Decarceration and prison release effects on crime: a case study of proposition 47

ABSTRACT

Progressive prosecutors have called for decarceration for many lower-level crimes, but critics claim such measures may cause crime to increase. To date, few studies have investigated the effects of decarceration on crime. In one example of a statewide effort to reduce mass incarceration, California voters passed Proposition 47 in 2014 to reduce penalties for some lower-level crimes. This study examines the effects of Proposition 47 on eight crimes using California county data from 2010 to 2019 and includes the prison release rate as a measure for decarceration. Results indicate higher rates of motor vehicle theft, shoplifting, robbery, and aggravated assault after Proposition 47 went into effect; however, applications and petitions filed under Proposition 47 were associated with lower burglary and shoplifting rates. Additionally, the prison release rate was related to lower levels of larceny, motor vehicle theft, and shoplifting, but it had no effect on violent crimes.

KEYWORDS:

• Proposition 47
• progressive prosecution
• decarceration

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. According to the California Department of Justice (2023), homicide is defined as ‘the willful (non-negligent) killing of one human being by another’ Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter are also included in the totals. Rape is defined as ‘penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any body part or object, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without the consent of the victim.’ Robbery is defined as ‘the taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person or persons by force or threat of force or violence and/or by putting the victim in fear.’ Aggravated assault is ‘an unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury.’ Aggravated assault generally includes the use of a weapon. Burglary reports include the unlawful entry of a structure to commit a felony or a theft, including attempted burglaries. Larceny-theft is defined as the unlawful taking, carrying, leading, or riding away of property from the possession or constructive possession of another, as well as attempted larcenies (California Department of Justice, 2023). Motor vehicle theft is defined as ‘the theft or attempted theft of a motor vehicle’ which is ‘self-propelled and runs on land surface and not on rails.’ The more specific crime of According to the California penal code, shoplifting is defined as ‘entering a commercial establishment with intent to commit larceny while that establishment is open during regular business hours, where the value of the property that is taken or intended to be taken does not exceed $950.’

2. Shapefiles were downloaded from https://data.ca.gov/dataset/ca-geographic-boundaries on January 1, 2022. The spmatrix command in Stata was used for this process, and the spatial weights matrix was row normalized.

3. The Hausman test was conducted to help determine if a random or fixed effects model was more appropriate for each of the eight analyses. This process indicated motor vehicle theft, shoplifting, and homicide could be modeled using a random effects approach, and fixed effects models were the best option for burglary, larceny, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. The authors note the interpretation of the primary independent variables, the Prop 47 dummy, the Prop 47 filings rate, and the prison release rate, were similar regardless of fixed or random effects models for homicide, motor vehicle theft, and shoplifting.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Jennifer LaPrade

Jennifer LaPrade is an assistant professor in the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Missouri State University. Her research interests include courts, prosecutorial discretion, and criminal justice reform.

Jordan R. Riddell

Jordan R. Riddell is an assistant professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Missouri State University. Some of his recent work has been published in Criminology & Public Policy, Journal of Experimental Criminology, and Journal of Criminal Justice.

Euel Elliott

Euel Elliott is Professor of Public Policy, and Political Science in the School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences at the University of Texas at Dallas. His academic and research interests cover a range of topics, including the dynamics of public opinion, voting behavior and the influences shaping public policy. Much of his work over the last three decades has sought to use lessons from the research into complex adaptive systems to understand various social and political phenomena. His most recent interests involve the application of natural language processing models and artificial intelligence to exploring political polarization and cultural conflict.