Polarisation or convergence? How the economy shapes party policy positions

Figures & data

Table 1. Measurement of state-market ideological dimension.

Economic position	CMP category
Pro-state	per403 (Market Regulation)
	per404 (Economic Planning)
	per405 (Corporatism/Mixed Economy)
	per406 (Protectionism: Positive)
	per409 (Keynesian Demand Management)
	per412 (Controlled Economy)
	per413 (Nationalisation)
	per415 (Marxist Analysis)
	per504 (Welfare State Expansion)
Pro-market	per401 (Free market economy)
	per402 (Incentives: Positive)
	per407 (Protectionism: Negative)
	per414 (Economic Orthodoxy)
	per505 (Welfare State Limitation)

Figure 1. Economic party polarisation, 1980–2021.

Figure 2. Economic party polarisation, individual countries, 1980–2021.

Table 2. Regression results: economic context and party polarisation 1980–2021.

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
	Economy	Economy	Economy	Left-right excl. economy	Welfare
Intercept	5.912***	5.072***	5.685***	10.220***	3.372***
	(0.779)	(0.746)	(0.799)	(1.058)	(0.459)
Distance to average pos., t-1	0.355***	0.359***	0.357***	0.360***	0.213***
	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.028)
Seatshare	−4.521***	−4.584***	−4.542***	−10.755***	−3.606***
	(1.150)	(1.151)	(1.150)	(1.460)	(0.634)
Party age	0.035	0.039	0.036	−0.066^·	0.012
	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.038)	(0.017)
Effective number of parties	−0.037	−0.001	−0.023	−0.279^·	−0.037
	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.150)	(0.068)
GDP growth	−0.256***		−0.192*	−0.232^·	0.042
	(0.076)		(0.092)	(0.119)	(0.054)
Unemployment change		0.534**	0.271	−0.340	−0.067
		(0.185)	(0.223)	(0.286)	(0.129)
AIC	7862.246	7863.316	7863.929	8407.553	6384.686
BIC	7903.248	7904.318	7910.056	8453.681	6430.813
Log Likelihood	−3923.123	−3923.658	−3922.964	−4194.777	−3183.343
Num. obs.	1243	1243	1243	1243	1243
Num. groups: el-cn	237	237	237	237	237
Var: el-cn (Intercept)	5.600	5.689	5.559	9.908	2.165
Var: Residual	28.079	28.105	28.088	42.965	8.268

***p < 0.001.

**p < 0.01.

*p < 0.05.

^· p < 0.1

Figure 3. Sociotropic salience of economy, 2002–2021.

Figure 4. Egocentric salience of economy 2002–2021.

Table 3. Regression results: public opinion and party polarisation 2002–2021.

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6
Intercept	5.862***	3.044*	3.191*	5.211***	2.781*	2.938*
	(1.038)	(1.282)	(1.256)	(1.012)	(1.199)	(1.191)
Distance to average pos., t-1	0.354***	0.364***	0.350***	0.360***	0.366***	0.352***
	(0.037)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.037)	(0.036)	(0.036)
Seat share	−6.637***	−7.098***	−7.379***	−6.584***	−7.064***	−7.381***
	(1.647)	(1.646)	(1.653)	(1.647)	(1.646)	(1.657)
Party age	0.027	0.056	0.059	0.024	0.054	0.060
	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.038)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.038)
Effective number of parties	0.038	0.075	0.165	0.074	0.094	0.173
	(0.156)	(0.149)	(0.153)	(0.156)	(0.149)	(0.153)
GDP growth	−0.244*	−0.110	−0.086
	(0.096)	(0.100)	(0.103)
Unemployment change				0.665**	0.335	0.158
				(0.250)	(0.258)	(0.285)
Sociotropic salience		7.612***			7.496***
		(2.174)			(2.153)
Egocentric salience			12.366***			12.554***
			(3.512)			(3.732)
AIC	4231.029	4217.907	4216.731	4228.535	4215.532	4215.080
BIC	4267.027	4258.405	4257.229	4264.533	4256.030	4255.578
Log Likelihood	−2107.514	−2099.954	−2099.365	−2106.267	−2098.766	−2098.540
Num. obs.	665	665	665	665	665	665
Num. groups: elcn	127	127	127	127	127	127
Var: elcn (Intercept)	5.515	4.550	4.634	5.395	4.480	4.646
Var: Residual	28.884	28.885	28.829	28.918	28.902	28.841

***p < 0.001.

**p < 0.01.

*p < 0.05.

p < 0.1.