62
Views
0
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Research Article

Grow the pie, or have it? Using machine learning to impact heterogeneity in the Ultra-poor graduation model

, &
Pages 282-301 | Received 12 Aug 2022, Accepted 13 Jul 2023, Published online: 22 Nov 2023

References

  • Ahmed, A. U., M. Rabbani, M. Sulaiman, and N. C. Das. 2009. “The Impact of Asset Transfer on Livelihoods of the Ultra Poor in Bangladesh.” BRAC Research Monographs Series 39 (Apr): 339–380.
  • Almås, I., O. Attanasio, J. Jalan, F. Oteiza, and M. Vigneri. 2018. “Using Data Differently and Using Different Data.” Journal of Development Effectiveness 10 (4): 462–481. https://doi.org/10.1080/19439342.2018.1530279.
  • Andrews, C., A. de Montesquiou, I. A. Sánchez, P. V. Dutta, S. Samaranayake, J. Heisey, T. Clay, and S. Chaudhary2021 Mar 4. The State of Economic Inclusion Report 2021: The Potential to Scale. World Bank Publications.
  • Athey, S., and G. Imbens. “Recursive Partitioning for Heterogeneous Causal Effects.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113 (27): 7353–7360. [2016 Jul 5]. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1510489113.
  • Athey, S., J. Tibshirani, and S. Wager 2019. “Generalized Random Forests.” Annals of Statistics 47 (2): 1148–1178.
  • Azariadis, C., and J. Stachurski. 2005. “Poverty Traps“. In P. Aghion, S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth. (Vol. 1, pp. 295–384). Elsevier.
  • Balboni, C. A., O. Bandiera, R. Burgess, M. Ghatak, and A. Heil. [2021 Oct 11]. Why Do People Stay Poor?. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Bandiera, O., R. Burgess, N. Das, S. Gulesci, I. Rasul, and M. Sulaiman. “Labor Markets and Poverty in Village Economies.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 132 (2): 811–870. [2017 May 1]. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx003.
  • Bandiera, O., R. Burgess, N. Das, S. Gulesci, I. Rasul, and M. Sulaiman. 2013. “Can Basic Entrepreneurship Transform the Economic Lives of the Poor?” SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2266813.
  • Banerjee, A., E. Duflo, R. Chattopadhyay, and J. Shapiro The Long Term Impacts of a “Graduation” Program: Evidence from West Bengal. Unpublished paper, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. 2016 Sep.
  • Banerjee, A., E. Duflo, N. Goldberg, D. Karlan, R. Osei, W. Parienté, J. Shapiro, B. Thuysbaert, and C. Udry. “A Multifaceted Program Causes Lasting Progress for the Very Poor: Evidence from Six Countries.” Science 348 (6236): 1260799–1260799. [2015 May 15]. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1260799.
  • Banerjee, A., E. Duflo, and G. Sharma. [2020 Nov 16]. Long-Term Effects of the Targeting the Ultra Poor Program. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Banerjee, A. V., and A. F. Newman. “Occupational Choice and the Process of Development.” Journal of Political Economy 101 (2): 274–298. [1993 Apr 1]. https://doi.org/10.1086/261876.
  • Barrett, C. B., T. Garg, and L. McBride. “Well-Being Dynamics and Poverty Traps.” Annual Review of Resource Economics 8 (1): 303–327. [2016 Oct 5]. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100815-095235.
  • Barrett, C. B., and B. M. Swallow. “Fractal Poverty Traps.” World Development 34 (1): 1–5. [2006 Jan 1]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.06.008.
  • Barro, R. J., X. Sala-I-Martin, O. J. Blanchard, and R. E. Hall. 1991. “Convergence Across States and Regions.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1991 (1), Jan 1: 107–182. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534639.
  • Bernard, T., S. Dercon, K. Orkin, and A. Taffesse. The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Forward-Looking Behaviour in Rural Ethiopia. [2014 Apr 21]. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  • Bernheim, B. D., D. Ray, and Y. Ş. 2015. “Poverty and Self‐Control.” Econometrica 83 (5), Sep: 1877–1911. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA11374.
  • Buhl-Wiggers, J., J. T. Kerwin, J. Muñoz-Morales, J. Smith, and R. Thornton. 2022. “Some Children Left Behind: Variation in the Effects of an Educational Intervention.” Journal of Econometrics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.12.010.
  • Carter, M. R., and C. B. Barrett. “The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: An Asset-Based Approach.” The Journal of Development Studies 42 (2): 178–199. [2006 Feb 1]. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380500405261.
  • Carter, M. R., and T. J. Lybbert. “Consumption versus Asset Smoothing: Testing the Implications of Poverty Trap Theory in Burkina Faso.” Journal of Development Economics 99 (2): 255–264. [2012 Nov 1]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.02.003.
  • Carter, M., and J. May Getting Ahead or Falling Behind? The Dynamics of Poverty in Post-Apartheid South Africa. Draft paper, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin. 1999 Sep.
  • Chernozhukov, V., M. Demirer, E. Duflo, and I. Fernandez-Val. 2018a. Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, with an Application to Immunization in India. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Chernozhukov, V., I. Fernández‐Val, and Y. Luo. 2018b. “The Sorted Effects Method: Discovering Heterogeneous Effects Beyond Their Averages.” Econometrica 86 (6, Nov): 1911–1938. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14415.
