Probabilistic framework for quantifying infrastructure systems’ resilience against floods

ABSTRACT

This manuscript proposes a probabilistic framework to quantitatively assess communities’ resilience by simulating the state and serviceability of their infrastructure systems from the onset of a flood until the end of recovery. It comprises multiple interconnected models. Hazard model characterizes flood parameters (e.g., depth and velocity). Depth-damage curves estimate the damage to infrastructure systems’ components. The HEC-FIA mortality model characterizes the flood-induced casualties. Serviceability models determine the ability of interdependent infrastructure systems to meet the demand during the recovery process. The recovery models estimate the recovery duration and cost of damaged components probabilistically. The Monte Carlo analysis is employed to consider multiple relevant uncertainties, generating distributions of the flood-induced losses under various scenarios. The ratio of total losses to the gross regional product characterizes the community’s resilience. This framework facilitates the assessment of the impact of various resilience enhancement measures, guiding the selection of appropriate measures through a cost-benefit analysis.

KEYWORDS:

• Flood
• risk
• resilience
• probabilistic models
• serviceability

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/23789689.2024.2328977

Notes

1. Also available at: http://sina.sharif.edu/~hamed.kashani/supplementary/floodsimulation.pdf

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Asma Daneshifar

Asma Daneshifar holds a Master of Science in Civil Engineering from Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. Her research focused on developing models to assess the resilience of infrastructure systems against flooding events. Her current research interests lie in the broader field of infrastructure resilience, particularly the economic and social impacts of floods.

Hamed Kashani

Dr. Hamed Kashani is an Associate Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. He is also a founding member of the Center for Infrastructure Sustainability and Resilience Research (INSURER). Dr. Kashani’s research focuses on modeling critical infrastructure systems, such as gas networks, and their interdependencies, with a particular interest in the economic and socio-economic impacts of natural disasters. His work also encompasses investment evaluation for disaster risk mitigation measures and policy analysis for disaster risk reduction and recovery.