167
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Impact of climate change on dengue incidence in Singapore: time-series seasonal analysis

, ORCID Icon, ORCID Icon & ORCID Icon
Received 04 Dec 2023, Accepted 28 Mar 2024, Published online: 16 Apr 2024

References

  • Alto BW, Bettinardi D. 2013. Temperature and dengue virus infection in mosquitoes: independent effects on the immature and adult stages. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 88(3):497–505. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.12-0421.
  • Aswi A, Cramb S, Duncan E, Hu W, White G, Mengersen K. 2020. Climate variability and dengue fever in makassar, Indonesia: Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 33:100335. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2020.100335.
  • Banu S, Hu W, Guo Y, Hurst C, Tong S. 2014. Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Environ Int. 63:137–142. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2013.11.002.
  • Benedum CM, Seidahmed OME, Eltahir EAB, Markuzon N, Reiner RC. 2018. Statistical modeling of the effect of rainfall flushing on dengue transmission in Singapore. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 12(12):e0006935. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006935.
  • Betanzos-Reyes ÁF, Rodríguez MH, Romero-Martínez M, Sesma-Medrano E, Rangel-Flores H, Santos-Luna R. 2018. Association of dengue fever with Aedes spp. abundance and climatological effects. Salud Publica Mex. 60(1, ene–feb):12. doi: 10.21149/8141.
  • Caldwell JM. 2021. Feb. Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents. Nat Commun. 12(1):1–13. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21496-7.
  • Chen SC, Liao CM, Chio CP, Chou HH, You SH, Cheng YH. 2010. Sep. Lagged temperature effect with mosquito transmission potential explains dengue variability in southern Taiwan: insights from a statistical analysis. Sci Total Environ. 408(19):4069–4075 doi: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2010.05.021.
  • Deng Q, Zhao J, Liu W, Li Y. 2018. Heatstroke at home: Prediction by thermoregulation modeling. Build Environ. 137:147–156. doi: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2018.04.017.
  • Dom NC, Hassan AA, Latif ZA, Ismail R. 2013. Generating temporal model using climate variables for the prediction of dengue cases in Subang Jaya, Malaysia. Asian Pacific J Trop Dis. 3(5):352–361. doi: 10.1016/S2222-1808(13)60084-5.
  • Ebi KL, Lewis ND, Corvalan C. 2006. Climate variability and change and their potential health effects in small island states: Information for adaptation planning in the health sector. Environ Health Perspect. 114(12):1957–1963. Dec. doi: 10.1289/EHP.8429.
  • European Union, “Dengue worldwide overview,” 2023.
  • Francisco ME, Carvajal TM, Ryo M, Nukazawa K, Amalin DM, Watanabe K. 2021. Oct. Dengue disease dynamics are modulated by the combined influences of precipitation and landscape: a machine learning approach. Sci Total Environ. 792:148406. doi: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2021.148406.
  • Gharbi M. 2011, June. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, french west indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors. BMC Infect Dis. 111; 1–13. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-11-166.
  • A. Chew et al. 1961, February. A haemorrhagic fever in Singapore. Lancet (London, Engl). 17172; 307–310. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(61)91478-7.
  • Heng BH, Goh KT, Neo KS. 1998. Environmental temperature, Aedes aegypti house index and rainfall as predictors of annual epidemics of dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever in Singapore. Singapore: Institute of Environmental Epidemiology.
  • Hii YL, Rocklöv J, Ng N, Tang CS, Pang FY, Sauerborn R. 2009. Climate variability and increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence in Singapore. Glob Health Action. 2(1):124–133. doi: 10.3402/gha.v2i0.2036.
  • Hii YL, Zhu H, Ng N, Ng LC, Rocklöv J, Mutuku F. 2012. Forecast of dengue incidence using temperature and rainfall. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 6(11):e1908. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001908.
  • Hossain S. 2023. Association of climate factors with dengue incidence in Bangladesh, Dhaka City: A count regression approach. Heliyon. 9(5):e16053. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16053.
  • Kovats S, Ebi KL, Menne B. 2003. Methods of assessing human health vulnerability and public health adaptation to climate change (No. EUR/03/5036776). World Health Organization. Regional Office for Europe.