  • Dalton, P. S., S. Ghosal, and A. Mani. “Poverty and Aspirations Failure.” The Economic Journal 126 (590): 165–188. [2016 Feb 1]. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12210.
  • Dasgupta, P., and D. Ray. “Inequality as a Determinant of Malnutrition and Unemployment: Theory.” The Economic Journal 96 (384): 1011–1034. [1986 Dec 1]. https://doi.org/10.2307/2233171.
  • Davis, J. M. V., and S. B. Heller. 2017. “Using Causal Forests to Predict Treatment Heterogeneity: An Application to Summer Jobs.” The American Economic Review 107 (5): 546–550.
  • Denteh, A., and H. Liebert. 2022. “Who Increases Emergency Department Use? New Insights from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment.” SSRN Electronic Journal. arXiv preprint arXiv:2201.07072. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4012071.
  • Emran, M. S., V. Robano, and S. C. Smith. “Assessing the Frontiers of Ultrapoverty Reduction: Evidence from Challenging the Frontiers of Poverty Reduction/Targeting the Ultra-Poor, an Innovative Program in Bangladesh.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 62 (2): 339–380. [2014 Jan 1]. https://doi.org/10.1086/674110.
  • Galor, O., and J. Zeira. “Income Distribution and Macroeconomics. The Review of Economic Studies.” The Review of Economic Studies 60 (1): 35–52. [1993 Jan 1]. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297811.
  • Haider, L. J., W. J. Boonstra, G. D. Peterson, and M. Schlüter. 2018 Jan 1. “Traps and Sustainable Development in Rural Areas: A Review.” World Development 101:311–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.05.038.
  • Haushofer, J., and J. Shapiro. 2018. The Long-Term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Kenya. Nairobi, Kenya: Busara Center for Behavioral Economics. Jan.
  • Livelihood, S. M., Cash Transfer, and Graduation Approaches: How Do They Compare in Terms of Cost, Impact, and Targeting? Background Paper, Annual Trends and Outlook Report. 2018.
  • Magnan, N., V. Hoffmann, N. Opoku, G. G. Garrido, and D. A. Kanyam. 2021 Jun 1. “Information, Technology, and Market Rewards: Incentivizing Aflatoxin Control in Ghana.” Journal of Development Economics151:102620. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102620.
  • Mallick, D. 2013 Jan 1. “How Effective is a Big Push to the Small? Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment.” World Development41:168–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.05.021.
  • Matin, I., and D. Hulme. “Programs for the Poorest: Learning from the IGVGD Program in Bangladesh.” World Development 31 (3): 647–665. [2003 Mar 1]. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00223-1.
  • Matin, I., M. Sulaiman, and M. Rabbani 2016 . “Crafting a Graduation Pathway for the Ultra Poor: Lessons and Evidence from a BRAC Programme in Bangladesh.” In Social Protection as Development Policy 2016 Jan 21 343–376. Abingdon, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom: Milton Park
  • Mazumdar, D. “The Marginal Productivity Theory of Wages and Disguised Unemployment. The Review of Economic Studies.” The Review of Economic Studies 26 (3): 190–197. [1959 Jun 1]. https://doi.org/10.2307/2295747.
  • McKenzie, D., and D. Sansone. 2019 Nov 1. “Predicting Entrepreneurial Success is Hard: Evidence from a Business Plan Competition in Nigeria.” Journal of Development Economics141:102369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.07.002.
  • Morel, R., and R. Chowdhury. 2015. “Reaching the Ultra‐Poor: Adapting Targeting Strategy in the Context of South Sudan.” Journal of International Development 27 (7), Oct: 987–1011. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3131.
  • Radosavljevic, S., L. J. Haider, S. J. Lade, and M. Schlüter. 2021 Aug 1. “Implications of Poverty Traps Across Levels.” World Development144:105437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105437.
  • Raza, W. A., N. C. Das, and F. A. Misha. “Can Ultra-Poverty Be Sustainably Improved? Evidence from BRAC in Bangladesh.” Journal of Development Effectiveness 4 (2): 257–276. [2012 Jun 1]. https://doi.org/10.1080/19439342.2012.686046.
  • Sansone, D. 2019. “Beyond Early Warning Indicators: High School Dropout and Machine Learning.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 81 (2): 456–485. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12277.
  • Wager, S., and S. Athey. “Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Using Random Forests.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 113 (523): 1228–1242. [2018 Jul 3]. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2017.1319839.
  • Zimmerman, F. J., and M. R. Carter. “Asset Smoothing, Consumption Smoothing and the Reproduction of Inequality Under Risk and Subsistence Constraints.” Journal of Development Economics 71 (2): 233–260. [2003 Aug 1]. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00028-2.

Reprints and Corporate Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below:

Academic Permissions

Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content?

Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below:

If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page.