Forced displacement from Ukraine due to Russia’s 2022 invasion and the likelihood of a new wave of emigration

ABSTRACT

Russia's war against Ukraine caused the massive forced displacements. More than a third of the Ukrainian population left their homes, and many Ukrainians went abroad. Although the future migration prospects remain uncertain, the analysis of socio-demographic characteristics of the displaced persons, the traditions of labor migration among Ukrainians can facilitate the estimation of possible directions in the development of migration situation. The available data prompts the conclusion that a part of the refugees will decide in favor of a prolonged residence abroad, another part will return to their homeland, while the labor migration abroad will become a widespread practice. The volume and significance of these three migration tendencies depend on the war and post-war reconstruction results, which are impossible to envisage. However, the management of each of the three prospects concerning the migration of Ukrainians will require the development of a different political approach and specific targeted measures.

RESUME

La guerre de la Russie contre l'Ukraine est à l'origine de déplacements massifs et forcés. Pus d'un tiers de la population ukrainienne a quitté son domicile et de nombreux Ukrainiens se sont rendus à l'étranger. Bien que les perspectives migratoires futures restent incertaines, l'analyse des caractéristiques sociodémographiques des personnes déplacées et les traditions de la migration de la main d'œuvre parmi les Ukrainiens peuvent faciliter l'estimation des orientations possibles de l'évolution de la situation migratoire. Les données disponibles amènent à conclure qu'une partie des réfugiés optera pour un séjour prolongé à l'étranger, qu'une autre retournera dans son pays d'origine et que la migration de la main d'œuvre à l'étranger deviendra une pratique répandue. Le volume et l'importance de ces trois tendances migratoires dépendent de la guerre et des résultats de la reconstruction d'après-guerre, qui sont impossibles à prévoir. Cependant, la gestion de chacune des trois perspectives concernant la migration des Ukrainiens nécessitera l'élaboration d'une approche politique différente et de mesures spécifiques ciblées.

KEYWORDS:

• Ukraine
• refugees
• war-induced displacement
• emigration
• Russian invasion

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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

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Notes on contributors

Olena Malynovska

Dr. Olena Malynovska holds a Ph.D (History) and Doctor Habilis (Public Administration), she is an author of more than 250 academic papers (including 11 books). She began her career at the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. When Ukraine became independent, she was involved in the process of the creation of migration legislation and manadgement as a chief of department of Migration and Refugees in the Ministry for Nationalities and Migration. In 2001 she returned to academic work. Dr.Malynovska is a chief researcher in the Institute for Strategic Studies. She focuses on research in the area of migration and migration policy of Ukraine.