A detailed study of a prominent dark web fentanyl trafficking organization

Figures & data

Table 1. Average weekly compound growth rates for sales, transactions, and quantity.

Category & Type		Period
		Week 1 – Week 27	Week 29 – Week 38	Week 40 – Week 46	Week 1 – Week 46
Dollar Value of Sales	Oxycodone	*25.3%	22.9%	−0.4%	15.5%
	Xanax	22.0%	44.5%	−0.6%	15.4%
	All Drugs	26.5%	25.4%	−0.2%	17.3%
Number of Transactions	Oxycodone	12.7%	10.2%	−12.6%	4.8%
	Xanax	15.7%	13.2%	−0.4%	6.5%
	All Drugs	16.9%	11.1%	−7.4%	7.8%
Quantity of Pills Sold	Oxycodone	27.6%	24.6%	0.4%	17.4%
	Xanax	22.0%	44.5%	−0.6%	15.4%
	All Drugs	24.6%	30.3%	1.2%	16.7%

* The organization only started selling Oxycodone in week 6. Oxycodone sales increased on average by 25.3% per week between weeks 6 and 27.

Table 2. Price variation and quantity discounts for Oxycodone and Xanax.

# of Pills	Drug	Count	Avg. Price	St. Dev	Coef. of Variation	Price/Pill	Discount
1	Oxycodone	750	$13.41	2.10	0.16	$13.41
	Xanax	1	NA*
10	Oxycodone	1,961	$98.74	58.73	0.59	$9.87	−26.4%
	Xanax	992	$24.86	17.40	0.70	$2.49
50	Oxycodone	3	NA*
	Xanax	69	$82.88	2.78	0.03	$1.66
100	Oxycodone	391	$813.45	109.03	0.13	$8.13	−17.6%
	Xanax	419	$133.83	13.03	0.10	$1.34	−46.2%
500	Oxycodone	45	$3,494.72	166.23	0.05	$6.99
	Xanax	9	$504.11	8.58	0.02	$1.01	−39.2%
1,000	Oxycodone	93	$5,371.76	510.08	0.09	$5.37	−34.0%
	Xanax	91	$669.73	89.94	0.13	$0.67	−50.0%
5,000	Oxycodone	20	$18,618.13	4,008.43	0.22	$3.72	−46.7%
	Xanax	11	$2,553.45	52.22	0.02	$0.51	−49.3%
10,000	Oxycodone	5	$39,406.00	545.68	0.01	$3.94	−26.6%
	Xanax	10	$4,700.00	421.64	0.09	$0.47	−29.8%

*Rows with fewer than 5 observations are suppressed.

Box 1: excerpt from a discussion on February 21st – February 23rd, 2016.

Shamo: Take a pic of more candy 500 micrograms And charge .. Idk 10 per candy ? Lieutenant: Do in singles? Or qty 10 again? Shamo: Yeah singles then 10 then 100 Then 1000 Do price breaks Price it what you want lol Lieutenant: So 3 listings..k And so you’re just going to lace the candy like with the spk Shamo: Yeah And do Valium candy too Lieutenant: Kk Lol Something soft … [19 hours later sends a picture of a bag of Air Heads Cremes bites] Best drug candy or what? Small little bites. And easily laid.. Shamo: We wanna buy these in bulk, so think large Lieutenant: I meant the candy style themselves Shamo: Yea, if we can buy the air head prices in bulk then it’s perfect :) Pieces I wanna make it semi cheap and bulk if possible Lieutenant: Gotcha gotcha I’ll make sure they are available in bulk before I list em Shamo: Noice Lieutenant: Can I just have the fentanyl and valuing just be sour patch also? Do we need to have a variety of candy? Shamo: Variety of candy, defiantly different to make sure it’s not mixed up and it doesn’t confuse customers. One product to one piece of candy Lieutenant: Aw so sour patch is one air heads is another gummy worms a third. gotcha Shamo: Yup yup The fentanyl candy will fly off the shelf So we wanna focus on that and the Xanax first Lieutenant: K. 500mcg for the fent right? [Shamo does not respond, so lieutenant pings again the next day] Hey when you lay these candies it’d be 500mcg’s of fent and 5mgs of Xanax per candy right?^4 Shamo: 2 mg per Xanax candy Lieutenant: Derp yeah. Ok. I want my descriptions to be I little bit better Shamo: Kk, if you want we can make stronger candies and charge more, your call

Figure 1. Weekly sales volume by drug type, in dollars.

Figure 2. Log of sales revenue, number of transactions, and quantity sold for Oxycodone in 2016.

Figure 3. Log of price charged for 1, 10, 100, 1,000, and 10,000 Oxycodone pill sales.

Table 3. Prices for 10 counterfeit Oxycodone pills by label, June – August 2016.

	Fentanyl – Roxy Oxycodone	Roxy – Oxycodone	M Box 30 – Oxycodone
# of Observations	112	664	189
Mean	$94.32	$95.02	$87.56
Std. Deviation	$2.74	$2.95	$3.55
Median	$90.80	$91.55	$82.76
10^th Percentile	$94.00	$94.00	$88.25
90^th Percentile	$98.00	$97.75	$90.55

Table 4. Prices paid by first-time vs. Returning customers.

# of Pills	Drug		Time	Sample Size	Avg. Price			St. Dev. Price			p-value1
					New		Returning	New	Returning
1		Oxycodone	Feb – Aug	140	$13.52	$13.36		2.08		1.64	0.435
		Xanax	-	-	-	-		-		-	-
10		Oxycodone	Feb – Sept	113	$96.27	$97.36		5.62		16.06	0.259
		Xanax	Jan – Aug	245	$23.47	$24.85		5.34		8.16	*0.0164
100		Oxycodone	Feb – Nov	11	$858.95	$808.64		66.98		118.08	0.165
		Xanax	Jan – Nov	52	$126.39	$135.40		24.22		9.45	*0.0085
1,000		Oxycodone	Apr – Nov	4	$5,512.60	$5,421.60		9.50		191.78	*0.0040
		Xanax	Jan – Nov	12	$654.28	$654.28		126.00		82.87	*0.0208

^aTwo-tailed test for difference in means (z-test for samples larger than 30; t-test for samples less than 30). When sales gaps existed, only data from the majority side was evaluated. For example, Figure 3 shows that there were sales of single Oxycodone pills between days 30 and 210 and then again around day 280; the sales of day 280 were excluded.

*Statistically significant at p=0.05.

Table A1. Postage amounts in medium- and high-value transactions.

Price ends in …	Transactions of $93.50–$498	Transactions over $500
$0 (i.e. even multiples of $10)	10	67
A known or suspected postage rate	1,007	735
Half a known/suspected postage	528	24
Fentanyl – Roxy Oxycodone price ending in $6.75		21
Roxy – Oxycodone price ending in $3		20
Other price endings	245	6
Total	1,790	873