  • Lai YH. 2018. The climatic factors affecting dengue fever outbreaks in southern Taiwan: an application of symbolic data analysis. Biomed Eng Online. 17(2):1–14. doi: 10.1186/s12938-018-0575-4.
  • Lee SH. 2013. The effects of climate change and globalization on mosquito vectors: Evidence from Jeju island, south korea on the potential for asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) influxes and survival from Vietnam rather than japan. PLoS One. 8(7):e68512. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0068512.
  • Lu L, Lin H, Tian L, Yang W, Sun J, Liu Q. 2009, Oct. Time series analysis of dengue fever and weather in Guangzhou, China. BMC Public Health. 9(1):1–5. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-9-395.
  • MOH. 2006. Communicable diseases surveillance in Singapore. https://www.moh.gov.sg/resources-statistics/reports/communicable-diseases-surveillance-in-singapore-2006.
  • MOH. 2014. MOH | weekly infectious diseases bulletin. https://www.moh.gov.sg/resources-statistics/infectious-disease-statistics/2024/weekly-infectious-diseases-bulletin.
  • Myer MH. 2020. Mapping Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus vector mosquito distribution in Brownsville, TX. J Med Entomol. 57(1):231–240. doi: 10.1093/jme/tjz132.
  • Ooi EE, Goh KT, Gubler DJ. 2006, Jun. Dengue prevention and 35 years of vector control in Singapore. Emerg Infect Dis. 12(6):887–893. doi: 10.3201/EID1206.051210
  • Ou Y, Wang F, Zhao J, Deng Q. 2023. Risk of heatstroke in healthy elderly during heatwaves: a thermoregulatory modeling study. Build Environ. 237:110324. doi: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2023.110324.
  • Pham HV, Doan HTM, Phan TTT, Tran Minh NN. 2011. Ecological factors associated with dengue fever in a central highlands province, vietnam. BMC Infect Dis. 11(1):1–6. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-11-172.
  • Pinto E, Coelho M, Oliver L, Massad E. 2011. The influence of climate variables on dengue in Singapore. Int J Environ Health Res. 21(6):415–426. doi: 10.1080/09603123.2011.572279.
  • Polwiang S. 2003–2017. The time series seasonal patterns of dengue fever and associated weather variables in Bangkok. BMC Infect Dis. 20(1):1–10. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-4902-6.
  • Polwiang S. 2016. The correlation of climate factors on dengue transmission in urban area: Bangkok and Singapore cases. PeerJ. 4:e2322v1.
  • Preston BL, Suppiah R, Macadam I, and Bathols J, “Climate change in the Asia/pacific region a consultancy report prepared for the climate change and development roundtable prepared by use of this report,” 2006.
  • Reiskind MH, Zarrabi AA. 2012. Is bigger really bigger? Differential responses to temperature in measures of body size of the mosquito, Aedes albopictus. J Insect Physiol. 58(7). doi: 10.1016/j.jinsphys.2012.04.006.
  • Sim S, Ng LC, Lindsay SW, Wilson AL, Kittayapong P. 2020. A greener vision for vector control: The example of the Singapore dengue control programme. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 14(8):1–20. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008428.
  • Statista. 2023. Singapore: number of dengue fever cases 2021 | Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/963019/number-of-dengue-fever-cases-singapore/.
  • Struchiner CJ, Rocklöv J, Wilder-Smith A, Massad E, Chowell G. 2015. Increasing dengue incidence in Singapore over the past 40 years: population growth, climate and mobility. PLoS One. 10(8):1–14. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0136286.
  • Sutherst RW. 2004. Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases. Clin Microbiol Rev. 17(1):136–173. doi: 10.1128/CMR.17.1.136-173.2004.
  • Taghikhani R, Gumel AB. 2018 Jan. Mathematics of dengue transmission dynamics: Roles of vector vertical transmission and temperature fluctuations. Infect Dis Model. 3:266–292. doi: 10.1016/J.IDM.2018.09.003.
  • WHO. 2022. Dengue and severe dengue. https://www3.paho.org/data/index.php/en/mnu-topics/indicadores-dengue-en/annual-arbovirus-bulletin-2022.html.
  • WHO. 2023. Dengue and severe dengue. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dengue-and-severe-dengue.
  • Xu HY. 2014. Statistical modeling reveals the effect of absolute humidity on dengue in Singapore. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 8(5):e2805. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002805.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.