/FAO, 2020). Note: Least square growth rates; dairy includes butter, cheese, milk powders and fresh dairy products, expressed in milk solid equivalent units, daily per capita calories represent availability, not intake; self-sufficiency ratio calculated as Production/(Production + Imports - Exports) × 100.

Estimated GHG Emissions (Mt CO2-eq) by animal production, in SSA, have also reduced by 0.28 and 0.05 in the years (from 2020–2029 to 2021–2030 and from 2021–2030 to 2022–2031), respectively. Demand and food security, in terms of daily per capita protein availability (g), in the region has improvement trends by 0.07 and 0.09 in the years (from 2020–2029 to 2021–2030 and from 2021–2030 to 2022–2031), respectively (Table 3).

The projected results of the per capita food (meat and dairy) availability (kg/year) have an increasing trend, which is 0.62 and 0.06 in the years (from 2020–2029 to 2021–2030 and from 2021–2030 to 2022–2031), respectively. A projected result of the self-sufficiency ratio in animal-derived products, for example in meat has no consistency, for example, it looks to deteriorate by −0.46, in the years (from 2020–2029 to 2021–2030), but it improves by +0.33 in the next year (from 2021–2030 to 2022–2031) (Table 3).

Conclusion

This review work revealed that the consumption trend of developing countries has been shifting towards that of the foods of animal-derived products. By 2050, the projected demand for poultry, in the selected countries of SSA is increased by 214%, followed by demand for pork (161%), but the minimum incremental demand (52%) is projected for mutton and goat. Correspondingly, by 2050 an estimated annual consumption rate of animal-derived products (i.e. pork and poultry meat) has gained the highest expected growth rate, followed by egg consumption compared to other animal-derived products. Demand for livestock products, in SSA in particular has generally been increasing rapidly, but it hasn't been matched by the local production. Therefore, this region is being forced to be either an insufficient consumer of protein-source foods or remain a net importer. Multidimensional constraints can be mentioned for the aforementioned mismatching between the demand and supply of animal-derived products in the region. Hence, the need for policy revision that focuses on livestock production improvement might be one of the suggested solutions. Intensification might be helpful to produce more animal products while efficiently using natural resources. Feed efficiency might be improved when trying to match the typical livestock species with that of the feed source types.

Significance statement

By delivering trustful information, suggestions, comments and recommendations to the stakeholders, it is expected that livestock production can be improved. Subsequently, the consumption of animal products by society would be improved. Not only these, but also the incomes, and generally the livelihood of the society in the region could be improved.

Abbreviations

GDP = Gross domestic product; SSA: sub-Saharan Africa; TLU: Tropical livestock units; ANF: Anti-nutritional factors.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Mammo Mengesha Erdaw

Mammo Mengesha Erdaw is a senior researcher, in Livestock production and has PhD.