Prediction of groundwater drawdown and quality at Kyzylzharma well field in the arid Syr Darya Basin, Kazakhstan

Abstract

The geologically complex Kyzylzharma groundwater field is located in the south-central part of Kazakhstan in the lower Syr Darya Basin. It supplies the 243,000 population of Kyzylorda City by drinking and agricultural water needs. Numerical modeling was used to predict the consequences of increased groundwater withdrawal for future water supply needs. The results displayed a mean squared error for the groundwater simulations of about 0.6 m and was thus acceptable. The validated transmissivity was between 2 × 10⁻⁷ and 2 × 10⁻⁵ m/d. These parameters showed that the planned groundwater withdrawal will result in a depression cone reaching 90–100 m below present levels in 2040. Maximum groundwater level drawdown may reach 130 m below present levels. This drawdown increases risks for brackish saltwater intrusion into the main groundwater aquifer. The results point at the depletion of groundwater resources in the Syr Daria Artesian Basin and the risks for groundwater quality, particularly increase in mineralization. The key outcome is the recognition that effective joint management of the Syr Daria Artesian Basin’s groundwater resources, involving both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, necessitates development and operation of a joint numerical aquifer model. Building this model is a crucial tool for assessing the sustainable groundwater resources in the region.

Keywords:

• Sustainable groundwater
• Syr Darya Artesian Basin
• transboundary groundwater
• Uzbekistan

REVIEWING EDITOR:

• Sanjay Kumar Shukla, Edith Cowan University, Australia

SUBJECTS:

• Agriculture & Environmental Sciences; Earth Sciences; Civil, Environmental and Geotechnical Engineering

Acknowledgments

We appreciate the support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Author contributions

Conceptualization, Absametov M. and Murtazin Ye.; methodology, Ospanov K.; software and validation, Murtazin Ye.; formal analysis, Absametov M.; resources, Rakhimova V., and Berndtsson R.; data curation, Ospanov K.; writing original draft preparation, Rakhimova V.; writing - review and editing, Berndtsson R.; visualization, Ospanov K.; supervision, Berndtsson R.; project administration, Murtazin Ye.; funding acquisition, Absametov M. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Data availability statement

The data used in this study are available upon request from the corresponding authors.

Additional information

Funding

This research was funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. BR10965134 ‘Assessment of fresh groundwater resources as the main source and long-term reserve of sustainable drinking water supply for the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan’).