Developing fuzzy-based earned value analysis model for estimating the performance of construction projects. A case of selected public building projects in Ethiopia

Abstract

Earned value analysis is an important tool to measure the performance of a project to indicate what will happen to the work in the future. This study focuses on developing a fuzzy-based earned value analysis model for estimating the performance of projects. The model provides to make estimations getting closer and reduces the errors in calculations through the fuzzy linguistic terms. The data for this study were taken from projects which were done between 2020 and 2023 for the six sets of building projects. The data has been analyzed through a fuzzy-based earned value analysis model by using Microsoft Excel as a basic tool. It was found that the fuzzy-based SPI value for all projects was in Scenario 1, which implies that T(($\widetilde{\text{SPI}}$)≥1) = 0 and T(($\widetilde{\text{SPI}}$) ≤ 1) = 1, So the work package is behind the schedule. Similarly, the value of fuzzy-based CPI for all projects except one were in Scenario 1, implies that T(($\widetilde{\text{CPI}}$) ≥1) = 0 and T(($\widetilde{\text{CPI}}$) ≤ 1) = 1, so the work package is behind the budget. Finally, it can be recommended that it needs to properly monitor, and control the project time, and cost to recover deviation in the remaining periods.

Keywords:

• Construction projects
• estimating
• fuzzy-based earned value
• and
• performance

Reviewing Editor:

• D. T. Pham, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom

Subjects:

• Technology
• Engineering & Technology
• History of Engineering & Technology
• Engineering Management
• Technology
• Civil, Environmental and Geotechnical Engineering
• Engineering Economics

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The source of data used to support the findings of this study is available from the corresponding author upon request.

Additional information

Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

Notes on contributors

Girmay Getawa Ayalew

Girmay Getawa Ayalew is currently working as a lecturer at the Woldia Institute of Technology, Woldia University, P.O. Box 400, Woldia, Ethiopia. He is former a lecturer at the Gondar Institute of Technology, University of Gondar, P.O. Box 196, Gondar, Ethiopia. He received his BSc degree in Construction Technology and Management from Woldia University and his MSc degree in Construction Engineering and Management from the University of Gondar. His research interests include earned value analysis, system analysis, fuzzy logic regression modeling, emerging technologies in construction and project management. Email: [email protected]. Institutional Email: [email protected].

Genet Melkamu Ayalew

Genet Melkamu Ayalew is currently working as a lecturer at the Woldia Institute of Technology, Woldia University, P.O. Box 400, Woldia, Ethiopia. She is former a lecturer at the Gondar Institute of Technology, University of Gondar, P.O. Box 196, Gondar, Ethiopia. She received her BSc degree in Construction Technology and Management from Debre Berhan University and her MSc degree in Construction Engineering and Management from the University of Gondar. Her research interests include earned value analysis, performance management, project cost estimation and regression modeling. Email: [email protected]. Institutional Email: [email protected].